Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #GE2019

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So here we are again.

A #THREAD on some lessons for @Keir_Starmer & @UKLabour from when John Smith became Labour leader back in 1992, after another humiliating defeat.

How does Labour become electable again?
When John Smith became leader of the Labour Party in July 1992 he introduced the ‘one member one vote’ system for electing the Party leader but otherwise wanted to minimise conflict within the Labour Party, which was still smarting from the general election defeat under Kinnock.
He wanted to heal divisions and focus instead on the unpopularity of the Tory Government.

Blair's henchman John McTernan stated John Smith and Labour were heading for “certain victory” in the 1997 general election.
Read 71 tweets
What is the lesson from #HartlepoolByElection for forecasting future elections?

I have 2 hypotheses.

1. Hartlepool was behind the curve in #GE2019 & the by-election represents catch up.
2. #Brexit realignment of British politics is still continuing.

Let's look at them... /1
The 1st can be confirmed just by looking at CON vote share changes between 2010 & 2019 in Hartlepool's 4 neighbours.

Easington > from 14% to 26%
Sedgefield > from 23% to 47%
Stockton N > from 26% to 41%
Redcar > from 14% to 46%
Hartlepool > from 28% to 29%

So the jump ...

/2
... to 52% in this by-election can be put down to #Hartlepool copying its neighbours 2 years late.

But could this indicate the Brexit realignment of 2019 was incomplete & there could be more Hartlepool's?

The answer is yes. Note how nearly all BXP voters went to CON ...

/3
Read 10 tweets
Fewer than 3 in 10 of the electorate voted Tory in #GE2019.

Of the 30 lowest constituency turnouts, all bar one were in the north of England. In 287 constituencies (44%), turnout was less than two-thirds of the electorate.

In the #HartlepoolByElection, just 22% voted Tory.
The turnout in #Hartlepool was just 42.3%, but this is still a significant increase on the 2018 local elections, when the percentage of registered voters who returned a ballot in Hartlepool was the lowest in the country, at just 24.2%
In #GE2019, turnout tended to be higher than average in constituencies with a larger proportion of older residents.

Also, 26 seats were won with majorities of less than 2%, 141 seats out of 650 were won by a margin of less than 10%, within an overall average turnout of 67.3%.
Read 4 tweets
Did you behave with selflessness, integrity, objectivity, accountability, openness, honesty & leadership when you had sex on your sofa in your marital home with your mistress you helped get money & lied about it?

Boris Johnson: "Yes" 🤦‍♂️

#TorySleaze #ToryLiars #DowningStreet Are affairs and lying are open and honest?
Here is @paulwaugh's question about Jennifer Arcuri..

..Boris Johnson answered one word

"Yes"

The PM seems to have had the first ever affair with honesty & integrity 🤔

#TorySleaze #ToryCronyism #ToryCorruption #ToryLies #ToryHypocrisy #ToryShambles
Jennifer Arcuri says her romance with Boris Johnson - who was Mayor of London at the time – lasted from 2012 to 2016, while he was married to Marina, mother of their 4 children.

He spoke at her events & she went on to receive £126,000 of taxpayer money 😲
mirror.co.uk/news/politics/…
Read 27 tweets
The working class is BY FAR Britain's most ethnically diverse class.

Virtually ALL w/c people are kind, decent, & not remotely 'bigoted'.

Instead of chasing the greedy or gullible 3 in 10 Tory voters, @UKLabour should listen to & inspire the 7 in 10 voters who didn't vote Tory.
And yes, you read that right: less than 3 in 10 of the electorate voted for the @Conservatives in the 2019 general election - and now they want criminalise protest.
Votes/seat #GE2019:

Tory 38K
Labour 50K
LibDems 336K
Greens 886K

Of the 47,074,800 registered voters, 67.3% voted in #GE2019. Of those, 43.6% voted Tory.

This means that *LESS THAN 3 in 10 OF THE ELECTORATE* secured the Tories an 80 seat majority.

It's simply ridiculous.
Read 4 tweets
British people deserve MUCH better than a Govt of delusional backward-looking bankers, bigots, bullies & lobbyists, headed by a sociopathic liar, & supported by a fawning media owned by billionaires & populated with free-market cranks, charlatans, grifters & Little Englanders.
Thought for the day:

Less than 3 in 10 of the electorate voted for the @Conservatives in the 2019 general election - and now they want criminalise protest.
Votes/seat #GE2019:

Tory 38K
Labour 50K
LibDems 336K
Greens 886K

Of the 47,074,800 registered voters, 67.3% voted in #GE2019. Of those, 43.6% voted Tory.

