Thread by @ColbyBadhwar

Better to ask for forgiveness than for permission: Ukraine's Kursk Operation has outmanoeuvred both Russia & United States.

The Biden Administration has been boxed in and forced to give tacit approval to an operation they didn't know of & are still reticent about.

1/22 🧵

If you want my full analysis on Kursk, check out my latest piece for @InsiderEng. It was submitted a week ago, so it predates the latest news. This thread will focus on the key grand strategic outcomes; no tactical or operational analysis here.

2/22

theins.press/en/opinion/col…

Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine has been fighting two fronts: Russia on the battlefields and intransigent western governments in the halls of power. Fear of escalation has severely limited the quantity and quality of weapons willingly provided to Ukraine.

3/22

Ukraine has been forced to comply with absurd restrictions placed on them out of fear that it would jeopardize what security assistance they do receive from the United States. Efforts by the UK to have the Biden Admin lift the restrictions have been unsuccessful.

4/22

None of Ukraine's arguments have resolved the fundamental problem: Russia is free to strike all of Ukrainian territory with impunity, but Ukraine cannot respond in kind. The Biden Administration remains adamant that "deep strikes" are both too escalatory & unnecessary.

5/22

Of course, at the end of May/beginning of June, the Biden Admin implemented an extremely limited policy change that allowed Ukraine to defend itself against attacks coming across the border from Belgorod, and later Kursk Oblasts. Long-range fires remained prohibited.

6/22

This change was really too little, too late though. Had Ukraine been granted permission sooner, they could have disrupted Russia's Kharkiv offensive before it was launched. By the time Ukraine fired its first defensive strike on Belgorod, Russia had almost culminated.

7/22

Despite indicating that the policy could be further revised, over the past 11 weeks, there has been no change. Ukraine has been put in the impossible position of having to continue fighting with 1 hand behind their back, because President Biden is afraid of Vladimir Putin.

8/22

No argument that Ukraine has made, no action they have taken — striking Russian energy infrastructure, an early ballistic missile warning radar, and other strategic targets — has been able to convince the Biden Admin that Russia will not escalate. What else could they do?

9/22

𝙀𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙧 𝙆𝙪𝙧𝙨𝙠:

President Zelensky made a decision to start pushing the envelop; to test the seriousness of Biden's threats of terminating aid if they violate the conditions. The operation caught the Russians, the United States, and us analysts off guard.

10/22

The differing initial reactions from the Biden Admin and the Europeans was an interesting contrast. With the latter giving their approval, and the former's John Kirby saying they were: “reaching out to our Ukrainian counterparts to get a little bit better understanding.”

11/22

The next day, the Pentagon bizarrely claimed that: “It is consistent with our policy and we have supported Ukraine from the very beginning to defend themselves against attacks that are coming across the border.”

This is of course not true, as that policy dates to June.

12/22

The policy never permitted Ukraine to use American weapons to launch large-scale ground operations into Russia. Attacking a quiet section of the border in Kursk violates the conditions that Ukraine can only return fire or target imminent threats.

13/22

I am sure there will be no shortage of clueless individuals claiming without evidence that Ukraine was given more latitude than what was publicly disclosed, but this is obviously untrue. All evidence shows that the Admin did not know & remains skeptical of the operation.

14/22

The State Department said they were not told.

The White House said they were not told.

The Pentagon said they were not told.

15/22

In on background conversations with US government officials, the media (including NYT, and WSJ, to name a few) has been told the same thing.

16/22

If that wasn't enough already, President Zelensky himself has said that "no one knew about our preparations". He goes on to speak at length about the strategic calculus behind the operation. The primary motivation is of course the destruction of Putin's illusory red lines.

17/22

By taking the fight onto sovereign Russian territory, Ukraine has further demonstrated the hollowness of the Kremlin's nuclear sabre rattling. They have shifted the Overton Window & forced the Biden Admin top tacitly accept a new status quo in how US weapons can be used.

18/22

This was of course not without risk, but President Zelensky correctly calculated that it would be more dangerous to continue fighting with one hand tied behind the back. The strong show of support from both Europe and the US Congress has helped further box Biden in.

19/22

The task ahead for Ukraine is to maintain momentum; not just for the ongoing operation on the ground, but for the political and strategic communications campaign too. They haven’t wasted much time; they've already made a formal request to use ATACMS to hit airbases.

20/22

How President Biden responds next will be instructive to the Ukrainians on their next course of action. If the request is denied, or placed in review purgatory, President Zelensky may once again elect to ask for forgiveness rather than permission.

21/22

Churchill never actually said it, but a quote attributed to him reads: “You can depend on Americans to do the right thing when they have exhausted every other possibility.” Will Biden exhaust all possibilities? Or will he lead, and help Kyiv deliver a knockout blow?

22/22