Thread by @sophgaston

A few thoughts on Starmer's trip to Berlin, and the investments being made into the UK-Germany bilateral relationship 🇬🇧🇩🇪

1. Germany has been a clear target, and Starmer's visit follows early trips by the Defence & Foreign Secs. There are political and policy reasons for this.

2. As PM, Sunak only visited Germany for the first time in April. But I believe that, even if the Tories had won the election, Germany would have been a bigger focus, as both parties made mentions in their manifestos. The breadth of issues identified for the Treaty shows why.

3. Repairing relations with European allies isn't a secondary mission of the Starmer government or an ambition confined to foreign policy - it's absolutely vital to his entire domestic agenda, in terms of driving economic growth, energy security, and managing irregular migration.

4. I'm struck by how well this trip abroad is being presented as an integrated domestic-international mission. HMG has often struggled to communicate in this way, but it will be essential to projecting a message of resilience. It also allows wins abroad to balance domestic pain.

5. Starmer has been tempered in his language about UK-EU relations and is managing expectations of what can be achieved. But there's clearly a view that these sorts of bilateral agreements with key allies could pave the foundations for bigger, long-term prizes at a UK-EU level.

6. Germany has transformed its defence posture in the past 2.5 years. It has something to learn from the UK's considerably more established security apparatus, and security culture. And there are benefits for the UK in securing greater German investment in military modernisation.

7. A UK-DE defence agreement will help to place pressure on the EU institutions to open up and reconfigure their defence industrial strategy approach, to make it more attractive and feasible for UK firms to collaborate at a UK-EU level. Would just need the French on board too...

8. The recent E3 statement (UK, FR, DE) was an important signal that Starmer intends to elevate our relations with these European allies to a point comensurate with our other G7 partners. I don't anticipate this coming at a cost of other relationships, but it will feel different.