Kursk Counter-invasion Day 14 Update
19 AUG 2024 18:30 PDT
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Total area: 1,564² km
Breach: 86.6 km
Depth: up to 36 km
🟧Ukraine control: 1,148² km
🟦Russian claimed/gray area: 416² km
🏁Ukrainian presence
💥Reported fighting
🔴Russian presence
1/n
Did you miss our last update on 18 AUG 2024?
The Russian Ukraine War Report Podcast for 16 AUG 2024
Most of Russia's territorial gains were in the Toretsk-Niu York area of operation, capturing a handful of smaller settlements and villages and advancing using treelines into some fields.
203 casualties per sq km is brutal.
It's worth noting that Russia lost territory south and southwest of Pokrovsk, and we maintain that the area around Sribne is a giant gray area. Russian forces have not been observed west of the village since 10-12 April, and anything that was geolocated was obliterated.
It also appears that Ukrainian forces have finally stabilized new defensive lines in the Vremivka Ledge (Velyka Novosilka) area.
1/5
Coming into May, the areas that concern us the most include:
1️⃣The Russian bridgehead over the Oskil River north of Kupiansk - we maintain this should have been dealt with in February
2️⃣The Russian advance west of Terny/Yampolivka in the direction of Lyman and/or Borova
3️⃣Russia's reprioritization of capturing Kostiantynivka
2/5
In our assessment, the announced evacuation of families with children from several villages in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is more likely related to artillery and drone attacks and airstrikes.
Russian logistics in the Solone salient are FUBAR due to Ukrainian drones. We don't see a large-scale attack at Udachne and a Russian push to the west. Almost everything Russia is moving north of the Solona River is by foot, using the treelines and gullies.
The Port of Seattle shows a tariff-created consumer Armageddon coming?!?!
Not so fast, because the truth lies in the middle, and part of the story is being misrepresented.
1/6
You've probably seen this picture as proof that the Port of Seattle has no ships or containers left. Trucking has stopped, and the last ship from China arrived today.
This is Terminal 46, the closest to the Coleman Dock Ferry Terminal.
2/6
And the cranes were shut down in 2019 because they are outdated and don't have enough load capacity.
By the summer of 2023, the cargo containers at Terminal 46 were gone, and the 88-acre facility is now used to store new cars.
Since mid-March, Russia has carried out numerous multi-company and battalion-size daylight zerg rushes using cobbled-together Russian mechanized infantry formations. These attacks have not resulted in anything more than marginal gains. Repeated attacks by small groups of light infantry continue to be far more successful.
1/19
For the mechanized assaults, most don't even make it to the line of conflict, and what little does get past rarely consolidates any gains. In April, we noted two cases where not only did large mechanized assaults fail, but Russian forces ended up losing positions.
2/19
As soon as the localized Russian offensive goes sideways, light infantry and dismounts have no NCO corps to guide them. Videos show a lot of panic. Some run for cover in the treelines while others just rush across open fields. But there is no coordination. Drones pick them off. There is almost no close combat with small arms because they never reach the Ukrainian FLOT.
Israeli forces, police, national guard, internal security, Mossad, and the IDF are internationally known for their, shall we say, low tolerance.
Thousands arrested and held without charges for up to 5 months on sometimes questionable terrorist charges, a long list of accusations of human rights abuses.
Please don't mistake me for a pro-Palestinian. I'm anything but, and I am still embittered by the number of, ehem, "allies," that abandoned me on 8 October 2023 simply because they knew I am Jewish. No other reason. No, "hey tell me your thoughts on," just outright ended what I thought were friendships.
Sorry, I digressed. What's the cautionary tale?
1/10
In 2017, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu was charged with corruption, and he has done everything in his power to drag out that trial while working to gut the power of the judicial branch.
Wait, this sounds familiar.
In 2023, Netanyahu and his far-right supporters were pushing to change the Israeli Constitution to raise the legal standard for Supreme Court decisions, which would essentially gut the court.
2/10
Israelis responded furiously to what they saw as a slide into authoritarianism and Netanyahu's attempt to avoid prosecution altogether.
In the summer of 2023, there were massive daily protests across Israel and general strikes, and something funny started to happen.
It's true! Zelenskyy does not have any cards because he's not playing poker. He just won a game of 3D chess.
The U.S. and Ukraine agree to immediately restore military aid and intelligence sharing and to a 30-day ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine War. Negotiations on the "mineral deal" will be restarted.
1/14
Over the weekend, President Trump, Secretary of State Rubio, Vice President JD Vance, and Elon Musk made inflammatory statements and false accusations directed at Ukraine. Zelenskyy and his team didn't take the bait.
Hours before today's negotiation, 337 drones attacked Russia, and according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, at least 91 targeted Moscow. 🧂🧂
Drones and missile and drone debris rained down across Moscow, closing airports, rail lines, and highways and killing and wounding dozens.
That was part of Zelenskyy's 3D chess.
2/14
Publicly and on the record, Zelenskyy is ready to accept a 30-day ceasefire. This undercuts the Trump administration and their surrogates talking points.
The U.S. responded by restoring military aid and intel sharing. This undercuts Trump administration critics talking points.
State Duma deputies are already saying there will be no ceasefire; Ukraine will use it to rearm/reconstitute its force in a month and attack us!
The White House is setting conditions in the information space to justify a land invasion of Canada.
Someone needs to say it. The messaging is undeniable.
Unless the adults reenter the room, it will happen.
1/9
A) Questioning NATO loyalty and if the Alliance would support the US. Wrapped in a tasty sandwich of what if China attacked! That's not the real reason he is questioning the loyalty. Trump wants a coalition of the willing to help isolate Canada.
2/9
B) Calling the US-Canada international border and the treaty that created it "illegitimate." This is straight out of Putin's playbook, and not just in Ukraine.
3/9