Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 25 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
What the Palyanytsia drone-missile brings that other Ukrainian OWA drones lack is _SPEED_.

They are moving at better than 300 knots indicated, compared to about 100 knots for a propeller OWA drone.

AFU Jet OWA Drone impact🧵
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In 30 minutes, a propeller OWA drone reaches 92 km versus 277.8 km for a Palyanytsia drone-missile.

This makes a huge difference for the VKS scrambling jets to avoid Ukrainian drone attacks.

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While Russian VKS jets have moved back out of the 300 km ATACMS range.

VKS Attack helicopter forward area refueling points cannot.

This also complicates VKS attempts to shuttle bomb through forward air fields.


3/en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shuttle_b…
That is, refuel at forward air fields at either the leg of the glide bomb strike.

The VKS simply doesn't have enough "Midas" refueling tankers to give a lot of SU-34's the legs to provide the same level of glide bomb sorties the VKS are doing now.

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More from @TrentTelenko

Dec 8
I've been thinking on what is going on to reduce Russia VKS glide bomb attacks as shown

There are many possible reasons.

Fewer Russian glide bomb drops 🧵
1/
My first thought was to wonder if:

"Are we seeing Russian supply chain problems across its PGM production base due to foreign exchange shortages?"

Russia's Shaheed clones have new and inferior Chinese servo motors.⬇️
2/
I asked around and I was pointed to Ukrainian GNSS (AKA global positioning satellite signals) Spoofing as a more likely cause of the Shaheed-136 clone failures.

Also, that would have nothing with reduced glide bomb drops.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Dec 7
In another round of very useful translation, @sambendett points out the Russians have learned that drones are how combat power is measured in the 21st century.

The Russians didn't share drone tech with the SAA at scale.

Ukraine did with the HTS starting in June 2024.
1/
So the Assad regime fell.

Had Russia sent it's 'troublesome' drone units to Syria, rather than in meat grinder infantry assaults. Things might have turned out differently.

Dmitry "Goodwin" Lysakovsky was a legendary Russian extremist who became a drone
2/
...operator in the DPR army and stayed when it became Russian. 

"Goodwin" ran cross ways of his regimental commander for calling him out for dealing drugs to his own troops on social media.
3/
Read 5 tweets
Dec 7
The Russian use of FPV's to kill Ukrainian boat drones was well established six months ago.

1/
Ukraine gave the Russian navy some really big reasons to go there dating to that time.

Boat-Drones toting large heat seeking missiles to kill helicopters.

2/
That reason is why Russian naval helicopters have been carrying large numbers of FPV's since September 2024.

Why Western Navies have ignored these trends is a very good question for various Western governments.🤔

3/
Read 4 tweets
Dec 7
Mud season is over in Kursk.

Mobik frostbite & trench foot season is here, like has been blindingly obvious for the entire war.

Frostbite & Trench Foot 🧵

1/
The lack of Russian winter uniforms and waterproof winter boots in the "Professional" Russian Army was endemic in the winter of 2021-to-2022.

2/

The Wagner merc & Mobik filled winter of 2022-to-2023 was worse.

3/
Read 9 tweets
Dec 5
While these bases in Syria are a top Russian logistical priority, per the 🧵below.

The issue is the Russian version of the West's expeditionary warfare model is failing in the age of drones.

1/
Ukraine's HUR has had a drone warfare presence in Syria since June 2024 per Business Insider.

HUR spent that time teaching Syrian opposition militia how to do AFU style drone warfare.

Short form - The Syrian opposition has organic drone airpower.

2/
I've beaten on the drum for literally years about how Western analysts and the DC military-industrial complex types in particular don't understand small/cheap drones because it is against their interest to do so.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Nov 30
Pro-Russian/Pro-Syrian accounts on X seem to be a little behind on battlefield developments in Syria.

Assad SAA forces cannot be holding a defense line at Hama, if large columns of Syrian opposition forces have passed through Hama on the way to Homs.🙄

1/3
The reported mutiny of the 47th Brigade of the 11th SAA Division near Hama is playing a large role in this development.⬇️

Syrian opposition offensive is beginning to look a lot like the fall of the Republic of South Vietnam in 1975.

2/3
I've got some popcorn ready for the "VKS evacuation helicopters off of the Russian embassy in Damascus" moment.

Something like this Saigon 1975 photo with an Mi-17 in the starring role.

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Read 4 tweets

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