Thread by @AndrewHammel1

1/ The revelation that the Syrian Islamic extremist Issa al H. who killed three people and injured eight in Solingen was a failed asylum seeker who should have been deported is making some waves. But how likely are such attacks? Let's do the math.
faz.net/aktuell/politi…

2/ Last year, 351,000 illegal immigrants were allowed into Germany after saying the word "asylum" either at the border or when they walked into a local police station. That's literally all you need to do.

3/ They were mostly young and male (about 70% males under 40), and came primarily from Syria, Afghanistan, and Turkey. That's 254,700 young males in 2023 alone; numbers for 2024 are expected to be similar.

4/ Let's say 99% of these men are sane, have moderate religious views, and no latent or overt violent tendencies.

5/ We have to guess, since there is no preliminary psychological or security screening of these arrivals; what screening there is happens long after they have been let into Germany to live at taxpayer's expense, with no restrictions on their movement.

6/ That means that in 2023, Germany allowed in 2,547 men who *are* either mentally ill, dangerous fanatics, or some combination of both. Seven ticking time bombs every day.

7/ Since Germany only deports about 5-6% of failed asylum-seekers in any given year, these men will stay here for years, perhaps their entire lives. It's matter of pure luck whether they will actually be triggered by some news story or personal insult or radical online sermon.

8/ It's a matter of pure luck whether some foreign intelligence agency will detect them them preparing for an attack.

9/ Most German terror arrests come from tips from abroad, since Germany's own BND is "collapsing" from underfunding and bureaucracy, according to two former agency chiefs.
I've said it before and I'll say it again here: The problem is *the sheer numbers*.europeanconservative.com/articles/news/…

10/ Germany admits far more people than it can screen or monitor, year after year, ensuring a steady stream of entirely preventable crimes. Will this latest atrocity result in meaningful change, unlike all the previous ones? I'd say the chances are maybe 1 in 3...