Thread by @bravosresearch

US gov. debt market collapse has started

This has MASSIVE implications for the economy

A thread 🧵

2/ US government bonds have broken below a 40-year uptrend

After experiencing one of the most aggressive bear market since the 1980s

3/ Treasury bonds, typically 40% of an investor's portfolio, have led to significant losses because of their sharp decline

4/ Since March 2020, gold has outperformed Treasury bonds by +100% amid surging government spending

Government expenditures have risen from $3.4 trillion to almost $4 trillion in just 2 years

5/ Constantly rising government spending, financed by issuing more Treasury bonds, is a BIG problem

This has caused bond prices to drop significantly

6/ Treasury bond issuance in 2024 is expected to hit $1.9 trillion

This level is higher than even the peak of the 2008 Financial Crisis levels

7/ Although we expect a bounce in bonds, our long-term outlook on it is bearish

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8/ A key factors that’s driving this long-term breakdown in Treasury bonds is the decline in labor force participation rate

This metric has shown a strong negative correlation to US government debt since 1999

9/ The decreasing labor force participation + increasing government debt indicate economic strain

This is because of more people retiring and fewer people working

The combination has required the government to increase its spending

10/ With the aging US population and more people retiring

Labor force participation is likely to decline further

This would increase government debt even more, unless spending changes

11/ That’s why Gold has seen a lot of bullishness

Surging +35% since Oct 2023

Our members have already secured a 22% gain on $GDX when we booked partial profits on 23rd May

And continue to hold the rest for more upside

12/ You can check all our 2024 closed trades for FREE on our landing page

It's been a solid year for our members with an average win of 16.92% and average loss of just 3.93%

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14/ Thanks for reading!

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