As Russian forces close in on Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub in Ukraine's Donbas region, concerns about its potential loss are mounting. There is uncertainty about why Pokrovsk is more significant than other recently lost towns. This thread aims to clarify this and other aspects:
2/ Before falling to Russian forces in February 2024, Avdiivka was vital for Ukrainian troops, serving as a fortress, protecting key logistical routes in Donetsk Oblast, and a potential foothold for deoccupying Donetsk. Since 2022, Russia has invested heavily in capturing it
3/ Pokrovsk, with a pre-war population of ~60,000, lies west of Avdiivka at a key railroad crossroads. It has become a key distribution hub, supporting Ukrainian forces along a broad frontline from Vuhledar to the north of Donetsk and beyond. The railways are highlighted in red
4/ Currently, only two places in the Donbas serve this vital function - Pokrovsk and Kramatorsk
The significance of Pokrovsk extends beyond its rail connections - it is also located at a key road juncture, serving a similar role in the transportation and distribution of supplies
5/ The road linking Pokrovsk to Kostyantynivka has long been a Russian target. Cutting it off would worsen the resupply of troops in the Bakhmut-Horlivka sector. The potential loss of Pokrovsk poses an operational threat to logistics in the region, from Vuhledar to Horlivka
6/ Another concern is the political one: Pokrovsk is just over 20 kilometers from the Dnipro Oblast border. Given Russia's re-entry into Kharkiv Oblast in May 2024, there's little reason to think Putin will stop at Donetsk and Luhansk borders.
7/ Since July, the pace of Russian advancement in this area has quickened, allowing them to bypass most of the defensive lines Ukraine rapidly built after Avdiivka’s fall. This is visible on the map by OSINT group @Black_BirdGroup, which used satellite imagery to map defenses
8/ Satellite imagery of seized UA positions shows signs of artillery shelling, though less extensive than in Ocheretyne. This likely indicates that Ukrainian troops in the Pokrovsk area retreated multiple times due to insufficient forces and resources for an organized defense
9/ While concerns about the lack of fortifications behind Avdiivka are valid, the major issue is the shortage of manpower and units to defend them. Regardless of how well-constructed the defenses are, if they are staffed at only 10-20% of capacity, they likely will be lost
10/ Typically, both Ukraine and Russia redeploy forces to stabilize critical areas by moving units from quieter sectors. Ukraine’s redeployment to Kharkiv, and then Sumy for the Kursk operation has reduced the available units for stabilization efforts.
11/ Does this mean that the loss of Pokrovsk is imminent? No, but the likelihood is increasing due to the balance of forces. Despite Ukrainian efforts to draw Russian forces away with the Kursk incursion, Russian leadership is hesitant to redeploy significant forces from Pokrovsk
12/ Ukraine has options to stabilize the line, including deploying new brigades, repositioning forces from Kursk and Kharkiv, or reallocating battalions from more stable fronts. However, time is against the defenders, and there is a risk of a serious operational catastrophe.
13/ The full analysis with detailed insights and nuances from Frontelligence Insight will be available soon on the @EuromaidanPress website and our own site. Follow our account to stay updated, and please like and share the opening message to help increase visibility.
14/ The full version of the article with better graphics and more details is available here:
The Ukrainian project @hochuzhit_com has published a photo of a document with Russian losses over 8 months, from January to September 2025. According to it, total KIA numbers 86,744, roughly 10,843 per month, which is very close to our earlier estimates. Total losses are 281,550
2/ The published document contains a breakdown by units. Our team will work tonight to verify whether the numbers match the Russian documents we have on hand, but at first glance, it appears authentic. Notably, over 33,966 are listed as MIA, so the majority of them are likely KIA
3/ This is very close to our earlier estimates published in July and August, which pointed to 8,400–10,500 KIA per month. These estimates have proven to be quite accurate, demonstrating that our methodology is precise and reliable
About 60% of the deep strikes on Russian territory are carried out by Ukrainian Fire Point FP-1 drones, which with a smaller payload can reach targets 1,500km within Russia and have sophisticated software that has proved resistant to EW jamming.
🧵Thread:
2/ Olena Kryzhanivska, an expert on Ukrainian weapons systems, notes that the FP-1s cost only about $55,000 each and are now being churned out at a rate more than 100 a day. Ukraine is also using the heavier and more expensive Lyutyi drone, which has a range of 2,000km
3/ There are also reports that FP-5 “Flamingo” cruise missiles have begun to be used. They are much faster than the drones, flying just 50 metres above the ground, with a range of over 3,000km and packing a huge punch thanks to a 1,150kg warhead
Russia is resorting to increasingly drastic measures to find recruits. The list has grown: beyond coercing detainees and conscripts, Moscow is now pressuring businesses to supply contract soldiers while further raising enlistment payments. 🧵Thread with all recent updates:
2/ Thanks to recent updates from @CITeam_en and iStories, we’ve learned that In Russia’s Primorsky region, officials told local business leaders they must help recruit men for the front. Employers were instructed to pressure their staff into signing contracts or contribute money
3/ In Voronezh oblast, officials sharply raised the bonus for signing a contract with the Defense Ministry. Governor Alexander Gusev boosted the regional payout from 505,000 rubles to 2.1 million. With federal payments added, the total now stands at 2.5 million rubles (~$27,000)
Since January, 21 of Russia’s 38 major refineries, facilities that process crude into fuels such as gasoline and diesel, have been hit, a new BBC Verify investigation found. The tally of successful attacks is already 48% higher than the total for all of 2024. 🧵Thread:
2/ BBC analysis shows reported attacks hit a record in August, when Ukrainian drones targeted 14 refineries, followed by eight more in September. Some of the strikes reached facilities deep inside Russia.
3/ In late September, the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat refinery in Bashkortostan was struck twice. Satellite images showed smoke rising from the facility, which sits more than 1,100 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
Russia is exploiting economic struggles in developing nations, luring thousands of Africans with promises of escaping poverty - only for many to end up KIA or missing. Key findings from Frontelligence Insight’s analysis of unique mercenary records in Africa and the Middle East:
2/ According to available data, Egypt is the leading contributor, with 291 documented cases. While the full roster of mercenaries remains incomplete, Egyptians make up nearly 25% of the more than 1200 records we have manually reviewed.
3/ We requested materials from the Ukrainian project @hochuzhit_com, which deals with POWs from all countries fighting for Russia, to see whether they have matching documents. Their records confirmed several individuals have been listed in Russia as missing in action:
Russia’s military rearmament, especially weapon production numbers, reveals much about its future plans. These numbers are usually hidden in classified documents, a problem Frontelligence Insight, with help from insiders, has solved. For the first time, we can share some of them:
2/ Before the release of the documents, spoilers of which an attentive eye may already have found in the image, we ask our followers to click the notify button in the profile so you don’t miss it. Many have reported that after updates, they don't see posts from those they follow
3/ While we prepare our X release, we invite everyone to read our latest research, based on tens of thousands of personal records of Russian deserters, published yesterday, but something you might have completely missed with the new “better” algorithms.