Artur Rehi Profile picture
Aug 19, 2024 15 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Vladimir Putin is unlikely to announce mobilization, but will continue to use conscripts to replenish the army. A survey in Russia showed that the level of public anxiety after Ukraine's entry into Kursk increased less than it was when mobilization was announced.
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Putin considers mobilization even more dangerous for the government than the loss of the Kursk region, even in its entirety. The problems of the Kursk region in the eyes of Russians remain regional problems, and they will even survive the loss of the region as a whole.
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Mobilization will come to almost every home. There are still enough regions in Russia, but mobilization violates the unspoken agreement that was formed under Putin - the people turn a blind eye to the theft of the government, and in exchange, the government does not touch
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the citizens. Putin avoids mobilization, especially since there will be another call-up in October. Most likely, he will wait for it. Conscripts are another system of slavery in Russia. They have almost no rights, they obey the will of those above them. If they do not obey,
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they are given such a life in the barracks that they change their minds. They are beaten, morally abused. They completely belong to the system. They were sent to Chernobyl to eliminate the consequences of the reactor explosion without proper protection and equipment, to
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eliminate the consequences of other disasters. Along with prisoners from prisons, conscripts were used as free labor. Most often, they were sent to construction sites and field work. So, most of the facilities in Tallinn for the 1980 Olympics in the USSR were also built
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using conscripts. The quality of such construction is, of course, very low. By the way, the City Hall building, which was the location of the Kiev Opera in Christopher Nolan's film "Tenet", was also built, including conscripts for the Olympics. Then it was called the "Palace
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of Culture and Sports named after V. I. Lenin". Now it has completely fallen into disrepair and it is unprofitable to renovate it. There are discussions about its fate. Little has changed since the USSR. Only the service life has been reduced from 2 to 1 year. Instead of
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training, recruits are most often busy with construction, cleaning, loading and unloading, and other chores for unit commanders. They are a kind of enslaved peasants, and he is the master. Structure of Russian army is a huge topic and needs to be analyzed separately. It is
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a vertical hierarchy, closely connected with the government, state construction projects, the military industry, and everything is built in such a way as to steal as much as possible from the state budget, and in return provide models and Potemkin villages. If a big guest
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comes to town, along with municipal services, these will be conscripts who will be forced to paint the grass green and hide garbage. In general, inventing useless tasks for soldiers is a long-standing tradition in the Russian army. Rolling a square, plucking grass with
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bare hands, sweeping with crowbars. This is how commanders "instill discipline" and it is believed that if a soldier is not busy with anything, it is imperative to come up with a task for him. Therefore, the Russian army was never conceived as a normal army in function.
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Its main strength has always been simply the number of "peasants" that it could afford to throw at embrasures with machine guns, regardless of losses. But Russia is not the USSR. Its resources are much more modest, mostly left over from the times of the USSR. Deliberately
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keeping the population in poverty the Russian government found those who were ready to sign a contract, but now even payments of 2 million are not attractive. In addition, there was no Internet or communications in the USSR. Now people know a little more about what is
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happening. This is why people are not very eager to join the army. Conscripts also do not have to be paid. Before the Kursk, conscripts were pressured to sign a contract and so that is how they ended up at the war. In Kursk region they are now simply sent to the front.
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More from @ArturRehi

Jan 10
The outgoing Biden administration will be remembered in history as an example of failed U.S. security assistance policy. Enormous sums allocated by the United States for aid to Ukraine have remained uncontracted. Of the many billions of dollars provided through the USAI
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program, only $13 million were committed to contracts. Approximately $10 billion remains unused, and its allocation will be handled by the new administration. For comparison, $4.6 billion in replacement funds were obligated during the same period. While the United States
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Russia exploits the energy crisis in Transnistria to escalate tensions in the region and shift blame onto Ukraine. Moldova offered assistance with fuel and gas supplies, but the government of the unrecognized republic refused the help. Playing the victim and portraying
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Ukraine in a negative light now serves their interests much better. The same tactics are employed by other allies of Putin and Moldova's neighbors - Hungary and Slovakia. The Kremlin uses these situations as part of a massive information campaign against Ukraine, aiming
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Jan 6
Happy New Year! So many events have unfolded during the break that it’s hard to choose a topic for an article. Perhaps the most pressing issue today is the new offensive in the Kursk region. Since the operation has just begun, and naturally, the Armed Forces of Ukraine
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keep their plans secret, reports on Telegram suggest the offensive is progressing successfully. Ukrainian forces are actively using electronic warfare systems. Regarding the Donetsk region, Russia continues its advance, though the pace has noticeably slowed, which does not
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make the AFU’s job any easier. In Pokrovsk, Russian drones are operating intensively. Multiple sources have noted that the main issue on the Pokrovsk front is internal problems within the Ukrainian army, as reported by numerous military insiders. There are shortages of
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Read 18 tweets
Dec 16, 2024
This week, we received an answer on how effective the Korean troops are and how much they are helping Russia in the Kursk region. Footage of North Korean attacks demonstrates that they lack the skills to conduct modern warfare, which was not a surprise. They managed to
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capture several trenches, which were eventually recaptured by Ukrainian forces. The North Koreans became easy targets as they advanced through open fields in large groups. They proved to be ineffective, but it should not be forgotten that Ukrainians still have to repel these
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attacks, incurring their own losses. The situation remains difficult on the Pokrovsk direction as well. However, there have been some changes and personnel reshuffles. For a long time, reports from the area highlighted inadequate command, which led to the advancement of
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Read 15 tweets
Dec 11, 2024
No dictatorship lasts forever, and all dictators are mortal. Putin, due to his age alone, may "kick the bucket" very soon, although, unlike ordinary Russians, he can afford proper medical care. The events in Syria are clearly a significant blow to his nervous system and
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heart health. Such a scenario is now easy to imagine within Russia itself. The fall of Assad created a power vacuum in Syria, and now several countries are advancing their interests. Sunnis backed by Turkey, Kurds supported by the U.S., factions supported by Israel, Iran and
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remnants of Hezbollah, along with the remains of Russian units — all of it has become a chaotic mix. It's far too early to speak of an end to the crisis. Stability in Syria will not return soon. Over the years, Assad destroyed the moderate opposition, leaving only the most
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Read 9 tweets
Dec 9, 2024
Russia continues to advance and achieve local successes in the areas of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove. However, it is difficult to call this a success, as it comes at a huge cost in Russian losses. In this sense, the report differs little from previous ones from this section of the
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front. But the main events of recent days are, of course, in Syria. The regime of Bashar al-Assad has fallen, and it took only a few days for this to happen. Bashar al-Assad was the last dictator from the era of the Arab Spring. Ben Ali, Hosni Mubarak, Abdelaziz Bouteflika,
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Muammar Gaddafi – for various reasons, they are no longer in power. Among all the countries of the Middle East and North Africa, Syria saw the highest number of casualties and destruction. Protests, which escalated into a civil war, began in 2011. Losing power and control,
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Read 22 tweets

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