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Aug 24, 2024 8 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Elevating the Status of Motherhood Solves Low Birthrates: The Extraordinary Case of Mongolia
For 68 years, Mongolian leaders have given the Order of Maternal Glory to mothers. This raised the status of motherhood and helped forge a remarkably pronatal culture.
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Mongolia's pro-motherhood culture stands out on a fertility map. Fertility in Mongolia has consistently been 2-3 times(!) higher than neighboring areas in recent years and it has been increasing over the past 20 years, even as its neighbors have seen birthrates plunge! 2/8
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Mongolia's incomes are comparable its neighbors. It is urbanized. This is also not a case of religiously driven fertility: 🇲🇳 is primarily Buddhist and non-religious.

This is about the status of motherhood. In 🇲🇳, the president himself gives an award to every mother of four! 3/8Image
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Mongolian mothers of six are presented with the Order of Glorious Motherhood, First Class.
Second Class if you have four.

Here celebrated mothers descend the steps of the State Palace in Ulaanbaatar on a red and gold carpet, the statue of Genghis Khan directly behind them. 4/8Image
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The Mongolian president holds separate ceremonies by district, in order to be able to give more personal attention to recipients.
There is a cash award too, but it is just $60 for a mother of six.
Clearly, this a story motherhood and status in Mongolian society. 5/8

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So important is this award that Mongolia's consulates are even tasked with conferring the award to Mongolian mothers abroad.
Here, Mongolia's ambassador to the United Nations presents the award to a mother in Geneva. 6/8 Image
Status around motherhood is a crucial and under-appreciated driver of birthrates.

We have seen this elsewhere! By honoring parents, Patriarch Ilia of Georgia created a baby boom, something generous financial incentives elsewhere could not achieve. 7/
Status is incredibly important for most people, and we strive for status perhaps more than anything else.

Status helps explain the paradox that as societies become richer, fertility usually drops. Even though absolute well-being has risen, living in a wealthy society offers no increase in relative status. In fact, the status competitions of modern life, like education and career, directly compete with family life.

This also tracks with how in cultures where parenthood is elevated to high status, such as among religious subgroups like the Amish, Haredi Jews and traditionalist Catholics, fertility can be much, much higher.

As well, this helps explain the remarkable fertility of England and Wales during Victorian Times. Queen Victoria, the personification of the era, both inherited and carried forward a culture that conferred high-status on motherhood in raising nine children.

In Korea meanwhile, the highest status people are childless, and culture is filled with every status competition but one around parenthood.

The message is that we have to find a way to honor motherhood like our civilization depends on it.

Mongolia helps show the way!
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Follow @MoreBirths for more on the low birthrate crisis and hopeful answers to it.Image
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More from @MoreBirths

Dec 25
On this Christmas, we can reflect how Christianity was able to grow out of the ashes of collapsing Rome.

Scott Alexander reviews Rodney Stark's The Rise of Christianity and describes how the new faith won out by valuing women and children.
Important 🧵! Image
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Much like our world today, Pagan Rome faced terrible birthrates.

Sex-selective infanticide was the norm. Women were not valued and many men just wanted to stay single.

It got so bad that Roman General Macedonicus proposed forcing people to marry! 2/7 Image
When schemes to make marriage mandatory failed, Augustus tried taxing the unmarried and childless.

Alexander writes, "Formal and informal social pressure eventually convinced most Roman men to take wives, but no amount of love or money could make them have children." 3/7 Image
Read 8 tweets
Oct 23
The Cradle of Europe, Fading Fast
Italy is at the center of our world, with more cultural and religious heritage than anywhere else on Earth.

How did Italy, once famous for its family culture, become the most aged country in Europe and what could turn things around? 🧵!Image
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Italy's fertility in 2025 is just 1.12 births/woman, one of the lowest in Europe.

There are many statistics that help explain why the birthrate in Italy is so low, but one astonishing number stands out: Some 52% of Italian men aged 25-34 still live at home. 2/8 Image
"Failure to launch" is an unfortunate downside to Italy's famously close-knit family culture, and that hurts birthrates in several ways.

Italy has the EU's lowest marriage rate. On top of this, Italians have children later than any other country in Europe.

Low marriage and late childbearing are a recipe for low fertility on a national scale. 3/8Image
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Read 8 tweets
Sep 27
It has gone unnoticed that the most infamous school shooting in US history, the Sandy Hook shooting, may have had its origin in far left, antinatalist ideology.

Adam Lanza's recordings, found in 2021, expressed strong interest in antinatalism as well as p*dophilia. 🧵. Image
Adam Lanza's YouTube channel "CulturalPhilistine" was not discovered until September of 2021, some 9 years after the shooting, after public interest had waned. At the time of the shootings, Lanza's motives were a mystery.

The YouTube channel contained only audio but matched recordings of Lanza's voice. The strongest evidence that the channel belonged to Lanza is that it includes long readings from a 35-page college application essay that Lanza had submitted on the topic of p*dophilia.

Lanza's first and fourth recordings were on the topic of antinatalism and "antinatal" appears 24 times in the transcripts.

"Life is suffering" appears in the title of another recording, and this is a key part of antinatal ideology. 2/6Image
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In his recording "antinatalism at light speed" Lanza spoke of 'activist antinatalism' - just one year before he would kill 26 children and teachers at Sandy Hook elementary.

Lanza's recordings discuss not only antinatalism, but a more extreme online ideology called efi*ism. 3/6 Image
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Read 7 tweets
Aug 29
One of the strongest predictors of fertility for countries is how many children most people consider to be ideal.

This shows that values around children drive birthrates strongly. We also see that actual fertility (1.48) is far below what people say they desire (2.36). 🧵 Image
Notice how strongly fertility ideals predict actual fertility, with the ideal number of children predicting 64% of a country's TFR.

Why does the US have a higher birthrate than Europe even though family policies are much more generous in the EU? A stronger desire for kids. 2/5 Image
This also gets to the root of why Israel, alone among developed countries, manages to have above replacement fertility.

In Israel, the average 18-44-year-old sees 4 as the ideal number of children to have, far more than in other advanced countries. Truly a pronatal culture. 3/5 Image
Read 5 tweets
Aug 22
Published today, an important paper proposes a framework dividing total fertility rate into two component parts:
TFR = Total Maternity Rate (TMR) x Children per Mother (CPM)

This lens shows that virtually all recent declines in fertility were due to increasing childlessness. 🧵 Image
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Demographer @StephenJShaw realized that these two components of TFR, the total maternity rate (or equivalently, the childless rate) and children per mother move quite independently of each other.

That means one gets much more information from looking at both parts together. 2/6 Image
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Unsurprisingly, both lower rates of motherhood and smaller family sizes are contributors to the crisis of low birthrates.

But both factors matter since the policies helping people reach parenthood may be very different from the ones supporting or encouraging larger families. 3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
Aug 15
All of China has low birthrates, but northeastern China has the lowest fertility of any region in the world, lower than South Korea. Why?
It was in these regions that the one-child policy was most rigorously enforced, completely wiping out natalism from the culture. 🧵Image
China's One Child Policy is gone now, and since July 2021, all birth limits have been removed.

But while the OCP was in force, millions of pregnant Chinese women experienced the tragic brutality of forced abortion, which I explored in this thread (2/5):
But why did population control hit harder in the northeast than elsewhere in 🇨🇳?
First, NE China urbanized earlier and population controllers were more powerful in cities.
Second, most people in NE China worked for state-owned enterprises, putting them directly under the CCP. 3/5 Image
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Read 5 tweets

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