Joni Askola Profile picture
Aug 21 12 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/12 Weak Leader: It has been reported that Putin has ordered the expulsion of Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region by October 1, further reflecting his waning control over the situation. Image
2/12 Vladimir Putin is said to have instructed his military to drive Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region by October 1, while not withdrawing troops from critical locations in Donbas. Image
3/12 There are now rumors that the russians are attempting to deploy a "mix" of units to the Kursk region from all fronts except for Pokrovsk and Toretsk, likely including conscripts as well. This suggests that russia currently has very limited "free" forces and reserves. Image
4/12 This suggests that the limited successes in Pokrovsk and Toretsk hold more importance for the Kremlin than regaining the Kursk region, reflecting Putin's disregard for russian territories and his few achievements in this war. Image
5/12 October 1 is nearly six weeks away, which is a considerable amount of time for a situation that is meant to be under control. His decision to set such a distant date indicates his desperation. Image
6/12 If the situation were genuinely under control, Putin would be demanding the removal of Ukrainian troops much more quickly. Image
7/12 Putin tends to establish deadlines to achieve objectives on the front lines, but these goals nearly always fall short. Image
8/12 It would be another humiliation if this effort fails as well, which seems probable unless Ukraine chooses to withdraw on its own. Image
9/12 Establishing a clear deadline could also serve as a means for Putin to hold his generals accountable. If the objective is not met, some may face replacement or imprisonment for corruption. Image
10/12 This is advantageous for Ukraine, as it will compel russia to deploy increasing numbers of troops to the Kursk region to avoid failing to expel Ukrainians by October. Image
11/12 This entire spectacle demonstrates that Putin struggles and is scared even in a scenario where he faces no opposition and has no free media. With the entire state and population ostensibly supporting him, he still fails miserably. He would never thrive in a democracy. Image

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More from @joni_askola

Aug 22
1/8 Weak Cowards: There is no reason to delay the restart of cruise missile production in Europe. Image
2/8 At present, there is no cruise missile production outside of Ukraine in Europe, which is frankly absurd. The development of new missiles is not a valid reason to halt production. There is significant demand for these missiles, not just from Ukraine. Image
3/8 Ukraine has received Storm Shadow missiles, which have proven effective; however, not many more can be anticipated since none are currently being manufactured. While some are being refurbished, there is no production of new missiles. Image
Read 8 tweets
Aug 21
1/6 Will the russian lend-lease program be back soon? Ukraine could receive a significant amount of abandoned russian equipment from the area south of the Seym River. Image
2/6 Ukraine only needs to push a little further west to place the russian troops south of the Seym River in a difficult position, as their only options for escape would be swimming or using pontoon bridges. Image
3/6 The situation is somewhat akin to the right bank of the Dnipro in August and September 2022, but on a much smaller scale. Image
Read 6 tweets
Aug 21
1/8 Reagan would be ashamed: Donald Trump is surrounding himself with the worst possible individuals, which is detrimental to the United States, Ukraine, and the West as a whole. Image
2/8 With the US elections approaching, the competition is expected to be fierce. Donald Trump is staying true to himself by surrounding himself with the worst possible individuals. Reagan would be ashamed of the people Trump is surrounding himself with. Image
3/8 JD Vance, Tulsi Gabbard, Vivek Ramaswamy, Elon Musk, Robert Kennedy Jr., Donald Trump Jr., and David Sacks are all concerning pro-russian isolationist conspiracy theorists who have Donald Trump's attention. Image
Read 8 tweets
Aug 20
1/7 The intense situation involving Israel and iran, as well as its proxies, is far from resolved. Image
2/7 Delta is suspending all flights to Israel until the end of September, and several other airlines are following suit, with some extending their cancellations even longer. Image
3/7 iran and its proxies have yet to retaliate, likely due to concerns about the repercussions of a strong response, while also wanting to avoid losing credibility with a retaliation that could be perceived as too weak. Image
Read 7 tweets
Aug 20
1/16 Pathetic: We are approaching 1,000 days of full-scale war, and russia is further from achieving its strategic objectives than it was in March 2022. At this stage, only a lack of resolve from the West could potentially save russia. Image
2/16 russia's illegal and unjust full-scale invasion of Ukraine has been a complete failure. The fact that russia continues to engage in fighting near Donetsk and in the Kursk region almost 1000 days later underscores how pathetic this failure has been. Image
3/16 russia's strategic goals of 'denazification and demilitarization' necessitate a forced regime change in Ukraine, along with the establishment of a new authoritarian pro-russian puppet government supported by a russian military presence. Image
Read 16 tweets
Aug 20
1/8 Finally: Today, Ukraine voted to impose a ban on the Moscow Patriarchate. To clarify, Ukraine is not outlawing Christianity; it is simply banning religious organizations that are managed from Moscow. Image
2/8 The Ukrainian Parliament has prohibited the operations of the Moscow Patriarchate within Ukraine. The law will come into effect 30 days after its publication: UOC-MP communities are given nine months to disconnect from the russian Orthodox Church. Image
3/8 The Moscow Patriarchate functions as a russian spy agency and a propaganda tool within Ukraine. It is entirely reasonable for Ukraine to prohibit its presence, especially while facing an invasion from the country that controls the organization. Image
Read 8 tweets

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