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Aug 24, 2024 8 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Elevating the Status of Motherhood Solves Low Birthrates: The Extraordinary Case of Mongolia
For 68 years, Mongolian leaders have given the Order of Maternal Glory to mothers. This raised the status of motherhood and helped forge a remarkably pronatal culture.
🧵, please share!Image
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Mongolia's pro-motherhood culture stands out on a fertility map. Fertility in Mongolia has consistently been 2-3 times(!) higher than neighboring areas in recent years and it has been increasing over the past 20 years, even as its neighbors have seen birthrates plunge! 2/8
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Mongolia's incomes are comparable its neighbors. It is urbanized. This is also not a case of religiously driven fertility: 🇲🇳 is primarily Buddhist and non-religious.

This is about the status of motherhood. In 🇲🇳, the president himself gives an award to every mother of four! 3/8Image
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Mongolian mothers of six are presented with the Order of Glorious Motherhood, First Class.
Second Class if you have four.

Here celebrated mothers descend the steps of the State Palace in Ulaanbaatar on a red and gold carpet, the statue of Genghis Khan directly behind them. 4/8Image
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The Mongolian president holds separate ceremonies by district, in order to be able to give more personal attention to recipients.
There is a cash award too, but it is just $60 for a mother of six.
Clearly, this a story motherhood and status in Mongolian society. 5/8

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So important is this award that Mongolia's consulates are even tasked with conferring the award to Mongolian mothers abroad.
Here, Mongolia's ambassador to the United Nations presents the award to a mother in Geneva. 6/8 Image
Status around motherhood is a crucial and under-appreciated driver of birthrates.

We have seen this elsewhere! By honoring parents, Patriarch Ilia of Georgia created a baby boom, something generous financial incentives elsewhere could not achieve. 7/
Status is incredibly important for most people, and we strive for status perhaps more than anything else.

Status helps explain the paradox that as societies become richer, fertility usually drops. Even though absolute well-being has risen, living in a wealthy society offers no increase in relative status. In fact, the status competitions of modern life, like education and career, directly compete with family life.

This also tracks with how in cultures where parenthood is elevated to high status, such as among religious subgroups like the Amish, Haredi Jews and traditionalist Catholics, fertility can be much, much higher.

As well, this helps explain the remarkable fertility of England and Wales during Victorian Times. Queen Victoria, the personification of the era, both inherited and carried forward a culture that conferred high-status on motherhood in raising nine children.

In Korea meanwhile, the highest status people are childless, and culture is filled with every status competition but one around parenthood.

The message is that we have to find a way to honor motherhood like our civilization depends on it.

Mongolia helps show the way!
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Follow @MoreBirths for more on the low birthrate crisis and hopeful answers to it.Image
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More from @MoreBirths

Mar 4
A new map shows the last time each country in Europe reached replacement fertility.

Most western European countries, including the UK, France, Germany and Italy haven't had replacement fertility in more than 50 years.

This is the main reason for Europe's stagnation. 🧵. Image
This map shows the sobering fact that once a country falls below replacement, it almost never bounces back.

Eastern Europe did not fall below replacement until the 1980s but has had exceptionally low fertility over the past 25 years. 2/4 Image
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The Americas have had healthy fertility until much more recently. The United States had replacement fertility as recently as 2007 and low birthrates are a recent problem in most of the hemisphere.

That is a big part of why the Americas have outperformed Europe economically. 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
Feb 27
A big fail in the New York Times today with the claim that "31 is the new 21."

The Times leads readers to believe today's young women will make up lost fertility in their 30s and 40s.

But all evidence indicates they will not. 🧵. Image
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First, the Times is ignorant of what recent research shows about age and infertility.

A big 2023 study of three million women by Geruso, Spears and LoPalo found that the ability to get pregnant is much lower in the 30s than the 20s.

So unfortunately, 31 is not the new 21. 2/4 Image
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Second, the fertility collapse tracks plunging rates of partnering in the US and elsewhere in the world.

There is no reason to expect birthrates to miraculously recover when people are single at higher rates than ever before.
(Chart by @jburnmurdoch.) Image
Read 4 tweets
Feb 24
A recent study found that giving men a pay raise led them to have more children, while giving women a pay raise led them to have fewer children. 🧵. Image
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For women, the effect of a pay raise was significantly reduced future fertility. A pay increase at 25 was associated with a large decrease in fertility at age 30, regardless of the skill level.

For men, a pay increase was associated with persistently higher fertility. 2/4 Image
Why? The authors argue that "the substitution effect between children and labor supply is dominating for women while the income effect is dominating for men."

Since childcare falls more on women, the competition between work and family is greater for women than for men. 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
Feb 16
A newly published paper found pronatal policies only worked when supported by culture.

"Maternity benefits increased fertility only among women who grew up in religious families" in the Baltics.

This could explain why many pronatal policies have not boosted fertility more. 🧵. Image
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In 1982, there was a big expansion in child benefits in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania including maternity leave wage benefits, a cash payment for birth and 18 months of job protection.

Five East European countries with comparable economic systems did not get the benefits. 2/5 Image
The study found, "among women who grew up in religious households, fertility went up by a statistically significant 5.7 percentage points representing a 46.3% increase."

Meanwhile, there was "no change in fertility among women who did not grow up in religious households." 3/5 Image
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Read 5 tweets
Feb 11
A new study finds that work-from-home raises fertility more than any conventional family policy.

"Estimated lifetime fertility is greater by 0.32 children per woman when both partners WFH one or more days per week as compared to the case where neither does." 🧵. Image
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In this chart, a large effect is clearly seen, with fertility higher when either partner has some work-from-home and highest when both do.

The authors say this is not due to selection because fertility rose among those that unexpectedly got WFH, compared to those that didn't. Image
Raising the work-from-home share of either partner by seven percent raised the one-year fertility by a similar amount, which means that families that have WFH have considerably higher fertility on average. Image
Read 6 tweets
Dec 25, 2025
On this Christmas, we can reflect how Christianity was able to grow out of the ashes of collapsing Rome.

Scott Alexander reviews Rodney Stark's The Rise of Christianity and describes how the new faith won out by valuing women and children.
Important 🧵! Image
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Much like our world today, Pagan Rome faced terrible birthrates.

Sex-selective infanticide was the norm. Women were not valued and many men just wanted to stay single.

It got so bad that Roman General Macedonicus proposed forcing people to marry! 2/7 Image
When schemes to make marriage mandatory failed, Augustus tried taxing the unmarried and childless.

Alexander writes, "Formal and informal social pressure eventually convinced most Roman men to take wives, but no amount of love or money could make them have children." 3/7 Image
Read 8 tweets

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