Around August 16th, a video circulated on Telegram, showing a Ukrainian soldier's severed head on a pole, reportedly filmed by a member of the 155th Brigade. This should be seen not just as an isolated act of cruelty but as part of a larger, systematic approach.
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2/ Before discussing the issue, let's clarify several points. The video went viral after the notorious Russian unit "Rusich" posted it on their Telegram channel on August 16th. They praised the 155th Brigade, stating that this was an appropriate response to "pigs."
3/ This is not the first instance of the 155th Brigade engaging in such cruelty. In March 2022, the same brigade was involved in the occupation of Bucha, an event documented in the official report by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights.
4/ While isolated cruelty can occur in a war involving over a million troops, encouragement of such crimes is a different level of severity. For instance, following the notorious Bucha massacre, Putin awarded the 155th Brigade an honorary title after their withdrawal from Bucha.
5/ The issue extends beyond the 155th Brigade itself. There are multiple reports and videos of acts of torture, execution, dismemberment, sexual violence, and castration committed by other Russian forces. These actions occur with minimal or no repercussions at all.
6/ One aspect of this approach is that violence is not just intended to terrorize Ukrainians into submission - few would be swayed to surrender by such brutality. Instead, the goal is to provoke a violent response from Ukrainians, thus discouraging RU troops from surrendering
7/ Despite the cruelty and torture endured by Ukrainians, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have shown remarkable restraint. This is evident in the Kursk region, where, unlike the Russian actions in Izyum, Bucha, and other towns, there have been no acts of revenge or massacres.
8/ This not only debunks the "bothsidesing" fallacy but also shows the world that Ukraine holds the moral high ground and remains committed to its international legal obligations. Unfortunately, this significant fact seems to be frequently overlooked.
9/ States that encourage systematic violence and crimes should be treated similarly to ISIS, with a comparable response to completely stop such behavior.
Verbal condemnations have proven ineffective against ISIS and are unlikely to be effective against Russia.
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Frontelligence Insight Special Report: AWOL Trends and Casualty Ratios in Russia and Ukraine
In assessing overall manpower casualty ratios, we analyzed Russian AWOL figures alongside Ukrainian estimates, factoring in KIA, MIA, and recruitment rates to assess the war’s prospects
2/ Thanks to @InformNapalm, a Ukrainian OSINT community, we analyzed a screenshot of a Russian presentation slide detailing desertion numbers. The percentage and corresponding figures allowed us to calculate the total number of AWOL cases across all Russian military districts.
3/ As shown in the translated graph, the Southern MD has the highest number of desertion cases. This is unsurprising, as it includes the former 1st and 2nd Army Corps (now the 51st and 3rd CAAs), which are largely composed of forcibly mobilized residents from occupied territories
One of the most critical yet unresolved questions of this war is the true impact of drone attacks inside Russia. Our team has been working with media organizations and volunteers to tackle this. But finding the answer isn’t easy, and we need your support. Here’s how you can help:
2/ The simplest and most effective way to support our investigation is through donations. This helps cover essential expenses like satellite imagery, expert analysis, and time. You can donate via BuyMeaCoffee:
3/ We’re also looking for volunteers to assess the damage, particularly those with expertise in damage surveys, industrial building damage assessments, and the oil and gas industry: especially in evaluating potential refinery damage. Feel free to contact us at
frontel@proton.me
As we move into the second month of the year, Frontelligence Insight has prepared an early assessment report covering recent developments on the frontlines and within both Ukrainian and Russian military forces. Below are some key highlights from the report. 1/ 🧵Thread:
2/ The frontline dynamics for Ukraine remain challenging, with setbacks in Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Kupyansk, and Toretsk. While leadership is working to address organizational and recruitment issues, it will take time for these changes to be implemented and impact the battlefield.
3/ Russian forces are facing high losses, with tens of thousands of AWOL cases and a significant depletion of armored vehicles, which are being replaced by civilian transport. Nevertheless, they continue advancing in areas where Ukrainian defenses are stretched with few people
In collaboration with @casusbellii, our team Frontelligence Insight investigated a large Russian convoy: over 100 vehicles, including tanks, trucks, IFVs, artillery, and other equipment, that rolled into Bamako, Mali. We've assessed its composition and origins. 🧵Thread:
2/ On January 17, 2025, local media Cap Mali+, streamed a more than 30-minute video of a column of vehicles passing through unnamed Malian streets. The convoy included over 100 vehicles, with roughly half consisting of trucks and the other half made up of combat vehicles
3/ The location of the footage was geolocated to the southwestern outskirts of Bamako, near coordinates 12.545009, -8.120543. The convoy was moving toward the center of the Malian capital.
You may not have heard of tantalum, but there’s a good chance it’s in the phone or computer you're using to read this. It’s also a key part in Russia’s military electronics, and its shortage, driven by sanctions, is causing disruptions. Frontelligence Insight's latest assessment:
2/ Russia relies on tantalum to produce tantalum powders for capacitors used in control, navigation, and signal processing systems. While Russia has tantalum deposits, they are limited, and it lacks advanced processing facilities to process a raw tantalum
3/ Historically, tantalum processing has been conducted at the Ulba Metallurgical Plant in Kazakhstan, a facility built during the Soviet era. When sanctions were implemented, Kazakhstan joined them, cutting off Russia’s primary supply of processed tantalum.
1/ Why is Ukraine losing ground? There are many explanations, ranging from a lack of aid to a lack of political will to win. The reality, however, is far more complex. This thread offers a brief excerpt from my recent analysis, with the full link provided at the end.
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2/ Many struggles that the Ukrainian military faces stem from before 2022 and have scaled significantly by 2025. A mobilized force, where teachers, farmers, and IT workers replaced the professional core, turned what began as 'growing pains' into systemic flaws
3/ A damning report on Ukraine’s 155th Anne of Kyiv Brigade grotesquely exposed systematic issues. Despite training in France and sufficient funding and equipment, the unit faced high AWOL rates and fragmentation across frontline units. The issues that lead to it are systematic