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Jul 4 • 25 tweets • 7 min read
Every major US recession since 1980 was preceded by this signal
And it has just triggered once again
Buckle up.
A thread 🧵 2/ This line you see here has surged right before every US recession since the 1980s
It’s from the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey, showing how consumers feel about the future of the job market
Jul 3 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
US stock market has completed a V-shaped recovery
This is what typically happens next…
A thread 🧵 2/ The S&P 500 has hit new all time highs following a V-shaped recovery
That rally’s been powered by a wave of FOMO buying
Plus a short squeeze
As investors hedging for downside had to cover, forcing them to buy the index
Jul 2 • 21 tweets • 7 min read
V-shaped rally followed by euphoria then a correction
This has been a recurring pattern since the 1990s
And it’s happening again today
A thread 🧵 2/ There’s some good news and some bad news
The good news is that US stocks just hit new all-time highs
And with that surge, we locked in a few solid wins on our website
Jun 20 • 30 tweets • 10 min read
The conflict in the Middle East has gotten a lot of investors bearish now
But these 3 metrics are still pointing to a constructive market environment
A thread 🧵 2/ A conflict has just broken out in the Middle East and it’s escalating rapidly
Civilians are being killed on both sides and there’s a real risk the US gets pulled in
Which could disrupt global oil supply and shake up the entire global economy and stock markets
Jun 16 • 28 tweets • 10 min read
The yield curve has anticipated the biggest recessions
This includes 2008, 2001, and even 1929
But is it about to fail this time around?
A thread 🧵 2/ Over the past 12 months, the US yield curve has steepened
Meaning it’s moved out of an inversion (below 0%)
As we’ve covered many times, this is typically one of the most reliable recessionary signals
Jun 9 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
US government debt market COLLAPSE has begun
This has MASSIVE implications for the economy
A thread 🧵 2/ US government bonds have broken below a +40-year uptrend
After experiencing one of the most painful bear market since the 1980s
Jun 9 • 28 tweets • 10 min read
Moody’s just downgraded the US government’s credit rating
Just as interest payments on debt hit 4.6 % of GDP
This is THE highest level among developed economies
Buckle up.
A thread 🧵 2/ Moody’s just downgraded the US government’s credit rating from AAA to AA1
The timing of this couldn’t be worse
The 30-year bond yield has already been pushing toward levels we haven’t seen in 18 years
Jun 6 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
WARNING: Housing defaults have skyrocketed
This is unlike anything we’ve seen in a decade
A thread 🧵 2/ The Fed had been on an unprecedented hiking cycle
Taking rates from near 0% to 5.5% in just 1.5 years
Ensuring tight monetary policy in the process
Jun 6 • 23 tweets • 8 min read
Michael Burry just shorted this stock with 49% of his portfolio
This is a BIG move, buckle up.
A thread 🧵 2/ Michael Burry just made his biggest move of Q1 2025:
Shorting 900,000 shares of Nvidia through put options
That’s almost 50% of his entire portfolio betting against one of the largest US company
Jun 5 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
Bitcoin was born in 2009 following the Financial Crisis
Today, with the US dollar collapsing, there’s a MAJOR opportunity on it
A thread 🧵 2/ The US dollar index has now declined over 10% in 2025
And is likely to continue declining due to Trump’s new policies
A structural dollar weakness can have massive implications for the global economy
Jun 3 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
Credit card defaults have hit RECORD levels
This is HIGHER than even the 2008 Financial Crisis
A thread 🧵 2/ From 1940s to 1970s, Americans used to save around 10% of their annual income
But today, savings relative to income is almost near 0%
Jun 3 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
Money market funds have shot up by $2 trillion in just the last 2 years
Back in 1981, it took 20 years for the same growth
Cash rushing to the sidelines should NOT be ignored
A thread 🧵 2/ The amount of cash sitting on the sidelines has now reached $7.2 trillion
That’s the total parked in money market funds
Where institutional investors typically store idle capital
Jun 2 • 24 tweets • 8 min read
Money market funds have just hit a RECORD $7.2 trillion
Last 3 sharp rises preceded MAJOR economic downturns
Is this time different?
A thread 🧵 2/ The amount of cash sitting on the sidelines has now reached $7.2 trillion
That’s the total parked in money market funds
Where institutional investors typically store idle capital
May 29 • 22 tweets • 8 min read
The US Treasury market collapse has begun
This has MAJOR implications for the economy
A thread 🧵 2/ $16 billion - That’s how much the US government pulled in from tariffs just in April
It’s the largest amount of money ever collected from US customs in a single month
May 28 • 24 tweets • 8 min read
Consumer confidence is WORSE than the 2008 Financial Crisis levels
But the stock market is still near record highs
Which one is lying?
A thread 🧵 2/ The S&P 500 just broke above its 200-day moving average - one of the market’s most important resistance levels
Investors are celebrating a temporary trade deal between the US and China, hoping it leads to a broader agreement
But consumer sentiment is telling a different story
May 27 • 26 tweets • 9 min read
History is REPEATING
Buckle up.
A thread 🧵 2/ The S&P 500 has seen a sharp rebound since the April lows
Today, a record 60% of US households have stock market exposure
The big question now is: can this rally really last?
May 20 • 25 tweets • 8 min read
History is REPEATING.
A thread 🧵 2/ The US stock market has been melting up
Gaining over 20% in just the last 6 weeks
That officially makes this the strongest rally since 2020
May 19 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
This will catch a lot of investors off-guard
A thread 🧵 2/ The stock market has seen an aggressive bounce off the April lows
This is happening after a crash as violent as during the pandemic and the Financial Crisis
May 16 • 26 tweets • 9 min read
It’s happening AGAIN
Buckle up.
A thread 🧵 2/ A $54 trillion asset class has been bouncing back now
This is happening after a crash as violent as during the pandemic and the Financial Crisis
Today, a record 60% of US households have stock market exposure
The big question now is: can this rally really last?
May 14 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
BIG divergence between US dollar and bond yields
Either rates must rise further to stabilize the dollar
Or the dollar is at real risk of a deeper collapse
A thread 🧵 2/ The US dollar index (DXY) has faced heavy selling pressure since Trump’s new tariff announcement
Something has happened that is suggesting that this decline in the US dollar could be a lot more dangerous than it looks
May 13 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
In the 1900s, the British Pound lost its status as a global reserve currency due to 2 key reasons
Today, the US Dollar is facing a similar threat
A thread 🧵 2/ Since the dawn of civilization, every fiat currency has eventually collapsed into irrelevance
And when that collapse comes, those holding the currency usually see their wealth wiped out