Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #GE2019

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Short #THREAD on money & #GE2019,

The #GE2019 campaign attracted roughly £19 million in donations from individuals & £6.5 million from companies - £19.3 million (76%) of which ended up in the hands of the party representing the rich - the @Conservatives.

bylinetimes.com/2022/06/14/wha…
Much of the rest (more than £4 million) was funnelled to Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, which kindly stood candidates down in Tory constituencies, allowing the Tories an easier #GE2019.

Labour, by contrast, received little more than £350,000 from individuals & private enterprises.
Top investment bankers at HSBC scooped an average bonus of £596,000 each last year - this was on top of their £479,000 average salary, with one lucky employee falling into the £9.2 - £10million bracket.

NatWest bankers shared JUST £298 million for 2021.

thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/…
Read 5 tweets
#THREAD

Master of 'wedge issues', Lynton Crosby, has been attending Boris Johnson’s meetings in No 10.

The political strategist, whose advisory firm has represented tobacco as well as oil & gas interests, is at the heart of Johnson's political strategy.

theguardian.com/politics/2022/…
Like many senior Tories, Crosby is a master of 'Divide & Rule', & an expert in the 'Dark Arts' of voter manipulation, infamous for his 'dead cat' strategy & the promotion of toxic & deliberately divisive 'wedge issues' - evidence of which is everywhere in Britain at the moment.
A 'wedge issue' - a key component of the classic 'divide & rule' political strategy - is described as a political or social issue, often of a controversial or divisive nature, which splits apart a demographic or population group.

Read 44 tweets
Imagine if anyone working in the British press or news media had known about THIS prior to 2019!

What's that? Boris Johnson's antisemitic book came out in 2004, but the UK press & broadcast news media chose to focus on & demonise lifelong anti-racist Jeremy Corbyn instead?
Well imagine if anyone working in the British press or news media had known about ALL THIS prior to #GE2019!

What's that? Everyone in the UK press & broadcast news media DID know all this, but chose instead to focus on & demonise Jeremy Corbyn anyway?

Or imagine if anyone working in the British press & broadcast news media had known about THIS in 2020! What? Everyone DID know about it, but the UK press & broadcast news media chose to carry on misleading voters about Boris Johnson & demonise lifelong anti-racist Corbyn instead?
Read 3 tweets
#THREAD

The @Conservatives' long-term plan to destroy #Britain's #NHS & replace it with a private health insurance model is nearing completion.

Just add it to the growing list of casualties caused by Tory acts of short-sighted ideological vandalism. 🇬🇧

theguardian.com/society/2022/j…
The poor will make do with a dangerously underfunded #NHS, while the rich will hand money to corporations in exchange for profit-motivated superficial corner-cutting healthcare, from which, many @Conservatives with private healthcare interests will do VERY well.
A survey of more than 20,000 frontline #NHS staff reveals that four out of five respondents said staffing levels on their last shift were not enough to meet all the needs & dependency of their patients. The @Conservatives knew this would happen & failed to adequately plan ahead.
Read 46 tweets
Let's have a quick #THREAD on troubled Johnson-brown-nosing robotic hard-right Tory MP Jonathan Gullis - a controversial member of the European Research Group, & a parliamentary backer of FREER, an initiative run by the opaquely funded neoliberal Institute of Economic Affairs.
He stood in Washington & Sunderland West at #GE2017, losing to the incumbent Labour MP Sharon Hodgson, but somehow was elected as the MP for Stoke-on-Trent North at #GE2019, unseating Labour's Ruth Smeeth & becoming the first Conservative to represent the constituency.
At the time of his election, Gullis was employed as a school teacher & head of year at an Academy in Sutton Coldfield, & somewhat bizarrely for a Tory MP, served as the school's trade union representative, but he's spent his time as an MP railing against the Left & the 'woke'.
Read 16 tweets
#THREAD

Somehow I've managed to stay blissfully unaware of grotesque hard-right dimwit & Tory MP Karl McCartney.

Who is ?

