Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Aug 21 13 tweets 2 min read Read on X
For the first time, Ukraine discloses real missile interception rates, moving beyond 'all intercepted' claims—average success stands at 43%

Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi, reported that from February 24, 2022, Russian missiles and drones struck 11,879 targets in Ukraine 1/ Image
Civilian targets made up 53% of successful Russian strikes, hitting 6,203 targets, while military targets numbered 5,676 2/
Missiles and Drones:

Total Missiles Launched: 9,590

Total Drones Launched: 13,997

Missiles Intercepted: 2,429 (25%)

Drones Intercepted: 5,972 (43%) 3/
Cruise Missiles (Kalibr, Kh-555/101, R-500, Iskander):

Interception Rate: 67%

These cruise missiles are more effectively intercepted, with a significant proportion launched at strategic targets 4/
Guided Missiles (Kh-59, Kh-35, Kh-31):

Interception Rate: 22%

Lower interception rate due to these missiles being launched at frontline or border targets with less layered air defense 5/
Drones (Shahed-136, Lancet):

Launched: 13,315

Intercepted: 8,836 (63%)

These drones were heavily targeted by air defense, resulting in a moderate interception success rate. 6/
Ballistic Missiles (Iskander, Tochka-U, KN-23):

Launched: 1,388

Interception Rate: 4.5%

Extremely low interception rate, making these missiles a significant threat, particularly to civilian infrastructure 7/
Anti-Aircraft Missiles Modified to Hit Ground (S-300, S-400):

Launched: 3,008

Interception Rate: 0.63%

These missiles targeted 4,293 objects, primarily civilian (3,196) but also military (1,097) 8/
Kh-22 and Kh-32 Missiles:

Launched: 362

Intercepted: 2 (0.55%)

These missiles, launched from Tu-22M3 bombers, require modern interception systems due to their speed and trajectory 9/
"Onyx" Missile:

Launched: 211

Intercepted: 12 (5.7%)

High-speed missile with a low interception rate, posing a significant risk to both civilian and military targets 10/
Hypersonic Weapons (Kh-47M2 "Kinzhal"):

Launched: 111

Intercepted: 28 (25%)

These hypersonic missiles mainly targeted civilian infrastructure, with a notable portion being intercepted 11/
"Zircon" Missile:

Launched: 6

Intercepted: 2

Struck civilian targets four times, demonstrating the challenges of intercepting truly hypersonic weapons 12X
Source, in Ukrainian pravda.com.ua/news/2024/08/2…

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More from @Mylovanov

Aug 22
I disagree with the @TheStudyofWar’s viral assessment. The report they cite does not make any connection between Kursk and Donbas in the reasoning of Russian officials. Instead, it clearly states that to push Ukraine out of Kursk, Russia would need to conduct mobilization1/
To push Ukraine out of Kursk, Russian officials believe it would take several months with existing resources (an assessment they consider optimistic) using the regular army. The alternative—another mobilization—is strongly opposed by Russian elites 2/
The reasons for opposition become clear from this revealing quote: they fear the labor market will collapse.

“This would deplete the last remaining labor resources from the economy. We're already facing a severe workforce shortage.” 3/
Read 7 tweets
Aug 21
Ukraine's parliament passed legislation to ban religious organizations with ties to Russia, targeting the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP)

I am split about this decision. This church has long become a branch of Russia state propaganda in Ukraine 1/ Image
But it still public masquerades as a church. And so this Ukrainian move can and will be interpreted by Russia, its proxies, and some of anti-Ukrainian establishment in the US as curtailing the freedom of religion in Ukraine 2/
The law was approved with 265 MPs in favor and 29 against, signaling strong parliamentary support for the measure 3/
Read 9 tweets
Aug 18
Ukraine’s bold move into Kursk leaves Russia reeling, challenging Putin’s narrative and testing the strength of his social contract with the Russian people, writes @AVacroux Image
This is a fresh American perspective from someone who doesn't theorize from afar like Mearsheimer, but instead goes into the field to gain firsthand understanding

@AVacroux writes from Kyiv after joining the Kyiv School of Economics during a year-long leave from Harvard 2/
Ukraine's incursion reveals--as did the Prigozhin mutiny a year ago, and the terrorist attack at Moscow's Crocus City this March --that for all its authoritarian bluster, Putin’s control over Russia's territory is not as solid as he would like the world to believe 3/
Read 10 tweets
Aug 17
A fantastic and unbiased article about Ukrainian offensive in Kursk, key lessons and implications

The Economist: For the first time since the second world war, Russia has been invaded, but ...

morally and legally, Ukraine has every right to take the fight into Russia 1/ Image
Ukraine’s Kursk offensive has already achieved: morale boost at home, a proof that Ukraine can regain the initiative, expose Russia’s vulnerabilities 2/
The incursion shows that "Mr Putin’s carefully constructed image of strength and control is hollow" 3/
Read 6 tweets
Aug 17
Planned cease-fire talks between Ukraine and Russia collapse as Kyiv launches unexpected incursion into Kursk, WP 1/ Image
“Putin has said many times that any peace agreement should take into account the facts on the ground and that Russia will not leave the territory it has taken,” said Sergei Markov, a Kremlin-connected political analyst 2/
Ukraine is trying “to break this formula and gain Russian territory to exchange,” he added.

Well, yes, any negotiations now have to respect realities on the ground, which means part of Russia becomes Ukraine, if we follow Putin’s formula 3/
Read 9 tweets
Aug 17
Russian conscripts in Kursk are surrendering en masse, citing fear of Ukrainian heavy armor, a lack of air defense, and complete abandonment by Kadyrov’s forces. Estimates suggest that up to 2,000 Russian soldiers have been captured by Ukraine 1/
Ukrainian forces claim control over 82 settlements in Russia's Kursk region, establishing their first military administration in occupied Russian territory 2/
The Independent reported that about two thousand Russian soldiers surrendered during the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region 3/
Read 10 tweets

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