Thread by @clement_molin

In may 2024, Russian 🇷🇺 armed forces created the "North" corps aimed at putting pressure into Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts 🇺🇦.

4 months after, all eyes are on Kursk, while Kharkiv attritional fight continues, which is not a russian defeat.

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️

This is (was) the city of Vovchansk in Kharkiv oblast. In may 2024, a ~50k army crossed the border north of the city of Kharkiv but was stopped in central Vovchansk.

Since that time, around 12 ukrainian brigades and various battalions, worth ~20 or 30k men took position to defend the two axis of progression.

The first one is going to Lyptsi and the second one to Vovchansk.

The initial russian advance surprised many, but no me because there were no fortifications directly on the border.
Since I worked on the ukrainian fortification program, I understood there was no defenses directly on the border like it is the case everywhere, too dangerous.

As you can see on my map, there are, in fact, some fortifications on the border (which are old russian positions).
But Ukraine-Russia border is hundreds kilometers long, you can't keep men in every position.
So the main defensive line is located 5 to 10km from the border.

Thus the ukrainian armed forces couldn't hold the initial russian advance and abadnonned many positions. It was an error.
In fact, there were a few errors : the main line wasn't completed and positions were not occupied by soldiers.

But then, many people said russian objective was to capture Kharkiv city, or at least, to threaten it.

When videos came out, we only saw an infantry force with few to no armoured vehicles and tanks.

Northern corps, named "Sever" is badly equiped. MTLB, T62 and mainly infantry.

So we are here with people lying and assuming big objectives for this corps, like advancing on Kharkiv city or threatening the rear of Kupiansk front.

Then, when russian progress was halted, these same people claimed it was a clear russian defeat to advance to Kharkiv city.

They said Ukraine managed to stop the advance and were showing counterattacks in Vovchansk and Hlyboke.

This narrative is false.

Firstly, the russian corps did not even aimed at reaching Kharkiv. It was created and poorely equiped for one mission : DIVERSION.

Just look at videos, they are advancing with loafs and vans...

I believe they attacked these two places for one main reason : defensive advantage.

Rivers would be used as stop lines while forrest are good covering positions for infantry.
The city of Vochansk is also ideal to settle and hide, while the Ukrainians are trying to take it back.

The other direction is also perfect for defense : high ground, some forests, rivers and lakes, villages and positions facing south because they were dug by the russian army.

Both direction have the same advantage, high ground on the russian side. The next step was to build defenses. Ukraine targeted a few escavators but the work was done :

I mapped some of these new russian trenches :

They are used to hide and to advance to the "meat grinder", Vovchansk.

I told you, this city is disputed since may 2024.

Here is the current frontline. Ukrainian forces regained territory after succesful counter-attacks, but the russians are stil trying to push them out of the northern part of the city.

Russian FABs are raining on small towns and forest plantations around Vovchansk. They can fire these tens of kilometers from there, inside Russia without risking there air assets.

On this front, Russia managed to attract at least 10 brigades from the Donbass and elsewhere, in a place where ukraine is loosing men against poorely trained and equiped russian soldiers.

Vovchansk is an ukrainian forces magnet.

Just look at all the videos @UAControlMap volounteers located in Vovchansk et Hlyboke : it shows how the attritional fight is ongoing there.

With a 50k army, Russia managed to open a new front, attracted a few ukrainian brigades (which would have been useful in the Donbass) and opened the condition for an endless fight in Vovchansk city.

I believe this was the plan and it was successful.

However, Kursk offensive may have changed some things.
Most of the russian reinforcements are coming from Kharkiv front, this could allow ukrainian forces to use less troops into this direction or to try to take back territory all the way the recognized border.