Let's allow his words, record, & myriad investigations to speak for themselves...
In March 2017, the Electoral Commission fined the @Conservatives £70,000 following an investigation into Party spending during #GE2015 (the same Electoral Commission that oversees free & fair elections, & which the antidemocratic Tories have just removed independence from).
During #GE2015 coaches of activists were transported to marginal constituencies, enabling its candidates to gain a financial advantage over opponents. In consequence, Karl McCartney was investigated by Lincolnshire Police over spending rules.

thelincolnite.co.uk/2016/06/lincol…
Read 20 tweets
Yesterday was the worst day for UK democracy in 200 years: following the 1819 #PeterlooMassacre, the UK Govt introduced draconian legislation, reminiscent of the #PoliceBill - the so-called 'Six Acts', which aimed at suppressing any meetings for the purpose of radical reform.
As for the Elections Bill, there were just 6 cases of in-person electoral fraud at #GE2019. For this, the Govt is disenfranchising 3 million or so of the electorate who don’t have ID, the majority of whom are young &/or from poorer & BAME backgrounds, who tend to vote @UKLabour.
As for the UK Government's grotesque Nationality & Borders Bill - & the abhorrent 'deal' with #Rwanda - it has been universally criticised by human rights organisations because, shamefully, it "undermines established international refugee protection law".

unhcr.org/news/press/202…
Read 5 tweets
So Tories have: criminalised protest; introduced laws meaning journalists can be jailed for 14 years for embarrassing the Govt; removed independence from the Electoral Commission; introduced voter ID despite just 6 cases at #GE2019; & banned teaching anti-capitalism in schools.😬
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"Alexa, which British political @Twitter accounts have a much higher proportion of Fake Followers than other similarly sized accounts measured by followers?"
Elon Musk - who wants to buy @Twitter & who already has the highest Fake Follower score I've ever seen - should write a book called 'How To Buy Friends & Influence People'.
And let's #NeverForget that according to The Tory-supporting Telegraph, the @Conservatives 'hired an army of tweeters to take on Jeremy Corbyn's supporters on social media'.

In the UK & USA the biggest spenders nearly always win general elections.

Read 8 tweets
Let's have a little look at the @Conservatives' record since #GE2019:

Ignored warnings & let 180,000 people die

Broke rules & laws that everyone else had to follow, then repeatedly denied doing so

Handed £BILLIONS of OUR money to THEIR mates for CRAP products that didn't work
Killed off social mobility

Steadfastly ignored the plight of disabled people

Sold off to overseas investors almost everything left to sell off

Relentlessly demonised asylum seekers, refugees & migrants

Overseen the biggest transfer of wealth from poor to rich in living memory
Continually lied to voters

Announced their intention to destroy Human Rights

Funded their Party with dirty money from Russian oligarchs

Attacked as 'anti-British' some of our greatest institutions, such as the @BBC, the @RNLI, the @nationaltrust & the @England football team
Read 9 tweets
Given our antiquated electoral system, imho the most likely route to removing the Tories from power is still to elect a Labour Govt. But I can also see how UKIP pulled the Tories & 'the centre' a long way to the right, so I'm not averse to a left-wing party led by @jeremycorbyn.
Inevitably, this tweet arouses strong feelings from two (broadly speaking) camps in particular:

1 the 'Starmer's @UKLabour are Tory lite'
2 the ONLY way to dislodge the Tories is by supporting Labour.

While sympathetic to both these views, I'm up for a bit more nuance on this..
It wasn't just UKIP who pulled 'the centre' to the Right - Farage & Tice's (no-deal) 'Brexit Party' was formed in November 2018 & (arguably) not only pulled the Tories even further right, but many (mistakenly) believed it would split the Right's vote & help the Left at #GE2019.
Read 11 tweets
Hard-right Tory MP & GB "News" presenter Dehenna Davison, attacks Britain's free press for the crime of *asking her questions*, after she was photographed with anti-vax literature which she claims was unsolicited.

A GB "News" presenter COMPLAINING about BEING ASKED QUESTIONS! 🤪
If you're not familiar with Dehenna, here's some basics:

She's from Sheffield, then went to Hull University & during her time there she spent a year working as a parliamentary aide for nonother than Jacob Rees-Mogg, which is presumably where she was radicalised.

