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Ben See Profile picture
@ClimateBen
Aug 28, 2024 • 10 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
BREAKING: climate scientists confirm global crop yields will start to drop dramatically by 2025-2034 🧵
1. Best-case scenario for climate change is now 1.6°C of warming.


1.5°C by 2020-2029 in all economic growth scenarios. 1.6-2.1°C to follow by ~2035.


Dire ~5-50% drop in crop yields by 2030s anticipated.

🧵 newscientist.com/article/244431…
esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/25…
2. A major food systems shock in the coming decades must be anticipated.

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3. Food system transformation..

Industrial agriculture means biodiversity annihilation and extinction.

How many journalists will discuss agroecology and other such alternatives? insideclimatenews.org/news/26082024/…
4. Crop yields 'one of our most important problems'

if we measure global poverty at.. $7.40 per day.. the number of people living under this line has increased dramatically..reaching..4.2 billion people today

ourworldindata.org/crop-yields
dumptheguardian.com/commentisfree/…
5. Projections for 1.5°C of global warming range from 2027 to 2033 with 2025 or 2026 possible.
6. Limiting global warming to 1.5°c would [have] reduce[d] risks to humans by up to 85%

Climate scientists' models project 1.5°C by 2028 or befopre and 2°C by 2046 or perhaps as early as the 2030s.

preventionweb.net/news/limiting-…
7.
8. ' Crop yields .. For people and the planet, it’s one of our most important problems'

~ Our World in Data



ourworldindata.org/crop-yields
9.

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More from @ClimateBen

Ben See Profile picture
Sep 10
Earth's species will suffer 2-2.6°C and rising even in capitalism's most ambitious decarbonization scenario. Scientists anticipate unsurvivable 3-7°C, with geologic periods like the Miocene climatic optimum (MCO) seen as good analogues for our current 21st century climate hell.🧵 The multimethod, multitaxon pCO2 reconstruction presented here indicates that pCO2 was moderately elevated at ~450–550 ppm during the MCO. These results are somewhat higher than most previously published pCO2 records, which generally report pCO2 < 450 ppm (see Foster et al., 2017), but still considerably lower pCO2 than climate modeling requires to reproduce MCO temperatures (Goldner et al., 2014). This indicates that climate sensitivity must have been elevated during the MCO, leading to highly elevated temperatures at moderately elevated pCO2. With 415 ppm measured for the first time in sp...
1/The race is now on to improve our knowledge of the Earth system in order to understand whether.. moderate levels of pCO2 may.. cause a devastating..increase of up to 7°C in the (near?) future, and if so, take action to prevent it. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/20… x.com/ClimateBen/sta…
2. The temperature regime reconstructed for most of the Miocene, ∼5°C–8°C above modern, is equivalent to projected future warming in about a century under unmitigated carbon emissions scenarios.. an important warm-climate analog..
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
x.com/ClimateBen/sta…
Read 7 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Aug 27
COLLAPSE/EXTINCTION: scientists fear global warming of 3.5°C, which wipes out 33-70% of species (IPCC AR4 2007, IPCC AR6 2022), will likely hit by the 2060s give or take a decade or two 🧵
1. IPCC scenario SSP3-7.0 shows 3.5°C by 2080 or from 2062 (not the worst-case scenario). Even a moderate emissions scenario can lead to 3.5°C this century (new research shows 2060s-80s possible).


Species extinct IPCC:
3.5C 40-70% 2007
3C 29%, 4C 39% 2022esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/25…
2. A new pre-print from highly respected climate scientists implies 3.5°C by 2065-77 at current rates of warming. The authors warn this rate could increase or decrease perhaps suggesting 3.5°C by around 2055-2087 rather like IPCC high emissions scenarios.
researchsquare.com/article/rs-607…
Read 5 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Aug 25
BREAKING: scientists say Earth's major systems are undergoing abrupt changes — and soon we'll all feel them 🧵
1. 'prepare for a future of abrupt change.. choices made now will determine whether we face a future of worsening impacts and irreversible change or one of managed resilience to the changes already locked in.' phys.org/news/2025-08-s…
2. Society must now brace for catastrophic impacts.

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Read 7 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Aug 9
Destruction of habitats and wildlife has intensified and accelerated to an almost unimaginable degree during the capitalist era. Scientists say the 40-50% of plant species now facing extinction will be obliterated in a handful of decades. It didn't have to be like this. Rethink. Plants are going extinct up to 350 times faster than the historical norm
1. Capitalism: a 'meteorite'

'previous mass extinctions.. took 10,000s, 100,000s, even millions of years to happen. this is happening so fast, now in just two, three decades..'
google.com/amp/s/www.cbsn…

Recovery: "we most likely won’t be there to see it"..
discovermagazine.com/earth-is-on-th…
2. Current estimates of plant extinctions are, without a doubt, gross underestimates. Extinctions will surpass background rates by 1000s of times over the next 80 years. universityofcalifornia.edu/news/plants-ar…
Read 8 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Aug 7
BREAKING: as tropical forests show increasingly clear signs they are entering a collapse phase scientists warn irreversible mass extinction conditions are on the horizon 🧵
1. rapid warming & collapse

".. warming could continue to accelerate.. even if we reach zero human emissions. We will have fundamentally changed the carbon cycle in a way that can take geological timescales to recover, which has happened in Earth’s past.”scitechdaily.com/mass-extinctio…
2. “There will be a point in the not too distant future when we suddenly see and feel this mass extinction all around us very clearly”

“A key point of extinction crises is that life has always recovered.. However..we most likely won’t be there to see it."
Read 5 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Jul 23
icymi: our coastal cities will be smashed by multi-metre sea level rise within decades Peak global mean temperature, atmospheric CO2, maximum global mean sea level (GMSL), and source(s) of meltwater. Light blue shading indicates uncertainty of GMSL maximum. Red pie charts over Greenland and Antarctica denote fraction (not location) of ice retreat.
The Greenland ice sheet is now losing around 9 billion litres of ice an hour [Geological Survey of Denmark &Greenland]

With the ice sheet at “a tipping point of irreversible melting”, scientists currently expect an unavoidable sea level rise of 1-2 metres.weforum.org/stories/2025/0…
4 to 10 m sea level rise committed in the coming 2000 years, with the majoroty of that in the coming decades/centuries it would appear.
science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…

x.com/climate_ice/st…
Read 4 tweets

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