Ben See Profile picture
Aug 28 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
BREAKING: climate scientists confirm global crop yields will start to drop dramatically by 2025-2034 🧵
1. Best-case scenario for climate change is now 1.6°C of warming.


1.5°C by 2020-2029 in all economic growth scenarios. 1.6-2.1°C to follow by ~2035.


Dire ~5-50% drop in crop yields by 2030s anticipated.

🧵 newscientist.com/article/244431…
esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/25…
2. A major food systems shock in the coming decades must be anticipated.

Thread:
3. Food system transformation..

Industrial agriculture means biodiversity annihilation and extinction.

How many journalists will discuss agroecology and other such alternatives? insideclimatenews.org/news/26082024/…
4. Crop yields 'one of our most important problems'

if we measure global poverty at.. $7.40 per day.. the number of people living under this line has increased dramatically..reaching..4.2 billion people today

ourworldindata.org/crop-yields
dumptheguardian.com/commentisfree/…
5. Projections for 1.5°C of global warming range from 2027 to 2033 with 2025 or 2026 possible.
6. Limiting global warming to 1.5°c would [have] reduce[d] risks to humans by up to 85%

Climate scientists' models project 1.5°C by 2028 or befopre and 2°C by 2046 or perhaps as early as the 2030s.

preventionweb.net/news/limiting-…
8. ' Crop yields .. For people and the planet, it’s one of our most important problems'

~ Our World in Data



ourworldindata.org/crop-yields

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More from @ClimateBen

Sep 16
BREAKING: the majority of climate scientists now expect conditions extreme enough to wipe out 35-70% of Earth's species within decades 🧵
1. An extraordinary 77% of IPCC scientists questioned expect 2.6-5°C of global warming (or more) in the coming 5 to 9 decades.



Conservation biologists say at least half of Earth's species will be wiped out at 3°C.

Thread:
dumptheguardian.com/environment/ar…
2. Abrupt climate change is just one (major) compounding factor in extinction catastrophe. Scientists dreaming of 1.4-1.5°C by 2100 face a new reality. The recently updated best-case scenario 1.6-1.8°C by ~2050 is very unlikely. Expect 1.9-2°C by 2030-2050.nature.com/articles/s4155…
Read 6 tweets
Sep 16
BREAKING: new terrifying best-case global warming scenario of 1.6-1.8°C and falling is based on profoundly speculative assumptions with 95% of scientists actually fully expecting 1.9-2.1°C and rising fast towards 21st century extinction for the majority of Earth's species 🧵
1. Few IPCC experts expect the extraordinary emergency action in the coming years of capitalism required (in theory) to avoid 2.7-3.3°C. They expect 1.9-5°C.

Change this Extinction Economy now while it's still too late to protect species and everyone.

dumptheguardian.com/environment/ar…
2. At least half of all species extinct at around 2.75/3.25°C.

Thread
Read 8 tweets
Sep 14
BREAKING:  horror as scientists confirm cataclysmic global warming of 1.75-2°C by 2030-2050 is unavoidable even in best-case emissions scenarios 🧵
1. "We inevitably face..overshoot" (beyond 1.5°C)


'by.. probably multiple tenths of a degree even under the highest possible ambition'


So in theory with wildly optimistic assumptions best-case 1.7-1.8°C by 2050 (1.9-2.6°C likely).ted.com/talks/johan_ro…
nature.com/articles/s4155…
2. With the consensus best case scenario now realistically ~1.75°C, time to recall the IPCC second best scenario has been shown to have a 66-68% chance of >2°C by 2044-2065 in a major study recognised by mainstream scientists.

So.. 1.75-2.25°C by 2050.

news.stanford.edu/stories/2023/0…
Read 7 tweets
Sep 12
BREAKING: out of control methane emissions are following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s most pessimistic greenhouse gas scenarios implying a cataclysmic global temperature increase of 1.9-2.1°C and rising in the next decade or two 🧵
1/emissions soaring to record highs

trend “cannot continue if we are to maintain a habitable climate

currently no technologies capable of removing gas from atmosphere

researchers found little evidence world is making progress on pledges to cut emissions
euronews.com/green/2024/09/…
2/'The growth in emissions they observed follows the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s most pessimistic greenhouse gas scenarios. This could mean a global temperature increase of more than 3C above pre-industrial times by the end of the century.'
euronews.com/green/2024/09/…
Read 4 tweets
Sep 10
BREAKING: horrific extreme temperatures of 2023/2024 unlikely to be a blip with 1.75-2°C of global warming projected to hammer Earth's species within years 🧵
1. A range of projections show 1.75-2°C as likely to hit by 2030-2043, so in less than one or two decades. Conservative estimate: 2°C by ~2048.

'some combination of forcings or changes in feedbacks may be driving higher global temperatures going forward'

theclimatebrink.com/p/2024s-unusua…
2. Without utterly extraordinary events in the coming years we can anticipate 2°C by 2030-2043.

See James Hansen's comments:
Read 4 tweets
Sep 8
OLD NEWS: mass extinction media journalists stay shamefully silent despite scientists revealing the economy has set up death and destruction for billions as ecosystems collapse and millions of species vital for decent human survival are cruelly annihilated right now in the 2020s
1. nature.. may be at risk of unraveling from deforestation, overfishing, development, and other human activities.. one million species may be pushed to extinction in the next few years, with serious consequences for human beings as well as...'

May 2019

nationalgeographic.com/environment/ar…
2. Biodiversity destruction must be stopped and reversed by 2030 but today's Extinction Economy will just accelerate the annihilation.

Thread:
Read 5 tweets

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