Suits you sir!
On 14 February 2020, it was reported that she had been photographed with two far-right activists at a party to celebrate Brexit on 31 January in her constituency. Advocacy group Hope not Hate called for the Conservatives to undertake an investigation.
Read 12 tweets
In the real world - away from the propaganda of the corrupt Govt & the toxic infantile right-wing press - "levelling up" actually means half of all UK families are WORSE OFF than they were at #GE2019, while the richest 5% are BETTER OFF by £3,300/year. 🤬

neweconomics.org/2021/12/two-ye…
"Unarguably, Covid has widened Britain’s wealth gap still further, accelerating a divergence already in train for decades. The fortunes of the asset-rich have waxed while those of the asset-poor have waned" - FACTS the corrupt lying Tories ignore or deny.

theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Donations by the UK's top 1% fell by a fifth in real terms from 2012 to 2019, despite soaring incomes, meaning charities have missed out on over £2BILLION. Over the same period donations from the rest of us rose.

It's a war between the 1% & everone else.

theguardian.com/money/2021/dec…
Read 5 tweets
#THREAD

This is absolutely catastrophic for Britain.

Gisella Stuart has about as much 'commitment to impartiality' as the law-breaking Vote Leave campaign did when she was Chair.
In October 2004, she became the only @UKLabour MP who openly supported the re-election of dimwit warmonger George W. Bush, arguing "you know where you stand with George and, in today's world, that's much better than rudderless leaders who drift with the prevailing wind".
She wrote that a victory for Democratic Party challenger, John Kerry, would prompt "victory celebrations among those who want to destroy liberal democracies. More terrorists and suicide bombers would step forward to become martyrs in their quest to destroy the West".
Read 17 tweets
Tory & @UKLabour vote share*, 1918 - 2019.

Only THREE times since 1918, has a vote swing of over 9% been recorded: to a National Govt in 1931, & to Labour in 1945 & 2017.

*The UK's antiquated FPTP electoral system means seats are more important than either votes or vote share.
On three occasions, the party with the most votes did not win the most seats.

In 1929 and in February 1974, Labour polled fewer votes than the Conservatives but had more MPs. In 1951 the Conservatives won the most seats, but received fewer votes than Labour.
Votes/seat #GE2019

SNP 26K
Tory 38K
Labour 51K
LibDems 336K
Greens 865K

#GE2017 resulted in a hung parliament.

At #GE2019, Johnson's Tories got just 329,767 more votes than in 2017, but an 80 seat majority., despite fewer than 3 in 10 of the electorate voting Tory.
Read 12 tweets
#THREAD

Starmer's Labour risks losing even more of the membership & union support, meaning it would lose the majority of its funding & be in the position of having to appease powerful corporate & elite interests.

More importantly, it runs the risk of losing its identity & soul.
Google 'Keir Starmer & Labour' & you're directed to an uninspiring webpage, entitled "Reform & Unite". 🥱

In "The Labour Party Under Keir Starmer: ‘Thanks, But no “isms” Please!’", Politics Prof Eunice Goes casts a critical eye over Starmer's Labour:

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.11…
Portraying himself "as a competent & unifying leader who has turned the page on Corbyn’s legacy of factionalism & radical politics", & 'downplaying Labour’s socialism', suggests Starmer’s strategy is one of "ideological quietism" that seeks to win the wide support of voters.
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FUN FACT for *ALL YOU PEOPLE*: fewer than one in three of the electorate voted Tory in #GE2019. ImageImage
*One* fake follower is too many for me - but it's curious that it appears to be the case that the more right-wing you are, the more fake followers you accumulate - almost as if the majority of decent folk are battling an army of fake anonymous right-wing troll accounts. 🤔 ImageImageImageImage
Just testing my hypothesis that the more right-wing you are, the more fake followers you accumulate: Image
Read 5 tweets
The Blue Wall.

What is it, and why should we care?

Well, by my reckoning, the 53-seat strong Blue Wall is a line of Conservatives-held constituencies in the South of England, stretching from Lewes to Stroud.

Plus a few 'islands' dotted across the South and East of England.
The definition I am working with is heavily based on work in Brexitland done by @ProfSobolewska and @robfordmancs:

- Voted to Remain in 2016 (according to @chrishanretty estimates)
- Have a higher than average (25%+) proportion of graduates
- Are in the South or East of England
The Blue Wall is the flipside of the Red Wall coin.

Just as many North/Midlands seats which have traditionally voted Labour are now moving to the Conservatives as the great Brexit realignment rumbles on, many seats are slowly moving away from the Tories in the South and East.
Read 9 tweets
Alrighty, Chesham and Amersham!

Lib Dem gain, swing of 25pts.

This thread will be specifically about the by-election. I’ll do a separate one on the ‘Blue Wall’ idea and what C&A tells us about the Gold shift hypothesis later.

