1/ What would I have done to contain Covid if I were King of Europe? In the first phase, when we didn't know much about the disease, lockdowns until enough data had been gathered about risk/mortality/treatment, etc. Pour billions into vaccines starting Day 1, perhaps
2/ announcing a contest. During the late Spring/summer lull, which happens with all respiratory viruses, begin aggressive contact tracing. Temporarily suspend data-privacy regulations and create a vigorous, workable tracing app. Setting the GDPR aside is a whole lot
3/ less of a rights violation than a lockdown, isn't it? Organize massive track and trace teams to figure out where the virus is most likely to circulate. At the same time, during the summer, create thousands of portable container ICU beds and a staff of well-paid
1/ Most lockdown supporters don't understand cost-benefit policy analysis. The question is not whether lockdowns reduce Covid rates. The answer to that is a clear "yes": how could they not? Banning movement reduces infections, much like banning cars would reduce traffic deaths.
2/ The question is whether lockdowns prevent enough additional Covid cases *as compared to other policies*, such as warnings and advice. The question is also whether lockdowns prevent significantly more Covid cases than *the normal response of average citizens* to rising case
3/ numbers. The vast majority of people will react to rising case numbers by limiting travel and taking precautions on their own. How much does a formal government lockdown add to these voluntary precautions? What is the *marginal* added effect of lockdowns over government advice
@transatlantic@DavidVickery1 See, the problem with your reasoning is that whenever cases *fall* after governments impose lockdowns or other restrictions, you always attribute that to the lockdown. When cases *rise* after loosening, you attribute that to the loosening.
When cases *rise* after lockdowns, you say they would have risen further without them. When they *fall* after loosening, that just means other factors hindered the spread. It's a classic of selective biased reasoning, heads I win, tails you lose.
I'm inviting you to take the long-term perspective based on longitudinal time-series data, not random noisy news blips here and there. And when you look at that data thoroughly, as I have (and you haven't), it emerges that there is *no clear relationship* between
1/ There are plenty of Euros smugly turning up their nose at America's "election chaos" who don't understand a number of key things about the USA. Almost all European countries (in fact, most countries) have mandatory government registration of all residents.
2/ Anytime you move, you must notify government authorities of your new address. Europeans, who have lived with strong centralized states for centuries, simply accept this and have a hard time imagining how it could be different. And it's easy to keep these records in small
3/ countries with small populations. So in Germany, when elections happen, the government sends a vote authorization notice to your address, which you then take to the polls along with your national ID card. This indeed makes for simple elections, since the state