This time is NOT different.

A thread 🧵 2/ The National Bureau of Economic Research has 3 specific conditions to define an asset bubble:

- The asset needs to rise by >100% over a 2-year period.

- It needs to outperform the broader market by at least 100% over that same period.

- It needs to deliver a 5-year return of >50%.

Japan’s $10 TRILLION debt meltdown is about to hit the US

Buckle up.

A thread 🧵 2/ For years, Japan was seen as the epicenter of global sovereign debt risk, but this has now changed.

In just the past few weeks, we’ve seen a major shift, with currency and debt risk moving from Japan to the US.

The US stock market is near all-time highs in dollar terms

But is down 45% when measured in gold terms

What does this mean for the economy and financial markets?

A thread 🧵 2/ The shifts unfolding today in the global monetary system, the geopolitical order, and global trade have major implications for the markets.

Yet most people are completely misreading what is truly happening in the financial markets.

Donald Trump wants the US economy to keep outperforming

But he also wants a weaker dollar to support re-industrialization

This would require breaking a major relationship that’s existed since the 1960s

A thread 🧵 2/ The US government has a problem.

For decades, interests of the government and the Federal Reserve were aligned.

But these interests are now diverging and this could lead to the single greatest shift in US financial history.

The US bond market is beginning to break

Long-term yields are still rising

While short-term yields are falling

History shows this is a MAJOR warning signal

A thread 🧵 2/ 1 of the most fundamental relationships in financial markets is breaking right now.

In the last 1-year, the 30-year Treasury yield has been rising while the 3-month Treasury yield has been falling.

This divergence signals that the monetary policy is breaking.

Truck sales are collapsing, but stocks are hitting record highs

The last 3 times this happened were in 2000, 2008, & 2020

All of them saw an economic recession and a major market crash

Is this time different?

A thread 🧵 2/ This chart shows the aggregate economy index.

When we mark the exact peaks and troughs, they line up precisely with the official start and end dates of recessions.

Japanese bond yields have just hit 20-year highs

This could trigger a Global Debt Crisis…

A thread 🧵 2/ The yield on Japan’s 30-year bond is starting to close in on the yield of the US 30-year bond.

This narrowing gap could be 1 of the most important global macro developments right now.

Many believe the moment these 2 lines cross could be the trigger that sets off the global debt bubble.

Every bull market in the past 70 years has been ended by 1 key Macro factor

This should NOT be overlooked

A thread 🧵 2/ Something unusual is happening in the stock market right now.

The total daily volume of options traded on the US stock market just hit $3.5 trillion.

That is roughly equal to the entire value of the Russell 2000, meaning all US small-cap companies combined.

Cash on the sidelines has just hit 25% of US GDP

History shows this does NOT end well…

A thread 🧵 2/ This chart shows us the share of total US GDP comprised of cash.

Right now, 25% of the economy, or roughly $7.5 trillion, is invested in money market funds.

This is the money sitting on the sidelines.

That’s the highest level since April 2020, before that January 2009 and October 2001.

The yield curve has now been steepening from an inversion

This has historically been a very reliable recessionary signal

It’s pointing to a MAJOR economic turning point in just 3 months

A thread 🧵 2/ The yield curve has officially begun a countdown that will bring the economy to a major turning point in 3-months.

You see, exactly 1 year ago the yield curve did what we call a steepening.

It came out of one of the longest inversions on record, crossing back above the 0-line

Michael Burry just revealed 2 MASSIVE short positions tied directly to the AI Bubble

The last time we saw something similar was right before the 2008 Financial Crisis

This won’t end well…

A thread 🧵 2/  This chart compares the euphoria of the 2025 AI boom with the Bitcoin frenzy of 2017 and the housing bubble of 2005 using Google search trends

What stands out are the dates:

August 2005 = housing market downturn

December 2017 = Bitcoin beginning an 80% drawdown

Bitcoin surged 5,000% in 2016, 1,000% in 2020

And crashed 70% in both 2018 and 2022

This 1 Macro signal flashed before all of these moves

A thread 🧵 2/ It’s a force every investor knows exists, but very few actually know how to use

It’s called global liquidity

This is actually happening on Bitcoin

Buckle up.

A thread 🧵 2/ What if I told you there’s 1 macro force that’s appeared before every major move Bitcoin has made over the last decade?

It showed up before Bitcoin’s 5,000% rally in 2016–2017

Before the 1,000% surge in 2020–2021

And right before the 70% crashes in 2018 and 2022

US stock market has rallied +25% in just 60 trading days

This has only happened 8 times since the 1970s

Here’s what typically happens next

A thread 🧵 2/ We just sold most of our US stock market exposure on our website

The S&P 500 is at all-time highs after a spectacular melt-up

We've been holding multiple tech and industrial trades over the last few months

But we've now sent out sell alerts to all of our clients

History is REPEATING

Buckle up.

A thread 🧵 2/ June 2009, June 2020, and June 2025 have each kicked off V-shaped recoveries for stocks

In all 3 cases, the S&P 500 surged more than 20% in just 55 trading days

Something that hasn’t occurred at any other point in the last 15 years

Every major US recession since 1980 was preceded by this signal

And it has just triggered once again

Buckle up.

A thread 🧵 2/ This line you see here has surged right before every US recession since the 1980s

It’s from the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey, showing how consumers feel about the future of the job market

US stock market has completed a V-shaped recovery

This is what typically happens next…

A thread 🧵 2/ The S&P 500 has hit new all time highs following a V-shaped recovery

That rally’s been powered by a wave of FOMO buying

Plus a short squeeze

As investors hedging for downside had to cover, forcing them to buy the index

V-shaped rally followed by euphoria then a correction

This has been a recurring pattern since the 1990s

And it’s happening again today

A thread 🧵 2/ There’s some good news and some bad news

The good news is that US stocks just hit new all-time highs

And with that surge, we locked in a few solid wins on our website

The conflict in the Middle East has gotten a lot of investors bearish now

But these 3 metrics are still pointing to a constructive market environment

A thread 🧵 2/ A conflict has just broken out in the Middle East and it’s escalating rapidly

Civilians are being killed on both sides and there’s a real risk the US gets pulled in

Which could disrupt global oil supply and shake up the entire global economy and stock markets

The yield curve has anticipated the biggest recessions

This includes 2008, 2001, and even 1929

But is it about to fail this time around?

A thread 🧵 2/ Over the past 12 months, the US yield curve has steepened

Meaning it’s moved out of an inversion (below 0%)

As we’ve covered many times, this is typically one of the most reliable recessionary signals

US government debt market COLLAPSE has begun

This has MASSIVE implications for the economy

A thread 🧵 2/ US government bonds have broken below a +40-year uptrend

After experiencing one of the most painful bear market since the 1980s