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Aug 23, 2024 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Geospatial analysis from Frontelligence Insight reveals that Russian forces continue to build a defensive line in the Kursk region, located south and southwest of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant in Kurchatov

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2/ The initial stages of constructing a defensive line near the settlement of Dolgii, roughly 10 kilometers south of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, were visible in satellite imagery on August 14. By August 18, the trenches were in the process of being reinforced.
3/ After completing the initial trench digging within the first few days, Russian forces secured the necessary equipment and materials to reinforce the trenches with logs and wood. Satellite imagery shows multiple excavators in the area. Image
4/ Based on a few indicators that our teams prefer not to disclose publicly, there are clues that Russian forces are also creating defenses within tree lines. Due to the foliage, these defenses are not easily visible on satellite imagery, thus defenses might be more extensive Image
5/ While fortifications can be a serious obstacle, their effectiveness depends on whether experienced veterans or undertrained conscripts man them. We also don't know to what extent Russian forces plan to mine their own region Image
6/ Overall, our team expects these fortifications to expand, as Russian forces have gathered resources, taking advantage of the slowdown of Ukrainian troops. It remains to be seen if they have enough time to complete them and build an organized defense to stop the Ukrainians.
7/
Consider supporting the Liberty Ukraine Foundation, which raises funds for Ukrainian troops and provides equipment, such as excavators. Unfortunately, Russia still has a serious advantage in assembling resources for defensive construction

8/ Special thanks to @bradyafr for mapping the defenses

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More from @Tatarigami_UA

Aug 19
If we focus on the bigger picture today, the overall situation is not that bad. We went from Russia’s 2022 demands: military downsizing, government changes, the secession of multiple regions, and other demands: to a much shorter list of demands today:
2/ Notably, Ukraine has also stepped back from its maximalist demands for a de facto return to its 1991 borders and the full withdrawal of Russian forces. Clearly, its stance against direct negotiations has been abandoned as well.
3/ Whether this will work or not is beyond the scope of this message, but interestingly, if you read some of the more-or-less “semi-independent” Russian “Z” channels, not just those that repeat state propaganda, you can see that this realization is starting to take hold
Read 5 tweets
Aug 18
So far, Russia has failed to achieve any of its stated strategic goals in this war:

Demilitarization – failed.

Regime change in Kyiv – failed.

Full control over Donbas – failed.

Preventing NATO enlargement – failed.

🧵Short thread:
2/ Demilitarization of Ukraine. The Ukrainian military is now larger, better armed, and far more experienced than before the war. It is more technologically advanced and capable than ever before.
3/ Russia failed to remove Zelenskyy or his government. Kyiv remains fully under Ukrainian control. The chances of a pro-Russian party winning the next election are slim to none
Read 7 tweets
Aug 17
Brief update on Dobropillia situation.🧵Thread:

1/ As I noted from the outset, based on the limited information then available, there was no “operational breakthrough”. The penetration was tactical, involving roughly a battalion-sized force. Still, it is too soon for celebration Map Credit: Deep State Live
2/ Initially, the situation was especially risky, as Russian units managed to break east of Dobropillia. I would not describe this as a DRG (sabotage group) operation or a simple raid, since neither term accurately reflects the size of the force or its mission in the context
3/ It is positive that Ukrainian forces contained the threat and prevented it from developing into an operational breakthrough. However, the scale of reinforcements required was significant. According to Deep State, the following units were involved in the reinforcement effort:
Read 8 tweets
Aug 16
Missing Targeting Pods, Inflated Bills: An Exclusive Investigation into the Su-57 Procurement Problems by Frontelligence Insight. 🧵Thread:

1/ Newly obtained classified documents, show that Russia purchased its 5-generation Su-57 fighters for more than 3 billion rubles each;Image
2/ Data provided by Analytical Company "Dallas" (@dallasparkua) shows that in 2021 & 2022, Su-57 fighter jets were delivered without targeting pods, leaving them short of their advertised capabilities. At the time, the cost of a single Su-57 was roughly $42.1 million in USD terms Image
3/ The documents show that in 2021, a year before the war, the Russian Defense Ministry formally accepted Su-57 aircraft without the 101KS-N, an electro-optical targeting subsystem. This was allowed under Additional Agreement No. 8. Image
Read 14 tweets
Aug 15
8th Army MIA Cases, 2024–2025:

Debates over losses are always heated, but hard data cuts through the noise. Frontelligence Insight analyzed Russian documents released by the I Want to Live project, giving insight on soldiers of the 8th Army who went missing in action. 🧵Thread:
2/ From January 2024 to June 2025, 6,921 soldiers and officers of the 8th Army were reported missing in action. Part of the Southern Military District, the 8th Army has primarily operated in Donetsk Oblast, with elements recently deployed at Pokrovsk to reinforce the 58th Army.
3/ Looking at the timeline, losses in 2025 have significantly peaked compared with 2024. The number of monthly MIA cases more than doubled and remained consistent throughout 2025, reflecting the period of active offensive operations, particularly in Donetsk. Image
Read 12 tweets
Aug 14
Commented to the FT on pressure to cede territories:

“The constitution limits his power: he has no legal right to alter Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Even more constraining is pressure from society and, crucially, the military, which opposes giving up unoccupied territory"Image
“President Zelenskyy is caught between a rock and a hard place,” the article concludes with my comment.

Given the opportunity, I also want to add that if peace is to be negotiated, we cannot start with non-starter demands, which our President won't be able to accept
Diplomacy is the art of compromise and seeking constructive solutions. Ukraine has been constructive, avoiding maximalist demands, but if Moscow imposes such demands, the Trump administration should recognize that Ukraine is not the party which obstructs his vision and peace
Read 4 tweets

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