This means that *LESS THAN 3 in 10 OF THE ELECTORATE* secured the Tories an 80 seat majority. 🤯
Read 6 tweets
Following the widely unreported news that Boris Johnson is facing growing condemnation for an “appalling” Tory alliance with neo-Nazi & anti-Muslim parties across Europe, it reminded me how little traction Tory #antisemtism has got in the news since 2015.

independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
I think most people are aware of Boris Johnson's book '72 Virgins', with its references to Jews controlling the media, Arabs with “hook noses” & “slanty eyes” & the mentions of “pikeys” & "coffee-coloured “half-castes”, so I won't dwell on it.

independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
In October 2016, many pointed out the similarities between May's "If you believe you are a citizen of the world, you're a citizen of nowhere", & the language used by Hitler in Mein Kampf, & in Stalin's anti-"rootless cosmopolitan" campaign against Jews.

jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/vince-cable-co…
Read 41 tweets
Just try listening to the rambling incoherent bullshit-waffle tumbling out of Spaffer's mouth when confronted with a half decent question about the outrageously corrupt 'fact-checking' debacle just before the 2019 General Election.

He's our PM FFS!

We already knew the @Conservatives used disinformation tactics with a “new level of impunity” during #GE2019, and so we now have the most shamelessly corrupt Govt in UK history, & sadly, most pundits, journalists, voters & politicians don't seem to mind.

independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
And here's Winston Chuchill's wartime secretary, Lady Williams, who in 2019 told voters:

“Boris Johnson is not remotely like Winston Churchill... Churchill was meticulous about truthfulness & straightforward talk. There’s no similarity there at all.”

independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
Read 8 tweets
In 2018, Steve Bannon was in contact with Boris Johnson, Michael Gove & Jacob Rees Mogg, & announced he intended to 'unite the European far right & undermine & ultimately paralyse the #EU'. He now faces up to 20 years in jail if convicted of embezzlement.

theguardian.com/us-news/2020/a…
Bannon gets around. 'Emails from a Cambridge Analytica employee revealed that Arron Banks had sought Bannon’s help in soliciting campaign donations from US funders. We have no idea if Banks went ahead, but it would have been illegal for him if he had.'

theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
Here's Boris Johnson going FULL TRUMP by accusing a #PulitzerPrize nominated journalist of writing 'complete codswallop', ironically after being asked about his PROVEN links with Trump's ex-campaign manager & ex-Cambridge Analytica co-founder Steve Bannon.
buzzfeednews.com/article/lester…
Read 8 tweets
Today at 5pm is the deadline for evidence to the Forde Inquiry into the #LabourLeaks. But the mainstream media didn't want us, the voters, to know what was being done to nobble the one chance that we had of defeating the #Tories. Why? Because so many of them had that objective.
That thread shows that if @guardian's journalists had been doing their job, they could have discovered & told us what @JoeRRyle & others had found: "Not only did they not want Labour to win under Corbyn, they seemed to be actively trying to lose." opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocra…
How do we know for a fact that so many MSM journalists didn't want #JeremyCorbyn to succeed, or at best were merely 'doing the job' their employers had told them to do? @lborouniversity has the numbers for #GE2019: lboro.ac.uk/news-events/ge…
Read 4 tweets
On Lady Luck and Investment Strategy. linkedin.com/pulse/lady-luc…
Ethereum, The prescient augur of exchange. linkedin.com/pulse/ethereum…
Tides of the Dollar Moon (a poem) linkedin.com/pulse/tides-do…
Read 26 tweets
If you've been following @bestforbritain, you'll know that attention to good data forms a central part of our work as an organisation.

We've just concluded an in-depth and expensive MRP poll on issues pertinent to Britain's future.

This thread summarises our findings:

1/12
First, a note:

This MRP analysis has been conducted for us by Focaldata, who were the MRP provider for the Conservatives at the last GE.

Because of how opinions were sampled, the results quoted are slightly more representative of Conservative & leave-leaning demographics.

2/12
We found that:

70% of voters in ‘red wall’ and switcher seats (that flipped from Labour to Conservative at the last election) said they wanted the UK to prioritise working with Europe...

...compared to just 20% who said they want UK to work most closely with the US.

3/12
Read 12 tweets
Let's pause for a minute, and review just what happened to The #LibDems at #GE2019.

Unlike the recent hand-wringing internal review, I don't believe for a second that the policy to #RevokeArticle50 was toxic to the majority of potential #LibDems voters.
1. The Labour Party's refusal to enter into stand-down pacts.

History is already being rewritten, placing the blame for non-cooperation on The #LibDems.

This simply isn't true.

Even Labour MPs at the time, admitted it was LABOUR whom refused.

businessinsider.com/labours-rosie-…
2. Fear of a Corbyn-led government outweighed concerns regarding Brexit.

In polls during the weeks preceding #GE2019, it was clear that Boris Johnson wasn't very popular...

