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Aug 20, 2024 11 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Kursk Counter-invasion Day 14 Update
19 AUG 2024 18:30 PDT

Retweet appreciated

Total area: 1,564² km
Breach: 86.6 km
Depth: up to 36 km
🟧Ukraine control: 1,148² km
🟦Russian claimed/gray area: 416² km
🏁Ukrainian presence
💥Reported fighting
🔴Russian presence

1/n


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Did you miss our last update on 18 AUG 2024?


The Russian Ukraine War Report Podcast for 16 AUG 2024

You can use our interactive war map

15 AUG 2024 SITREP

Kursk
2/n
link.chtbl.com/rusukrwar
google.com/maps/d/u/0/vie…
patreon.com/posts/russia-u…
Kursk Counter-invasion analysis

Ukraine appears to have entered another operational pause, and it's a good time to revisit this thread from August 15

Ukrainian forces have paused for 24-36 hours every 4-5 days since 6 AUG, operationally sound

Kursk
3/n

Glushkovsky AO

The last bridge over the Seym River at Karyzh into the Glushkovsky salient is confirmed destroyed

2nd Russian-engineered bridge SW of Rzhava, built on 18 AUG, is already gone, likely removed vs destroyed, fires to the east



Kursk
4/n
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Korenevo AO

Ukrainian advance west of Vishnevka visually confirmed, NASA FIRMS shows combat-related fires on approach to Komarovka

More reports that Ukraine captured Troitskoe, left in gray area

Assessment: Russian troops in Komarovka better know how to swim

Kursk
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Korenevo AO

No changes; Ukrainian forces visually confirmed at Nikipelovka (happened on 15 AUG)

Ukrainian forces east of Krepna River, Russian forces west

Ukrainian advances from Snagost will add pressure on the remaining Russian garrison to withdraw from Korenevo

Kursk
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Bolshoe Soldatskoe OD

Clear combat-related fires from the R-200 Highway, east through the gully that leads to Biriukovka and into the settlement east of the farm

Who is advancing on who?

Moved to the gray area

Kursk
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Sudzha AO

Multiple pro-Ukrainian reports that Russkaya Konopekla captured

NASA FIRMS shows fires in the settlement, and its capture is critical to support the advance past Ulanok

Moved to the gray area

Reports of Agronom and Komakov under Ukraine control, no change

Kursk
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Kursk Counter-invasion

Ukraine reportedly controls 84 critical points of infrastructure, hamlets, villages & settlements

Of those, 29 are under administrative control of the commandant office, all in Sudzha District

Most of the 84 settlements are specks on the map

Kursk
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That's all

Our resources and channels:
19 AUG 2024 Russia-Ukraine War Report Podcast, produced in Kyiv

16-18 AUG 2024 Situation Report

Russia-Ukraine War Map

Retweets appreciated

Kursk
10/nlink.chtbl.com/rusukrwar
patreon.com/posts/updated-…
google.com/maps/d/u/0/vie…
I also want to give a shout-out to @bradyafr, who gave us the thumbs up to use his defensive structure data with attribution last year

We hadn't updated the fortification data in months and pulled the new info

You should follow; he does amazing work

11/11
FIN

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More from @MalcontentmentT

Apr 30
Most of Russia's territorial gains were in the Toretsk-Niu York area of operation, capturing a handful of smaller settlements and villages and advancing using treelines into some fields.

203 casualties per sq km is brutal.

It's worth noting that Russia lost territory south and southwest of Pokrovsk, and we maintain that the area around Sribne is a giant gray area. Russian forces have not been observed west of the village since 10-12 April, and anything that was geolocated was obliterated.

It also appears that Ukrainian forces have finally stabilized new defensive lines in the Vremivka Ledge (Velyka Novosilka) area.

1/5Image
Coming into May, the areas that concern us the most include:

1️⃣The Russian bridgehead over the Oskil River north of Kupiansk - we maintain this should have been dealt with in February
2️⃣The Russian advance west of Terny/Yampolivka in the direction of Lyman and/or Borova
3️⃣Russia's reprioritization of capturing Kostiantynivka

2/5
In our assessment, the announced evacuation of families with children from several villages in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is more likely related to artillery and drone attacks and airstrikes.

Russian logistics in the Solone salient are FUBAR due to Ukrainian drones. We don't see a large-scale attack at Udachne and a Russian push to the west. Almost everything Russia is moving north of the Solona River is by foot, using the treelines and gullies.

