Kursk Counter-invasion Day 13 Update 18 AUG 2024 18:30 PDT
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Total area: 1,556² km
Breach: 86.6 km
Depth: up to 36 km
🟧Ukraine control: 1,143² km
🟦Russian claimed/gray area: 413² km
🏁Ukrainian presence
💥Reported fighting
🔴Russian presence
1/n
Did you miss our last full update on 16 AUG 2024?
The Russian Ukraine War Report Podcast for 16 AUG 2024
Russian forces visually confirmed in Korenevo west of the Krepna River
Russian claims Ukrainian forces east of the Krepna River in Korenevo
Ukrainian forces geo'ed in Nikipelovka
Moved Kilychevka back to gray zone and the map adjusted
Kursk 5/n
Lgov OD
Not a lot of changes in the Lgov OD
We were about to pull back some of the areas assessed as Ukrainian controlled by the Russian Ministry of Defense, reported fighting near Safonovka, Kauchuk, Semonovka, Sheptukhovka, etc.
May left unchanged
Kursk 6/n
Lgov OD
More visual confirmation of Ukrainian forces in Russkoe Porechnoe and Cherkasskoe Porechnoe
No changes to the map
Kursk 7/n
Belitsa AO
Russian forces appear to have established a firm LOC from Goptarovka to Ozerki to Krupets on the so-called Prigozhin Line (cousin of Surovikin Line)
We moved Kamyshnoe to the gray area and have doubts about reports of fighting in the area of Giri
Kursk 8/n
Sumy Oblast
M142 GMLRS (HIMARS) was destroyed in an Iskander-M missile strike near Mohrytsya
M270 GMLRS [Insert it's an MLRS comment here] reportedly destroyed near Sinne was a decoy
Civilian areas of Sumy attacked by Shahed-136 on 17 AUG and SRBM on 18 AUG
Kursk 9/n
Kursk Counter-invasion
We have created an Excel sheet tracking control of hamlets, villages, and settlements
Ukraine controls 80 settlements; keep reading
Most of the 80 settlements are specks on the map
Ukraine has administrative control of 29 settlements
Kursk 10/n
Kursk Counter-invasion
The area Ukraine has military and administrative control over is almost unchanged from Friday
The increase in the gray area mostly comes from pulling the line of conflict away from Belitsa and Ukrianian gains in eastern Glushkovsky District
11/n Kursk
That's all
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16 AUG 2024 Russia-Ukraine War Report Podcast, produced in Kyiv
Russia has lost its ability to project hard power across the world because of its almost 12-year-long war of aggression against Ukraine.
Since September 2022, Russia's power has continued to erode.
A 🧵on Russia's failures.
1/8
September 2022: Armenia makes a CSTO Article IV request for mutual defense after Azerbaijan attacks, which Russia denies. Armenia has ended funding and participation in the CSTO, stabilized relations with Azerbaijan, remains in CSTO in name only, and recently called for the withdrawal of a small contingent of Russian forces still in the country.
2/8
November 2024: Uprising in Syria to depose dictator Bashir al-Assad - Assad asks Russia for ammunition, but all he gets is a ride, regime collapses, Russia withdraws forces and equipment, loses access to Khmeimim Air Base, and has military and commercial contracts at the vital Tartus Naval Base suspended. Moscow loses its ability to project power into the Mediterranean.
Last year, I wrote an analysis of Trump vs. Putin. I concluded there were two absolutes for both men.
1) Both hate hearing "no."
2) Both hate disloyalty.
When I wrote that analysis, I predicted they were on a collision course due to their egos and motivations.
1/16
As spring turned into summer, my hope faded as Trump repeatedly gave Putin "two weeks" despite it being painfully obvious that Witkoff was not the right guy to speak on behalf of the White House, and Putin was stringing Trump along.
2/16
There were flashes of improvement following the disastrous White House meeting on February 28. Trump and Zelenskyy meeting at the Vatican on April 26. The White House seeing through Putin's cynical "ceasefire" offer for Moscow's Victory Day Parade. Anger at the Palm Sunday attack on Sumy.
With Zapad-2025 just 3 days away, it would be foolish to dismiss tonight's airspace violations into Poland as "accidental" and not representing a threat.
This is not to say that Russia is planning to attack Poland using Zapad-2025 as a cover.
Military doctrine 101 teaches that a provocation this close to the start of major wargames on a nation's border should be viewed as a significant threat, and appropriate preventative measures should be taken.
1/9
It is extremely alarming that full ground stops were issued at Lublin and Rzeszów airports, as both are major logistics hubs for military aid into Ukraine. Rzeszów is also a major U.S. logistics hub for Eastern Europe. This is in addition to the ground stops at Warsaw and Modlin.
2/9
Tonight represents the sixth time Polish airspace has been violated since 20 August, with a clear pattern of escalation.
The incident, which some U.S. and European officials are openly calling an "act of war," comes less than a month after autocrat Vladimir Putin visited President Donald Trump in Alaska, claiming to seek peace.
3/9
Apparently, who feeds America needs to be explained to people. There is nuance.
1/20
Not all undocumented workers are exploited by their employers and paid slave wages. Many are paid a fair and legal wage. Some workers commit the crime of using the social security numbers of dead people and other individuals. Some of those workers are even assisted by their employers.
2/20
Legally documented workers here on visas with conditional social security numbers for work are treated like their citizen peers. Additionally, they are here legally, with a work permit.
It will cost Russia as much, if not more, to service the bonds currently being sold versus what the bonds are raising for the government in the short term.
Breaking the Russian economy is the path to peace.
As of July 11, the Kremlin was running a deficit of over 5 trillion rubles, almost double the available funds remaining in the wealth fund. April's tax receipts did little to improve the situation. This is a ticking bomb on a short fuse.
2/21
The Kremlin has been forced to nationalize industries, claim questionable wealth from oligarchs using even more questionable reasons, and continue to force companies to convert their foreign currency deposit accounts into rubles to prop up the currency.