First up, should we have seen this coming?

Yes.
Things always, always look easier and clearer in hindsight, so I’m not going to do any daft “I told you so” takes.

But if you’ll indulge me, cast your mind back to May, then to Dec 2019.

Places like C&A have been trending away from the Conservatives for a number of years now.
In the May 2021 locals, the Lib Dems (and Labour, Greens) cannoned through council after council in the South East + East of England, hoovering up Tory
seats. See results in places like Surrey, Bucks, and specifically C&A as @markpack pointed out: markpack.org.uk/167476/lib-dem…
Read 12 tweets
#THREAD

Various bankers & journalists have recently been very upbeat about the prospects for Britain's economic recovery:

"The British economy will be booming. It is not yet widely appreciated just how big this boom will be" - Andrew Neil.

My advice: don't believe the hype.
Last week the Bank of England said: "Economic growth in Britain this year should not be confused with a normal boom... economy shrank almost 10% last year, biggest slump in 300 years".

While the opinion polls show a 'vaccine bounce' for the Tories, again: don't believe the hype.
A fascinating new opinion poll by the respected Pew Research Center, discussed in the Financial Times, tells a fascinating story about how a clear majority in the US & Western Europe support large scale, systemic change.

pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021…
Read 14 tweets
So here we are again.

A #THREAD on some lessons for @Keir_Starmer & @UKLabour from when John Smith became Labour leader back in 1992, after another humiliating defeat.

How does Labour become electable again?
When John Smith became leader of the Labour Party in July 1992 he introduced the ‘one member one vote’ system for electing the Party leader but otherwise wanted to minimise conflict within the Labour Party, which was still smarting from the general election defeat under Kinnock.
He wanted to heal divisions and focus instead on the unpopularity of the Tory Government.

Blair's henchman John McTernan stated John Smith and Labour were heading for “certain victory” in the 1997 general election.
Read 71 tweets
What is the lesson from #HartlepoolByElection for forecasting future elections?

I have 2 hypotheses.

1. Hartlepool was behind the curve in #GE2019 & the by-election represents catch up.
2. #Brexit realignment of British politics is still continuing.

Let's look at them... /1
The 1st can be confirmed just by looking at CON vote share changes between 2010 & 2019 in Hartlepool's 4 neighbours.

Easington > from 14% to 26%
Sedgefield > from 23% to 47%
Stockton N > from 26% to 41%
Redcar > from 14% to 46%
Hartlepool > from 28% to 29%

So the jump ...

/2
... to 52% in this by-election can be put down to #Hartlepool copying its neighbours 2 years late.

But could this indicate the Brexit realignment of 2019 was incomplete & there could be more Hartlepool's?

The answer is yes. Note how nearly all BXP voters went to CON ...

/3
Read 10 tweets
Fewer than 3 in 10 of the electorate voted Tory in #GE2019.

Of the 30 lowest constituency turnouts, all bar one were in the north of England. In 287 constituencies (44%), turnout was less than two-thirds of the electorate.

In the #HartlepoolByElection, just 22% voted Tory.
The turnout in #Hartlepool was just 42.3%, but this is still a significant increase on the 2018 local elections, when the percentage of registered voters who returned a ballot in Hartlepool was the lowest in the country, at just 24.2%
In #GE2019, turnout tended to be higher than average in constituencies with a larger proportion of older residents.

Also, 26 seats were won with majorities of less than 2%, 141 seats out of 650 were won by a margin of less than 10%, within an overall average turnout of 67.3%.
Read 4 tweets
The working class is BY FAR Britain's most ethnically diverse class.

Virtually ALL w/c people are kind, decent, & not remotely 'bigoted'.

Instead of chasing the greedy or gullible 3 in 10 Tory voters, @UKLabour should listen to & inspire the 7 in 10 voters who didn't vote Tory.
And yes, you read that right: less than 3 in 10 of the electorate voted for the @Conservatives in the 2019 general election - and now they want criminalise protest.
Votes/seat #GE2019:

Tory 38K
Labour 50K
LibDems 336K
Greens 886K

Of the 47,074,800 registered voters, 67.3% voted in #GE2019. Of those, 43.6% voted Tory.

This means that *LESS THAN 3 in 10 OF THE ELECTORATE* secured the Tories an 80 seat majority.

It's simply ridiculous.
Read 4 tweets

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