Crémieux Profile picture
Aug 25, 2024 1 tweets 3 min read Read on X
There's a popular saying that if you're not a liberal at 20, you have no heart, but if you're not a conservative by 40, you have no brain.

It might be more accurate to imagine that people's formative years have large, persistent impacts on their beliefs. A study by Andy Gelman showed how.

In the Gelman model, high presidential approval during a (White) birth cohort's teen years leads them to favor that president's party for the rest of their lives. Whatever the reason, it's as if they're acting to bring back the 'good old days' of their cognizant childhood. To get an idea of how this looks, look at Eisenhower Republicans:

The Eisenhower Republicans were those who missed most of the FDR years and were socialized in ten straight years of Republicans, of which the Eisenhower years had positive spin. As a result, that cohort became very pro-Republican, but then the very pro-Democrat Kennedy and Johnson years moderated them back to being a bit less pro-Republican.

The 1960s Liberals were born a bit later than the Eisenhower Republicans and they got to experience the pro-Kennedy and Johnson years in their formative years, but the next 25 years of strongly pro-Republican sentiment brought them to near-neutrality.

One of the most well-known political generations is the Reagan Conservatives. This generation got to experience strong pro-Republican sentiment and they ushered in the real Reagan Revolution: a cohort with strong pro-Republican leanings and little moderation due to the balance of sentiment between Clinton and Bush II, and Obama's nearly neutral sentiment.

Other cohorts like the New Deal Democrats and Millennials have their own biases that follow from the same dynamics, and if you plot them all together, you get a clear picture of the sentiment of the White electorate:

Now do note, I said Whites. This model works slightly better for non-Southern than for Southern Whites, and compared to those two groups, it works less than half as well for non-White minorities.

In any case, this model based on formative year impacts can explain roughly 90% of the variance in vote choices in the electorate. If you want to get people's votes, get them early in life, and you might be able to hold them through waves of less popular candidates from your own party.

Source: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111…Image
Image
Image
Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Crémieux

Crémieux Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @cremieuxrecueil

Sep 26
We know the answer to this question already.

The AAP gave out bad advice: they told parents to avoid giving their kids peanuts.

But as the LEAP trial showed, parents giving their kids peanuts early in life reduces the rates of peanut allergy by about 70%. Image
Israel has the solution: Bamba!

Stop avoiding peanuts and there won't be much of a peanut allergy issue to speak of.

It's that simple. Bad advice to parents created a generation of people with an unnecessary allergy. Image
And no, this isn't because exposure kills the weak kids.

The FDA just messed up badly on acetaminophen. Let's hope they don't mess up on this.

Source: evidence.nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Read 5 tweets
Sep 26
Details are scarce, but it appears Trump is about to double the price of...

80% of drugs?!

We have no idea if this applies to Bulk, APIs, or just finished drugs. It only says "Pharmaceutical Product", but just in case, I have simple advice: stock up now!Image
Details:

Of the top 100 brand-name drugs by Part D spend, 67 are finished outside the U.S.: pharmacychecker.com/research/not-m…

FDA holds the U.S. did 28% of API manufacturing in 2019: fda.gov/news-events/co…

GAO, citing FDA, says 40% of finished drugs, 80% of API: gao.gov/assets/gao-20-…
We do not yet know how this applies, it's just a Truth Social post, and it's, well, more than a bit alarming.

If you're one of the people using gray market GLP-1RAs, or considering them, my suggestion for many drugs holds for those: stock up!

Link: cremieux.xyz/p/how-to-get-c…
Read 4 tweets
Sep 25
About 78% of those arrested by ICE in Republican states are either criminals, have charges pending, or have committed some other violation.

In Democratic states, the number is about 60%. Image
Another interesting thing is that, as the arrests have increased, the severity has fallen:

The people ICE is arresting aren't as seriously criminal as they used to be, but there are more of them.

It's interesting to see this common tradeoff crop up in deportations, too! Image
The common tradeoff I'm referring to is that, as the number of people included in some category increases, the seriousness of the category often tends to fall.

For example, melanoma incidence went up, and became more benign. Image
Read 9 tweets
Sep 23
This replicates in many places.

For example, in Denmark, the broader the definition of autism (blue = broadest; red = narrowest), the more autism diagnoses have increased.

Crucially, this study also replicated the finding that symptoms are stable, while diagnoses are up.Image
I've previously noted that this same thing was observed elsewhere.

For example, it was seen in Sweden: stable symptom scores (i.e., the things defining autism), but people kept getting diagnosed at higher rates. Image
We can see this replicated in another cohort that showed that, as the percentage with autism diagnosed increased, the severity of their autism declined in lock-step: Image
Read 9 tweets
Sep 23
On the left, you can see child autism diagnoses.

On the right, you can see states with policies that give schools more money when their students are diagnosed with autism.

When these policies pass, autism diagnoses increase by almost 25% in one year! Image
Incentives matter for autism diagnosis.

For example, people on SSI receive larger payouts if they're diagnosed with autism.

After the economic downturn in 2008, the most heavily impacted age group started getting diagnosed with autism at an incredible rate: Image
Similarly, because laws in many places mandate providing more resources to autistic children, parents have sought to get their mentally retarded children diagnosed as autistic.

Using California as an example, more than a quarter of the rise 1992-2005 was due to this: Image
Read 14 tweets
Sep 22
The thing about anti-vaxxers is that they don't know things

They clamor to find ways to suggest vaccines are bad, but their arguments are silly because they don't know the basic institutional background that gave rise to today's "autism epidemic"

Thread on a ridiculous paper🧵 Image
This paper is by David A. Geier.

He's had some papers retracted.

A lot of his work has to do with other people having conflicts of interest—like working at a public health agency—, which makes some of the retractions extra funny, because they've been about his COIs. Image
David Geier is not a doctor.

But he has been punished for practicing medicine without a license.

Ironically, given his claim that public health officials are biased, he is heading up the HHS' autism initiative, set to announce they've found the cause of autism today. Image
Read 20 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(