3/5Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 30
The Port of Seattle shows a tariff-created consumer Armageddon coming?!?!

Not so fast, because the truth lies in the middle, and part of the story is being misrepresented.

1/6
You've probably seen this picture as proof that the Port of Seattle has no ships or containers left. Trucking has stopped, and the last ship from China arrived today.

This is Terminal 46, the closest to the Coleman Dock Ferry Terminal.

2/6 Image
And the cranes were shut down in 2019 because they are outdated and don't have enough load capacity.

By the summer of 2023, the cargo containers at Terminal 46 were gone, and the 88-acre facility is now used to store new cars.

3/6 Image
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Read 6 tweets
Apr 18
Since mid-March, Russia has carried out numerous multi-company and battalion-size daylight zerg rushes using cobbled-together Russian mechanized infantry formations. These attacks have not resulted in anything more than marginal gains. Repeated attacks by small groups of light infantry continue to be far more successful.

1/19
For the mechanized assaults, most don't even make it to the line of conflict, and what little does get past rarely consolidates any gains. In April, we noted two cases where not only did large mechanized assaults fail, but Russian forces ended up losing positions.

2/19
As soon as the localized Russian offensive goes sideways, light infantry and dismounts have no NCO corps to guide them. Videos show a lot of panic. Some run for cover in the treelines while others just rush across open fields. But there is no coordination. Drones pick them off. There is almost no close combat with small arms because they never reach the Ukrainian FLOT.

3/19
Read 19 tweets
Apr 1
A cautionary tale:

Israeli forces, police, national guard, internal security, Mossad, and the IDF are internationally known for their, shall we say, low tolerance.

Thousands arrested and held without charges for up to 5 months on sometimes questionable terrorist charges, a long list of accusations of human rights abuses.

Please don't mistake me for a pro-Palestinian. I'm anything but, and I am still embittered by the number of, ehem, "allies," that abandoned me on 8 October 2023 simply because they knew I am Jewish. No other reason. No, "hey tell me your thoughts on," just outright ended what I thought were friendships.

Sorry, I digressed. What's the cautionary tale?

1/10
In 2017, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu was charged with corruption, and he has done everything in his power to drag out that trial while working to gut the power of the judicial branch.

Wait, this sounds familiar.

In 2023, Netanyahu and his far-right supporters were pushing to change the Israeli Constitution to raise the legal standard for Supreme Court decisions, which would essentially gut the court.

2/10
Israelis responded furiously to what they saw as a slide into authoritarianism and Netanyahu's attempt to avoid prosecution altogether.

In the summer of 2023, there were massive daily protests across Israel and general strikes, and something funny started to happen.

3/10
Read 10 tweets
Mar 11
Analysis of Jeddah Talks Between Ukraine and U.S.

It's true! Zelenskyy does not have any cards because he's not playing poker. He just won a game of 3D chess.

The U.S. and Ukraine agree to immediately restore military aid and intelligence sharing and to a 30-day ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine War. Negotiations on the "mineral deal" will be restarted.

1/14Image
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Over the weekend, President Trump, Secretary of State Rubio, Vice President JD Vance, and Elon Musk made inflammatory statements and false accusations directed at Ukraine. Zelenskyy and his team didn't take the bait.

Hours before today's negotiation, 337 drones attacked Russia, and according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, at least 91 targeted Moscow. 🧂🧂

Drones and missile and drone debris rained down across Moscow, closing airports, rail lines, and highways and killing and wounding dozens.

That was part of Zelenskyy's 3D chess.

2/14Image
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Publicly and on the record, Zelenskyy is ready to accept a 30-day ceasefire. This undercuts the Trump administration and their surrogates talking points.

The U.S. responded by restoring military aid and intel sharing. This undercuts Trump administration critics talking points.

State Duma deputies are already saying there will be no ceasefire; Ukraine will use it to rearm/reconstitute its force in a month and attack us!

3/14Image
Read 14 tweets
Mar 8
The White House is setting conditions in the information space to justify a land invasion of Canada.

Someone needs to say it. The messaging is undeniable.

Unless the adults reenter the room, it will happen.

1/9
A) Questioning NATO loyalty and if the Alliance would support the US. Wrapped in a tasty sandwich of what if China attacked! That's not the real reason he is questioning the loyalty. Trump wants a coalition of the willing to help isolate Canada.

2/9
B) Calling the US-Canada international border and the treaty that created it "illegitimate." This is straight out of Putin's playbook, and not just in Ukraine.

3/9
Read 9 tweets

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