But it was also clear that Jeremy Corbyn was EXTREMELY unpopular.

thestreet.com/.amp-mishtalk/…
Read 13 tweets
"Trust has never mattered more!" In 2019, in the battle for trust & for truth, @guardian was on the wrong side: they didn't let @davidgraeber explain the war inside @UKLabour against @jeremycorbyn, battles for the Cable Streets of our minds: @FWWTMurals …blingsthoughtsandfiction.blogspot.com/2016/10/battle…
What did @davidgraeber see? "The apparently endless campaign [for control of @UKLabour] by politicians like Margaret Hodge, Wes Streeting, & Tom Watson to weaponize antisemitism accusations against the [then] leadership of the Labour party...a form of antisemitism in itself."
We knew what kind of bullets Israeli forces were firing at men, women & children near the boundary fence of that open-air prison called #Gaza. We saw with disgust that some high-profile faces of Labour stood proud with the flag of the state 'that knew where each bullet landed':
Read 17 tweets
Undoubtedly, #GE2019 was a shock. To an extent, Cummings & co seemed to have found a magic formula (and a slogan). But look how short lived it was. The last couple of days have been a case study of how out of touch the @Conservatives are in reality. Three big signs: (1/5)
1. The idea that you could, as the Government, advise people to avoid pubs etc, whilst pulling the rug from under the owners. The sheer arrogance to think that small business people would be ok with being abandoned & fobbed off with the most woeful #Budget2020 measures. (2/5)
2. Ignoring completely the fact that small businesses are not just one-person operations, as if it was the Apprentice, but collectively the employers of millions. Whole Government response to #Corvid19uk ignored the workers, because to the @Conservatives, they hardly exist. (3/5)
Read 5 tweets
So going to be on the way home for a while, so a few thoughts now we have officially left the E.U. (but brexit is far from done) on what the remain movement must do now.

1/
It’s obviously a very sad day, brexit has happened, we have lost our voice on the international stage and so many of us fear for the harm that will be caused to our country & the people in it, but there is a lot to fight for and things that we can be positive about.

2/
Firstly, we must keep our networks and activism alive. Whilst some were so many of us were not active before 2016 and the U.K. now has the biggest pro European movement in Europe. It’s vital that these non partisan networks are maintained. It’s vital we remember that what.. 3/
Read 13 tweets
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donate.hopenothate.org.uk/page/content/H…
Read 26 tweets
A bit of rather belated analysis of the #GE2019 vote: when you plot the size of Conservative and Labour majorities (in % terms), it is striking how inefficient the Labour vote has become since 2005.
Labour is increasingly piling up votes in its safe seats, whereas the Conservative majorities tend to increase at a fairly incremental rate.
This is interlinked with the dynamics of geographical polarisation that @ProfStoker and I have identified... it also is consistent with Jonathan Rodden's arguments in 'Why Cities Lose' on the disproportionate urban clustering of the vote for left parties.
Read 7 tweets
One day after #GE2019, @guardian let Kenneth Stern (who drafted the #IHRA definition of Antisemitism) say if "[Jared] Kushner or I had been born into a Palestinian family displaced in 1948, we might have a different view of Zionism, & that need not be because we vilify Jews."
Kenneth Stern wrote in @guardian with readers in the #US in mind. He explained that @ZOA_National sees the #IHRA definition as stopping @NationalSJP from calling for ‘#intifada’. But he says @NationalSJP has the right to make “calls” he doesn't like. "That’s called free speech."
Here @BoardofDeputies has told candidates in the #LabourLeader elections to apply the #IHRA definition "with all its examples & clauses", "without qualification". But, as @JVoiceLabour explains, they don't require the #IHRA definition of others. Why not? jewishvoiceforlabour.org.uk/statement/resp…
Read 13 tweets
So pleased for my new #NorthEast near neighbour @DehennaDavison!
A great maiden speech today. Continuing the positive, aspirational, new @Conservatives approach we saw across the #RedWall in #GE2019 - looking forward to hearing the 6 more new north east #MPs maiden speeches ImageImageImageImage
Right to thank the many many people came to help @DehennaDavison - from the amazing @carriesymonds + #Dilyn the dog to former candidate @C_F_Adams to a host of #Yorkshire helpers and the @ToryReformGroup dream team / @NLandTories who both battled the downpours in #Tudhoe Image
Knew @DehennaDavison was going to win when #Scargill Drive in #Tudhoe (former colliery community) was so positive and pro @Conservatives 👍 Image
Read 3 tweets
As I head to leafy Bookham for my first talk on Brexit of the year, it's worth considering whether there's anything new to say, post #GE2019

1/
Largely, the case for change has yet to be made

Yes, there's finally someone with enough institutional power to make choices stick, but no clear sign about what those choices might be

2/
'Get Brexit done' is almost as good a slogan as 'Take back control', but it means almost as little

The suspicion remains that the UK's strategy will centred on getting Brexit out of the headlines, rather than pursuing a particular substantive outcome

3/
Read 7 tweets
We need to talk about blame and responsibility when it comes to #Brexit - from a pro-EU / pro-Remain point of view.
Most of the ongoing soul-searching since #GE2019 has focused on blame - who is to blame for wanting the election in the first place, who is to blame for Remain parties' lousy election result?
Look further back and it is then a question of who was to blame UK side for the poor period of negotiation leading to the Withdrawal Agreement (meaning what was promised in the referendum wasn't delivered).
Read 20 tweets

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