Joni Askola Profile picture
Aug 21, 2024 12 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/12 Weak Leader: It has been reported that Putin has ordered the expulsion of Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region by October 1, further reflecting his waning control over the situation. Image
2/12 Vladimir Putin is said to have instructed his military to drive Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region by October 1, while not withdrawing troops from critical locations in Donbas. Image
3/12 There are now rumors that the russians are attempting to deploy a "mix" of units to the Kursk region from all fronts except for Pokrovsk and Toretsk, likely including conscripts as well. This suggests that russia currently has very limited "free" forces and reserves. Image
4/12 This suggests that the limited successes in Pokrovsk and Toretsk hold more importance for the Kremlin than regaining the Kursk region, reflecting Putin's disregard for russian territories and his few achievements in this war. Image
5/12 October 1 is nearly six weeks away, which is a considerable amount of time for a situation that is meant to be under control. His decision to set such a distant date indicates his desperation. Image
6/12 If the situation were genuinely under control, Putin would be demanding the removal of Ukrainian troops much more quickly. Image
7/12 Putin tends to establish deadlines to achieve objectives on the front lines, but these goals nearly always fall short. Image
8/12 It would be another humiliation if this effort fails as well, which seems probable unless Ukraine chooses to withdraw on its own. Image
9/12 Establishing a clear deadline could also serve as a means for Putin to hold his generals accountable. If the objective is not met, some may face replacement or imprisonment for corruption. Image
10/12 This is advantageous for Ukraine, as it will compel russia to deploy increasing numbers of troops to the Kursk region to avoid failing to expel Ukrainians by October. Image
11/12 This entire spectacle demonstrates that Putin struggles and is scared even in a scenario where he faces no opposition and has no free media. With the entire state and population ostensibly supporting him, he still fails miserably. He would never thrive in a democracy. Image

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More from @joni_askola

Apr 1
1/6 Look at the absolute disaster unfolding right now, and remember exactly who told you to vote for Trump in 2024.

The people who sold you this catastrophe should be discredited forever, and you should never listen to their political advice again🧵 Image
2/6 Remember the tech oligarchs who threw their billions behind him.

Musk, Sacks, Andreessen, and Thiel used their massive wealth, influence, and/or platforms to push this disaster on the public.

They only cared about their own power, ignoring the cost to regular people Image
3/6 Do not forget the podcasters and influencers who laundered his campaign.

Joe Rogan, Tucker Carlson, Paul brothers, Bradley Martyn, Dave Smith, and others relentlessly promoted him to massive audiences, trading the country's stability for engagement metrics and access Image
Read 6 tweets
Apr 1
1/8 Russia is still losing the unprovoked war it started in Ukraine, and not even Trump can save them.

If you are talking to people who do not understand that, here are the key facts you need to remind them of🧵 Image
2/8 Fact 1:

After over 4 years of full-scale war, Russia controls 0/23 regional capitals or special status cities Ukraine held at the start.

They took Kherson and lost it.

This 0/23 reality is a massive failure that Russia desperately tries to hide Image
3/8 Fact 2:

Russia currently holds around 20% of Ukrainian land, which is less than it did at its peak in March 2022 when it controlled almost 30%.

Controlling less land 4 years into an invasion than 1 month into it is a huge failure that Russia tries to hide Image
Read 8 tweets
Mar 21
1/5 Wild paradox:

Iran’s military has been incredibly unimpressive in this war, but it still managed to back Trump into a corner and keep the regime alive.

The war is existential for Iran, not the US, and when you combine this with Trump’s horrible planning, you get a disaster Image
2/5 Usually an underdog has to pull off a massive military upset to corner a superpower, as we have seen in places like Ukraine. That is not happening here.

Iran is failing militarily. They have lost almost every single ”battle,” yet they are still ”beating” the US Image
3/5 The reason is simple:

Tactical victories mean little when the enemy is fighting for survival and you aren't ready to go as far.

For Tehran, this fight is existential. For the US, it is not Image
Read 5 tweets
Mar 20
1/6 Time for some introspection?

Tech oligarchs have made themselves universally hated simply by revealing who they truly are and how little self-awareness they possess.

They are, actually, the best argument against themselves Image
2/6 Some have crossed the line from opportunistic greed into neoreactionary extremism, with figures like Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen leading the charge.

They insulate themselves from reality, and their absolute lack of self-awareness makes them dangerous Image
3/6 Andreessen recently gave an interview proudly admitting to having zero introspection.

We see the consequences of this daily.

When people wielding immense power refuse to ever look inward or question their motives, disaster inevitably follows Image
Read 6 tweets
Mar 20
1/5 Trump’s three main options in Iran are all bad for him 🧵 Image
2/5 How to unnecessarily corner yourself:

Trump is transforming pure military domination into a strategic failure because of bad planning and unclear strategic goals.

Trump's three main options in Iran are now all bad Image
3/5 After three weeks of war and despite dominating militarily, Trump is completely cornered in the Strait of Hormuz.

Stumbling into this severe bottleneck is a textbook example of strategic failure Image
Read 5 tweets
Mar 19
1/5 As Hungary approaches the April 2026 elections, Orbán faces a severe political test.

His failed rule has actively aligned Budapest with Moscow, obstructed European support for Ukraine, and prioritized Russian energy over Western unity, thereby ruining Hungary's potential Image
2/5 The economic reality of this geopolitical positioning is stark.

Hungary's GDP growth stagnated at just 0.4% in 2025.

It has completely decoupled from regional growth trends, falling drastically behind the expanding economies of neighboring Poland and Romania Image
3/5 This economic stagnation is tied directly to structural state capture.

Transparency International recently ranked Hungary at 40 out of 100 on its Corruption Perceptions Index.

It remains the lowest-scoring and most corrupt member state in the European Union. Pathetic! Image
Read 5 tweets

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