NEWS. ENERGY PRICE CAP TO RISE 10% on 1 OCT. (pls share). Here's my instant briefing incl who it'll hit hardest, why govt needs change winter fuel payments, standing charges & WHAT TO DO NOW. First, here's the average Direct Debit Cap (it varies by region)
ELEC
- Standing charge 60.99p daily (from 60.12p) UP 1.4%
- Unit charge: 24.5p per KwH (from 22.36p) UP 9.6%
GAS
- Standing charge: 31.66p daily (from 31.41p) UP 0.8%
- Unit charge: 6.24p per KwH (from 5.48p) UP 14%
Prices nearly double pre-crisis: This rise means this winter many will still be paying nearly double what they were pre-crisis. From 1 October, the vast majority of homes in England, Scotland & Wales will see costs jump 10% – so for every £100 you pay today, you’ll typically pay £110.
To be more accurate, as most of the rise is on the unit rate not standing charge, higher users especially those with gas, will overall see their costs rise by more than 10% rise, lower users less.
Govt must rethink Winter Fuel Payments or almost ALL pensioners will need to find £100s more than last winter. While energy will cost less than during last winter’s crisis time, the reduction in rates only equates to a drop of roughly £100 over the six winter months for a household with typical usage. Yet specific pensioner energy support has dropped by far more...
Last year pensioner homes got up to £300 extra per household cost of living support - that’s gone, and its loss alone is far bigger than the saving made by slightly lower rates.
Piling on top of that is the governments new decision to means-test Winter Fuel Payments, that will leave all except usually those who claim Pension Credit missing out on a further £200 - £300.
While there's a strong argument for ending the universality of Winter Fuel payments, eligibility is being squeezed to too narrow a group. Those just above the thresholds will be hardest hit. I'm due to meet the Chancellor in a couple of weeks, and will then be urging her to look at methods to widen eligibility – such as to homes in council tax bands A to D – an imperfect but workable proxy for lower household incomes.
People can and should save by switching: The cheapest year-long fixes on the market right now are about 7% LESS than the new October price cap, but they mightn’t be around long, That looks a good deal, as its currently predicted once rates go up they won’t come down. Don’t just jump on any fix though, if you’re going to lock-in you want to grab the cheapest for your use and location, so use a whole-of-market comparison, like MSE’s Cheap Energy Club, and find out who will let you fix for less.
Alternatively deals like E.on Next’s Pledge, or EDF Ensure are effectively discounted trackers, where they move with the price cap, but the unit rates or standing charges are guaranteed to be lower. And for more sophisticated energy users the Octopus Agile and Tracker tariffs where prices move rapidly can be far cheaper.
Consultation to reduce Standing Charges launched: The Standing Charge is a daily poll tax that means everyone with gas & electricity pays a minimum £338 a year even if they don’t use it. This moral hazard penalises lower users, often many who are vulnerable, and means they will face a proportionately larger rise.
I've long called for change, so welcome today's long promised consultation on reducing standing charges today - though I'm slightly disappointed even the maximum proposed reduction is only £100/yr - but I'll hold judgement until I've read the consultation in full.
Just a note on fixing, the confusion will be that actually grab a cheap fix now and you'll pay 2%ish more than current price cap - but crucially far less than the new Oct price cap (and where it's predicted to stay). Some saying "shouldn't I wait until Oct then?" but we don't know whether you'll be able to fix at these rates then. This is all explained via the MSE cheap energy club comparison where we included predicted future price cap in the comparison.
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On Mon the new Ofgem Apr-Jul Energy Price Cap's announced. Yet in practice it's likely to be not hugely impactful as currently
- It's GOVT THAT SETS ENERGY PRICES
- And GOVT plans to INCREASE EM 20% in Apr (I'm campaigning for it not to)
Let me explain..
(2/7) The energy price cap (Cap) is set by Ofgem based on wholesale rates - those energy retailers pay.
Until Oct 2022 solely it dictated the max standing charge & unit rates firms could levy. And as in recent times all firms charge near-enough the max, it set the price we paid.
(3/7) Then in Oct, the Govt introduced the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG), set to last til April 24, which means if the Cap is very high (as it is) the govt reduces what we pay, by subsidising it.
Yet the rule is, if the Cap drops below the EPG, we will then pay the lower amount.
Thanks to @Jeremy_Hunt for today's mortgage summit with lenders. A decent meet on putting best practice flexibility & forbearance measures in place for spring. They'll put a few announcements out today but I hope there will be more to come once things are worked through...
Lenders and the FCA seemed open to suggestions.
Thanks from me to all the mortgage brokers, @CitizensAdvice, @WhichUK who fed in suggestions and research to my team in our pre planning.
My three tenets I suggested for temp relief measures were
1. Communication (ensure people know pros and cons of all options) 2. Reversibility, if and when things improve people can return to prior setting 3. Limited credit score impact for temporary help
Please share (1/5)
Tomorrow the Jan - April energy price cap is announced. I've had fellow journos asking me about the huge bill increases predicted. So to stave off any misreporting, let me be plain
THE JAN ENERGY PRICE CAP IS ALMOST TOTALLY MEANINGLESS FOR CONSUMERS.
Now to explain in seven points...
1) Since Oct household bills've been dictated by the Energy Price Guarantee, the Price Cap which mattered before is now mostly irrelevant
2) The Guarantee is set by the govt eg for a home on typical use its £2,500 now, rising to £3,000 Apr 23
3) The Price Cap is based on wholesale rates (with a time lag) and dictates what energy firms can charge.
4) When the Cap is higher than the Guarantee (as it is now) the state pays the difference, household bills are still at the guarantee rate.
Wow I'm nearing 2m followers. So to say THANK YOU & promote small charities, I'll again donate
-£500 to charity picked by my 2000000th follower
-£500 to charity of randomly picked existing follower who replies
So pls reply with a charity, noting if ur new or already follow (1/2)
(2/2) Mini t&cs
-Charity must have a UK charity number
-Its hard to exactly spot follower 2m. I'll do m'best but my pick (even if inaccurate) is final.
-If 2millionth doesn't name charity, I'll pick nearest who does.
-'Randomly picked' means Ill scroll thru eyes closed & point
Amazing to see so many great charities mentioned. And also to see those charities responding to people - hope its a positive way to connect the two when the third sector is really struggling at the moment.
NEWS: The projected new energy price cap, that will start in April when the price guarantee ends, will be:
UP 73% taking a bill for typical use (use more pay more use less pay less) from £2,500/yr to £4,350
The cap will then be DOWN 15% in July to £3,700/yr typical use.
cont/d
Then it is predicted to stabilise around that level.
However these are very early day predictions (thanks to @CornwallInsight for getting them to us so quickly), we are not even in the April cap assessment period (17/11 to 17/2) yet, so could change a lot
cont/d
If these are in the right ballpark, the promised 'targeted help' will need to be targeted up into middle incomes for people to get through this. Especially if it stays at those levels for the next winter.
Its arguable the entire economic problems Liz Truss has, stems back to her energy bill policy. Let me explain, in 5 points
1. During the zombie govt, due to leadership contest, even though it was blindingly obvious energy intervention was needed, no plans were made or promised
2. Yet campaign pledges on tax cuts were made at that point, possibly without factoring in the cost of the coming unavoidable energy intervention.
3. Liz Truss at the time also strongly poo-pooed handouts to differentiate from Rishi Sunak scheme
4. When they hit govt and it became blindingly obvious that intervention was needed. They needed to do it at breakneck speed, with urgent meets with the energy firms.
The only route without it being called 'a handout' was a universal reduction - the most expensive intervention