That sounds odd, because October 7 and the carnage in Gaza that ensued are still in play.
But there is blood and there is blood. I am speaking of an Al Aqsa/Temple Mount eruption.
2/
For centuries, the Al Aqsa the/Temple mount has been the detonator of choice for those seeking to trigger convulsive violence: from Montagu Parker and Ariel Sharon and many in between.
It's generally the same: a real purported threat or to the sanctity of the Mount.
3/
Purported incident? Yes. Under current circumstances it is eminently possible that a regional war will erupt over an event that never happened.
Don't get me wrong. Dangerous things are happening. Yesterday and today. They can't be ignored.
4/
Barebones definition of Status Quo (accurate but grossly inadequate) Muslims worship, non-Muslims visit. Netanyahu's words.
For years, Netanyahu has been allowing Jewish prayer on the Mount, and then denying it.
Was Netanyahu lying? Our Bibi? Yes. For years.
5/
Things changed with this government. The lunatics took over the asylum. A significant part of the Cabinet views the reversal of Moshe Dayan's decision to create the status quo to be the raison d'etre of the Netanyahu regime. Netanyahu is not stopping them.
6/
Twenty-five years ago, hundreds of Israelis would visit the Mosques and the Al Aqsa Museum on the site. Many with kippot. No police escort, no waqf guards accompanying them.
They comported themselves as guests and in accordance of the decorum on the site and were welcomed.
7/
Fast forward (momentarily ignoring the steady erosion of the Status Quo) & in walks Ben Gvir & his thugs.
They declare, in word and in deed, declare: guests? we're not guests. We're the landlord & we're here to collect the rent. And while we're at it. Get ready for eviction.
8/
Ben Gvir's visits have nothing to do with piety or worship. They have everything to do with extreme, messianic ultra nationalistic triumphalism They came to stick it to Palestinians and humiliate Muslims.
Netanyahu persists: no change in the Status Quo.
Any takers?
9/
Now to the past few days.
There is unapologetic large-scale Jewish prayer on the Mount, in violation to of the Status Quo and the law.
The Police, once a moderating influence, do nothing, taking orders from Ben Gvir.
10/
Yesterday Ben Gvir's announces his desire to establish a synajgougue on the Mount. Giggle, until you remember that he is no longer a racist buffoon without power. He controls the only police in the country. That's right, controls. A militia.
11/
Today, government sources disclose that the Government of Israel will commence funding of guided tour to the Temple Mount. What could possibly go wrong?
Have no mistake: nothing, absolutely NOTHING, takes place on the Mount without Netanyahu's knowledge and consent.
12/
Back to where we started. If this trend continues - and there appears to be nothing to stop it - this will sooner rather than later trigger convulsive violence, and under circumstances conducive to a regional war, with religious undertones.
There will be blood.
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For many years I avoided this subject like the plague. Some of the reasons I did so remain valid.
I do not believe that Israel can be bludgeoned into ending occupation.
Many of those advocating sanctions seek.vengeance, not a solution.
But
2/
But over time, my views have changed.
We are off the rails. And it didn't start with the onset of the Netanyahu regime. Official Israel promotes a metastasizing occupation, a majority of my compatriots are in denial of the existence of occupation.
3/
Israel's problem is not being singled out. Israel's problem is being given a pass extended to no one else.
We are morphing before our own eyes into the kind of society that decent people, who genuinely supported us, can no longer support.
This is important. Very important. Bear with me. If you're a cursory follower or impatient, don't bother.
Back in April, the Israeli Cabinet transferred the ministerial authority over what is called the Enforcement Authority to Ben Gvir's Ministry of National Security.
2/
This sounds mundane, but it's anything but. In essence, this gives Ben Gvir authority over home demoltions, including but not only in East Jerusalem. It grants Ben Gvir powers to decide how many and what gets demolished. And draconian authorities that suspend basuc rights.
3/
The Gov,'t resolution could only take effect with approval by the Knesset. A special session of the Knesset was scheduled four days later, to allow approval.
I sent out urgent warnings to friends in positions of authority, who could possibly do something.
2/ ...All the brigade commanders in Gaza tell me that every house you enter sees the Temple Mount, so you have to hit them where it's most important to them."
Please note. Ben Gvir does not say that he will ascend to the Mount (at least here). It's up to Netanyahu.
3/
There are two possibilities. Netanyahu will allow Ben Gvir to visit, but will deny he did. Or forbid Ben Gvir and deny he did.
Earlier today I was asked: "On a scale of 1-10, how would you assess risk of violence"?
The Supreme Court ruled that three Palestinian families who live in the Battan Hawa quarter of Silwan are to be evicted and their homes turned over to the East Jerusalem settlers of Aterter Cohanim
1. The settlers claim to rights in these and other EJ properties by taking over the Aministration of defunct century old religious endowments with which they have no prior connection.
2. The presiding Judge Solberg resides in West Bank settlement.
3/
3. Prior to the eviction judgment, the Court noted that the legal complexities of the case require the Attorney General to submit its position to the Court. Time after time the Court postponed it's verdict in order that the AG respond
Yesterday, April 8, the Netanyahu Cabinet decided to devolve the Authority for the Enforcement [on inter alia] Real Land of construction laws from the Ministry of Finance to the Minister of National Security.
In the eyes of the Palestinians in East Jerusalem, home demolitions are the most brutal & egregious manifestations of Israeli occupation. W/the exception of real or perceived threat to Al Aqsa, no issue in Jerusalem is more volatile & more incendiary than home demolitions.
3/
As per yesterday's Cabinet Resolution, very broad powers will now be vested in Ben Gvir and an Authority or which he is responsible. these include administrative demolition orders, cease work orders, execution of judicial demolition orders, and much more.