I disagree with the @TheStudyofWar’s viral assessment. The report they cite does not make any connection between Kursk and Donbas in the reasoning of Russian officials. Instead, it clearly states that to push Ukraine out of Kursk, Russia would need to conduct mobilization1/
To push Ukraine out of Kursk, Russian officials believe it would take several months with existing resources (an assessment they consider optimistic) using the regular army. The alternative—another mobilization—is strongly opposed by Russian elites 2/
The reasons for opposition become clear from this revealing quote: they fear the labor market will collapse.
“This would deplete the last remaining labor resources from the economy. We're already facing a severe workforce shortage.” 3/
Ukraine's parliament passed legislation to ban religious organizations with ties to Russia, targeting the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP)
I am split about this decision. This church has long become a branch of Russia state propaganda in Ukraine 1/
But it still public masquerades as a church. And so this Ukrainian move can and will be interpreted by Russia, its proxies, and some of anti-Ukrainian establishment in the US as curtailing the freedom of religion in Ukraine 2/
The law was approved with 265 MPs in favor and 29 against, signaling strong parliamentary support for the measure 3/
Ukraine’s bold move into Kursk leaves Russia reeling, challenging Putin’s narrative and testing the strength of his social contract with the Russian people, writes @AVacroux
This is a fresh American perspective from someone who doesn't theorize from afar like Mearsheimer, but instead goes into the field to gain firsthand understanding
@AVacroux writes from Kyiv after joining the Kyiv School of Economics during a year-long leave from Harvard 2/
Ukraine's incursion reveals--as did the Prigozhin mutiny a year ago, and the terrorist attack at Moscow's Crocus City this March --that for all its authoritarian bluster, Putin’s control over Russia's territory is not as solid as he would like the world to believe 3/
A fantastic and unbiased article about Ukrainian offensive in Kursk, key lessons and implications
The Economist: For the first time since the second world war, Russia has been invaded, but ...
morally and legally, Ukraine has every right to take the fight into Russia 1/
Ukraine’s Kursk offensive has already achieved: morale boost at home, a proof that Ukraine can regain the initiative, expose Russia’s vulnerabilities 2/
The incursion shows that "Mr Putin’s carefully constructed image of strength and control is hollow" 3/
Planned cease-fire talks between Ukraine and Russia collapse as Kyiv launches unexpected incursion into Kursk, WP 1/
“Putin has said many times that any peace agreement should take into account the facts on the ground and that Russia will not leave the territory it has taken,” said Sergei Markov, a Kremlin-connected political analyst 2/
Ukraine is trying “to break this formula and gain Russian territory to exchange,” he added.
Well, yes, any negotiations now have to respect realities on the ground, which means part of Russia becomes Ukraine, if we follow Putin’s formula 3/
Russian conscripts in Kursk are surrendering en masse, citing fear of Ukrainian heavy armor, a lack of air defense, and complete abandonment by Kadyrov’s forces. Estimates suggest that up to 2,000 Russian soldiers have been captured by Ukraine 1/
Ukrainian forces claim control over 82 settlements in Russia's Kursk region, establishing their first military administration in occupied Russian territory 2/
The Independent reported that about two thousand Russian soldiers surrendered during the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region 3/