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Garry Kasparov Profile picture
@Kasparov63
Aug 25 • 2 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
I'm not a strict adherent of theories of geopolitical cycles, but there are trends. Democracy has been on the decline for two decades and very much needs a spark like Ukraine's victory. People imitate winners.
At the same time, Russia's defeat in Ukraine will materially weaken the dictatorships that count on Russian support and spiritually weaken the corrupt opportunists who hold Putin up as a model.

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More from @Kasparov63

Garry Kasparov Profile picture
Aug 12
Putin has been looting Russia for over 20 years; this is just doing it on a more personal level.
Societal apathy and corruption are useful for sustaining a dictatorship. Civil society is erased and the people collectively have no power, no stake, no interests beyond survival. But that lack of resistance applies to everything, including foreign invasion.
Ukrainians would be justified in seeking out every form of revenge on Russian soil after what Russia has done to them for 10 years. Torture, rape, murder of friends and family, entire cities destroyed. But their entire value system is different. Democratic, Western.
Read 6 tweets
Garry Kasparov Profile picture
Aug 6
My thoughts on the Harris VP choice haven't changed now that it's been made. Walz may be charming, but not picking Shapiro reflects tactical & strategic misjudgment. Locking up PA was critical, as was having a fighter who could go toe-to-toe with the vicious attacks to come. 1/4
The honeymoon is over & it's not a primary. Shapiro would counter Harris's woke ballast. But Harris wasn't comfortable with his abilities, another poor indicator. You can't be comfortable and beat Trump. He lies, cheats, and steals. It's a street fight. 2/4
With Shapiro, I'd have bet heavily on Harris to win, maybe even a landslide. Trump will keep talking, Vance will keep doing whatever it is he does, and the Biden map was in easy reach. Now I'm not so sure. Not just because of Walz, but what it says about the Harris campaign. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Garry Kasparov Profile picture
Aug 1
It's a wonderful day when friends and allies are released from Putin's gulag and able to see their families again. But do not forget that exchanging regime murderers & spies for innocent hostages & political prisoners promotes Russia's production of both. 1/6
I'm especially happy to see my friend @vkaramurza again, and for @ekaramurza, whose work and dreams are coming true. That good people like Volodya and journalists like Gershkovich are turned into subjects of torture and pawns to trade by Putin's dictatorship is abhorrent. 2/6
Those cynically rating this deal ignore that it serves Putin's interests or he wouldn't do it. He killed Navalny so he wouldn't be part of it and now he confirms to his cadres of spies and thugs that they will not suffer punishment for crimes they carry out for him. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
Garry Kasparov Profile picture
Jul 25
Yesterday saw two related events, Biden's Oval Office withdrawal speech and the defacing of US symbols by violent mobs in DC. They are reflections of US weakness, invitations to US enemies to go on the attack because America is unwilling or unable to defend itself. 1/8
Biden's withdrawal was long overdue; I called for it in the WSJ in October. This appearance made it clear it's gone beyond that. He should step down asap. I can hardly be called a Harris fan, but no one could watch Biden yesterday and think he is running the country. 2/8
Biden should be treated with due respect. But the most powerful nation on Earth needs a leader, not a figurehead. Despite what he said, the US *is* at war right now, a war against dictatorships & terrorists intent on reshaping the world order, with the US as enemy number one. 3/8
Read 8 tweets
Garry Kasparov Profile picture
Jul 22
A year ago, before the GOP primaries were over, I made a bet with a friend that neither Trump nor Biden would be taking the oath of office on Jan 20, 2025. The odds just got a lot better--for me and for the country. 1/6
I was never a Harris fan, but I'm also against closed-door decisions. Democracy works best in sunlight and a fight this late could be a catastrophe. It seems unlikely any qualified candidates will challenge her. The risk is an outsider seeking attention. 2/6
For her VP, I believe in the concrete. The lesson of 2004 (Kerry blundering by choosing Edwards over Gebhardt) is to get electoral votes in a state you need and can win. So Kelly in AZ, Shapiro in PA. Are many good candidates, and must push back to center. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
Garry Kasparov Profile picture
Jul 16
Three days later, it worked. Money and power, not ideology, not values. The financial support of a few people who believe caving in to Russia will profit them personally in the next few years is what passes for strategy in the Trump GOP.
But being angry at grasping demagogues like Trump & Vance is like being angry at a rabid dog, or at Putin. Yes, they are responsible for their actions, but we cannot expect different. They are what they are and say it. I’m angrier at those who say differently but act the same.
Trump and Vance don’t know anything about Ukraine, for example, and don’t care to. People with money and/or other leverage tell them what to say and they say it. The only way to change their behavior is to make a better offer, which is unlikely. It’s pathetic, but transparent.
Read 5 tweets

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