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Minna Ålander 🌻 Profile picture
@minna_alander
Aug 27 • 9 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
As a Finn, I know what it feels like to be part of a nation that is several generations into the healing process after an unjust aggression that was successfully averted but not without massive consequences. That’s why it’s killing me what we are doing to Ukrainians. A thread:
In the Winter War Finland wasn’t important enough for anyone in the world (not even its neighbours) to receive substantial military aid. The result could’ve been different if only we had had an air force. Sounds familiar ?
Finns were tactically & strategically totally superior to the Soviet army and inflicted incredible losses on the invader. But when the Soviets managed to shift the fight to an attritional frontline, Finland couldn’t sustain the fight due to much less manpower. Sounds familiar ?
The Finnish marshal Mannerheim ended up prioritising people over territory, but the conditions of the peace including loss of territory came as a great shock to the Finnish people who were determined to fight for their homes. Sounds potentially familiar ?
The result was an attempt to take back the lost territories (and maybe more), which obviously wasn’t a great idea - revisionism seldom is, even if there’s a just cause. Four more years of war resulted. Sounds potentially familiar ?
The worst was when in the weeks preceding the invasion, international press was full of the idea of “finlandisation” of Ukraine.

No Finn wishes that for anyone. It was an extreme survival strategy that forced Finland to pretend friendship with an invader.
The intergenerational trauma that still exists in Finland if you just scratch the surface struck me forcefully in the beginning of Russia’s full-scale war. I really hoped that Ukraine wouldn’t have to go through the same. I still hope so. It’s not too late yet.
On the Continuation War (1941-44) that followed the bitter interim peace of the Winter War:
On the Finnish air force in the Winter War:

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More from @minna_alander

Minna Ålander 🌻 Profile picture
Aug 22
For me, the most frustrating thing about Zeitenwende is that I hoped for it to include Germany learning to make right decisions and not always having to go through the loop of first making a bad decision and then being forced to correct course under pressure from partners. Alas
As a diplomatic source in Berlin astutely described it, “Zeitenwende could have been a quantum leap but they made it a time loop”
Also, it’s mind boggling that Germany, not only the largest economy in Europe but the 3rd largest in the world, thinks that allocating €34bn in total aid (incl military, humanitarian & financial) is somehow sufficient for a war on our continent…
bundesregierung.de/breg-de/schwer…
Read 6 tweets
Minna Ålander 🌻 Profile picture
Aug 14
With the Kursk operation proceeding beyond all expectations, Ukraine has reminded both Russia and the West that the war is far from settled.

I wonder whether many decision-makers and analysts in the west fully appreciate what’s at stake in this war. Some thoughts:
First: there’s no “deal solution” available. Not even Trump can “deal his way out” because there’s no status quo to return to.

At this point the war has unfolded a global effect that is the question whether the western-dominated rules-based world order will prevail.
It’s very much a win or lose situation. Russia has gathered around itself a group of states (Iran, North Korea, China) that are eager to challenge the West’s dominant position and all profit from the continuation of the war.
Read 11 tweets
Minna Ålander 🌻 Profile picture
Aug 9
People have been puzzling over Ukraine’s objectives in the Kursk operation. Politically, I can think of at least 7:

- catch Russia off guard and bring the war to Russians in a way they haven’t experienced before
- make Putin look stupid and hopefully generate discontent
- boost morale in Ukraine
- kill morale in Russia
- seize control of the information sphere
- show the west that Russia can be attacked without it resulting in WW3 (🤞)
- reassure western supporters that Ukraine can win this war
- put an end to the recently increased talk about when would be a good time to start negotiating by mixing up the front line
- tactically, to force Russia to move troops in a way that opens possibilities for Ukraine elsewhere

(Ok that was already 9 but one more:)
Read 5 tweets
Minna Ålander 🌻 Profile picture
Aug 3
This reminds me of a conversation I had in November 2022 with a Russian opposition-supporter who had fled Russia. They said that Finland’s visa restrictions on Russians are undermining our own value system.

A thread:
I explained that the extensive access Russians enjoyed to Europe was a privilege, not a right. Therefore, it can be revoked if the trust that’s the basis of granting such a privilege is broken.

No other third country nationals from the EU’s eastern neighbourhood had such access
Apart from the necessity to make Russian citizens feel the consequences of the war, which includes taking away that access to Europe, it’s also a security question. Due to Russia’s extremely cynical methods, it’s hard to know who might turn out to be a “little green man”.
Read 4 tweets
Minna Ålander 🌻 Profile picture
Jul 17
In the past 2 years, most Finns also seriously asked themselves the question: would I be ready to die defending my country ? And for most of them, the answer was yes. Finns know that a war would mean many of us dying. That’s why we want to prevent one (hence NATO membership)
In spring 2022, I had this conversation with literally all my friends: Finns living abroad wondering whether they should go back to Finland just in case, and even most left wing artist friends inquiring whether they could also contribute in some way to the war effort if need be
Now, the mood is different. Russia has emptied the border of troops and equipment (they’re all in Ukraine…) and it looks like it’ll take them a while to reconstitute in a way that would pose a serious military threat to Finland. The new military districts only exist in excel
Read 5 tweets
Minna Ålander 🌻 Profile picture
Jul 3
European NATO countries’ security isn’t separate from that of Ukraine.

The better the war goes for Russia, the more capacity it has free to stir up incidents in other countries - likely below the threshold of armed conflict but it’s a quite direct threat nevertheless.
Example from Finland: we had a peaceful year after submitting the NATO application as Russia was bogged down in Ukraine. Since fall 2023, after the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive, we’ve seen:
- instrumentalized migration
- several attempts at sabotage at water supply
- attempted break-ins (at least one successful) at other critical infrastructure, such as electricity supply.

These are almost daily in the news at the moment.
Read 8 tweets

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