As a psychologist, I recommend reflecting each day on something that made you proud, no matter how simple. Then, ground it in the context of the pandemic.
For example:
"Today, I did _________, during the 9th wave of a pandemic that's infecting >1mil Americans/day."
The raging pandemic makes everything harder, especially amid rampant denialism. Perhaps you kept your kids safe, cleaned the house, were patient with someone, or went out of your way to help someone.
Acknowledging the small accomplishments can help maintain a sense of drive, build character, and avoid falling into denialism.
I think many people were better at this habit during the 1st year of the pandemic, when society was more aware and supportive. It remains important for persisting.
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We told you that 109,000-175,000 Americans would died of COVID (excess deaths) in 2025.
Today, the CDC estimates 101,000 deaths/year (flat from Oct 2022 to Sep 2024), and likely higher when considering more nebulous non-acute excess deaths (heart attack 6 months later). 1/5
The CDC estimates are actually higher than I would have guessed, given their methodology, which models estimates based on easily countable factors in healthcare and expert input on multiplier values. It lends credence to the PMC upper bound of excess deaths of 175,000/yr.
2/5
What's troubling is the CDC has annual mortality flat. My expectation based on mortality displacement and Swiss Re data is that it should be declining. If is stays flat, we're running on something like breast+prostate cancer or lung cancer deaths per year in perpetuity.
3/5
Based on today's CDC data, we estimate 1 in 51 Americans are actively infectious with COVlD. That's nearly 1 million new daily infections.
Be wise. Vax up, mask up. #oneofthetwo
🧵2/10
Many states are surging presently. True levels are higher than shown in most places due to state-level reporting lags.
🧵3/10
Although many states are surging, do not feel false security in "low" level states. For example, NY has terrible reporting quality with the CDC currently.
In the latest CDC data, 15 states have moderate to very high transmission.
🔹1 in 63 estimated actively infectious nationally, rising fastest in the Midwest & Northeast
🔹Very High: Indiana
🔹High: Nebraska, Vermont, Connecticut
🧵1/9
PMC estimates 1 in 26 people in Indiana are infectious and 1 in 39 in Connecticut.
MI, MS, and AR may have higher levels than shown due to poor reporting.
States AL to MS shown.
🧵2/9
PMC estimates 1 in 39 are infectious in both Nebraska and Vermont (coincidence, not typo).
Very few NY sites are reporting to the CDC, so use the NYS website there instead.
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Nov 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵1/10
With CDC data operational again, the transmission map is back. The data are always a week old, so transmission is likely worse than depicted.
We estimate 1 in 116 people actively infectious and 422,000 new daily infections.
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Nov 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵2/10
State level estimates are back. Note, the CDC changed their data processing approach in August, which tends to downplay transmission.
Does 1 in 45 in Indiana seem "moderate"?
Levels in MI may be mod/high (poor reporting).
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Nov 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵3/10
State-level estimates (continued).
Current levels may be much higher than noted here. Note that CDC data are always at least a week old. The 2nd half of November is a time period historically of accelerating transmission.
PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
1/6🧵
🔹301,000 new daily infections based on wastewater-derived models
🔹1 in 162 people (0.6%) actively infectious
🔹Levels the past 2 months corrected upward by Biobot
🔹"Lull point" estimated between Nov 5-21. Rising soon.
PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
2/6🧵
The central estimate of the forecast suggests we will surpass 500,000 new daily infections on Nov 22.
There's a 25% chance of a prolonged lull like last year. More likely, we are in wave territory by the end of the month.
PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
3/6🧵
We are presently in a lull between the 11th and 12th wave. Now is the time to get boosted and stock up on N95 masks, tests, and air purifier filters.