Every major US recession since 1980 was preceded by this signal

And it has just triggered once again

Buckle up.

A thread 🧵 2/ This line you see here has surged right before every US recession since the 1980s

It’s from the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey, showing how consumers feel about the future of the job market

US stock market has completed a V-shaped recovery

This is what typically happens next…

A thread 🧵 2/ The S&P 500 has hit new all time highs following a V-shaped recovery

That rally’s been powered by a wave of FOMO buying

Plus a short squeeze

As investors hedging for downside had to cover, forcing them to buy the index

V-shaped rally followed by euphoria then a correction

This has been a recurring pattern since the 1990s

And it’s happening again today

A thread 🧵 2/ There’s some good news and some bad news

The good news is that US stocks just hit new all-time highs

And with that surge, we locked in a few solid wins on our website

The conflict in the Middle East has gotten a lot of investors bearish now

But these 3 metrics are still pointing to a constructive market environment

A thread 🧵 2/ A conflict has just broken out in the Middle East and it’s escalating rapidly

Civilians are being killed on both sides and there’s a real risk the US gets pulled in

Which could disrupt global oil supply and shake up the entire global economy and stock markets

The yield curve has anticipated the biggest recessions

This includes 2008, 2001, and even 1929

But is it about to fail this time around?

A thread 🧵 2/ Over the past 12 months, the US yield curve has steepened

Meaning it’s moved out of an inversion (below 0%)

As we’ve covered many times, this is typically one of the most reliable recessionary signals

US government debt market COLLAPSE has begun

This has MASSIVE implications for the economy

A thread 🧵 2/ US government bonds have broken below a +40-year uptrend

After experiencing one of the most painful bear market since the 1980s

Moody’s just downgraded the US government’s credit rating

Just as interest payments on debt hit 4.6 % of GDP

This is THE highest level among developed economies

Buckle up.

A thread 🧵 2/ Moody’s just downgraded the US government’s credit rating from AAA to AA1

The timing of this couldn’t be worse

The 30-year bond yield has already been pushing toward levels we haven’t seen in 18 years

WARNING: Housing defaults have skyrocketed

This is unlike anything we’ve seen in a decade

A thread 🧵 2/ The Fed had been on an unprecedented hiking cycle

Taking rates from near 0% to 5.5% in just 1.5 years

Ensuring tight monetary policy in the process

Michael Burry just shorted this stock with 49% of his portfolio

This is a BIG move, buckle up.

A thread 🧵 2/ Michael Burry just made his biggest move of Q1 2025:

Shorting 900,000 shares of Nvidia through put options

That’s almost 50% of his entire portfolio betting against one of the largest US company

Bitcoin was born in 2009 following the Financial Crisis

Today, with the US dollar collapsing, there’s a MAJOR opportunity on it

A thread 🧵 2/ The US dollar index has now declined over 10% in 2025

And is likely to continue declining due to Trump’s new policies

A structural dollar weakness can have massive implications for the global economy

Credit card defaults have hit RECORD levels

This is HIGHER than even the 2008 Financial Crisis

A thread 🧵 2/ From 1940s to 1970s, Americans used to save around 10% of their annual income

But today, savings relative to income is almost near 0%

Money market funds have shot up by $2 trillion in just the last 2 years

Back in 1981, it took 20 years for the same growth

Cash rushing to the sidelines should NOT be ignored

A thread 🧵 2/ The amount of cash sitting on the sidelines has now reached $7.2 trillion

That’s the total parked in money market funds

Where institutional investors typically store idle capital

Money market funds have just hit a RECORD $7.2 trillion

Last 3 sharp rises preceded MAJOR economic downturns

Is this time different?

A thread 🧵 2/ The amount of cash sitting on the sidelines has now reached $7.2 trillion

That’s the total parked in money market funds

Where institutional investors typically store idle capital

The US Treasury market collapse has begun

This has MAJOR implications for the economy

A thread 🧵 2/ $16 billion - That’s how much the US government pulled in from tariffs just in April

It’s the largest amount of money ever collected from US customs in a single month

Consumer confidence is WORSE than the 2008 Financial Crisis levels

But the stock market is still near record highs

Which one is lying?

A thread 🧵 2/ The S&P 500 just broke above its 200-day moving average - one of the market’s most important resistance levels

Investors are celebrating a temporary trade deal between the US and China, hoping it leads to a broader agreement

But consumer sentiment is telling a different story

History is REPEATING

Buckle up.

A thread 🧵 2/ The S&P 500 has seen a sharp rebound since the April lows

Today, a record 60% of US households have stock market exposure

The big question now is: can this rally really last?

History is REPEATING.

A thread 🧵 2/ The US stock market has been melting up

Gaining over 20% in just the last 6 weeks

That officially makes this the strongest rally since 2020

This will catch a lot of investors off-guard

A thread 🧵 2/ The stock market has seen an aggressive bounce off the April lows

This is happening after a crash as violent as during the pandemic and the Financial Crisis

It’s happening AGAIN

Buckle up.

A thread 🧵 2/ A $54 trillion asset class has been bouncing back now

This is happening after a crash as violent as during the pandemic and the Financial Crisis

Today, a record 60% of US households have stock market exposure

The big question now is: can this rally really last?

BIG divergence between US dollar and bond yields

Either rates must rise further to stabilize the dollar

Or the dollar is at real risk of a deeper collapse

A thread 🧵 2/ The US dollar index (DXY) has faced heavy selling pressure since Trump’s new tariff announcement

Something has happened that is suggesting that this decline in the US dollar could be a lot more dangerous than it looks

In the 1900s, the British Pound lost its status as a global reserve currency due to 2 key reasons

Today, the US Dollar is facing a similar threat

A thread 🧵 2/ Since the dawn of civilization, every fiat currency has eventually collapsed into irrelevance

And when that collapse comes, those holding the currency usually see their wealth wiped out

History is clear about how this ends