Thread by @secretsandlaws

With Jack Smith not seeking Cannon's removal at this time, I think we can say that the MAL case is unlikely to go to trial until 2026 at the earliest, if Trump loses the election.

Cannon will be reversed by the 11th Circuit in the pending appeal. Assuming no SCOTUS review...

...she'll get the case back in late 2024/early 2025. But then immunity will be considered next, and I believe Cannon will rule in Trump's favor there too. See thread. Even then, it will be hard for Smith to seek her removal in light of the SCOTUS ruling.

https://x.com/secretsandlaws/status/1808124049379266619

That ruling will go the 11th Circuit too, and even if they reverse, it's likely that SCOTUS will take up this appeal. Between delays by Cannon (who will take her time ruling) and the 11th Circuit, it seems unlikely that SCOTUS will hear the case by April 2025, which means...

...it would get kicked to October 2025 unless they have a special session. So we'd be looking at a SCOTUS immunity ruling by late 2025 at the earliest.

If immunity is decided in Smith's favor, then we're finally back in district court getting ready for trial in late 2025.

BUT Cannon still hasn't ruled on:

--Trump's motion to compel add'l discovery, including scope of prosecution team (which could delay things by months)
--Trump's MTD for selective/vindictive prosecution
--Corcoran's notes
--And other stuff I'm too lazy to research

Then there's the remaining CIPA litigation. We have to go through CIPA Section 6(a) [use, relevance, & admissibility] & Section 6(c) [trial protections]. If the court rules against the government here, it can seek interlocutory appeal to the 11th Circuit, further delaying things.

Even with no additional appeals, that looks like another 4-6 months (minimum) of pre-trial litigation AFTER the immunity ruling is resolved, putting us at mid-2026 for trial. If there are more appeals, we're looking at potentially early 2027 for a trial date.

And even if Cannon is replaced by a judge who moves faster, & SCOTUS doesn't take up immunity, I think that still puts you at early 2026 at the earliest, as the 11th Circuit will certainly take up immunity.

This is what prompted one commentator to say:

https://x.com/secretsandlaws/status/1747772949279502575

Sigh.

It's another reminder that justice against Trump will only come at the ballot box in November, and as @DGComedy said, by Trump having to watch a black female prosecutor take the oath office on MLK day.

Focus on that, not these cases.