Short 🧵EW in the Kursk Operation

1/n There have been reports of ZSU push at Korenevo, following a successful targeting of bridges and pontoon bridges along the Seym River. Two newly constructed bridges have become targets for the Ukrainian Air Force. (@AndrewPerpetua Map)Image
2/n The offensive itself, taking many international observers by surprise, saw successful advances made by the Ukrainian Armed Forces within the first few hours and days of the operation. Operations in the Kursk area have been intensifying and were likely already taking shape by early June. During the lead-up to the offensive, there was an escalation in activity overall, but particularly in terms of drone strikes - which Andrew and his team documented at the time.Image
3/n Seven strikes were carried out using FPV drones on substations of various sizes, or logistics points for electrical grid maintenance. These attacks occurred between the end of June and a few days before the start of the offensive on Kursk. Image
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4/n The secondary elements that appeared to have been prioritized as targets were both communication facilities and trucks. Most notably, an R416-GM station, used for long-range communication, was destroyed during the offensive’s preparatory phase. This attack is significant because it took place over 20 km from the border and was carried out using a DART drone, which is a winged FPV drone.Image
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5/n This is notable because the announcement of 60 DART drones were delivered to the 92nd Separate Assault Brigade and the 93rd Mechanised Brigade on June 3, a delivery which correlates to the date of the aforementioned strike. Image
6/n This border area had been the target of a deliberate operation designed to assess, equip, and test Russian capabilities. Based on Andrew's data, it is evident that Russia carried out frequent drone strikes and shelling throughout this area, suggesting that both its soldiers and local command at the border were likely aware of an ongoing Ukrainian presence. This further supports the theory that, as in the past, warnings from lower-ranking officers or soldiers were largely ignored prior to Ukraine’s offensive.
7/n These attacks demonstrate how Ukraine countered Russian electronic warfare (EW) both actively and passively. However, this alone does not explain Ukraine’s initial success in deterring the constant threat of FPV Drones. The answer to this question can be found in several visual sources showing the location of where EW systems were systematically deployed. An example of one such EW system of Czech origin has become commonly used in this respect.Image
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8/n From the outset of Ukraine’s Kursk offensive, Russian telegram channels reported its personnel’s first-hand experience about the use and effectiveness of EW jammers in the Kursk area. Jamming was reported to have disrupted the use of both FPV drones and other assets during the first two weeks of the attack. One specific type of jammer mentioned frequently is a dagger-based antenna, which is either dropped by drones or deployed by Special Operations Forces (SOF) to create small corridors for attacking troops. These are also accompanied by other transportable EW systems capable of interfering with higher frequencies - rendering other assets unusable in certain areas of the operations.Image
9/9 These are only part of a large number of indicators that allow us to conclude that the Kursk offensive, which is still ongoing, has seen a level of preparation of a remarkable nature, with a significant presence of EW systems, drones and other platforms. This further demonstrates how important these systems are in an evolving battlefield, especially when deployed in a combined arms operation.Image
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More from @HartreeFock

Aug 27
A new🧵 factories fueling Russia's war machine.
This is part of a long investigation we started at @tochnyi months ago to uncover the network of industries supporting military production beyond the commonly known defence manufacturers. Today we will explore the Krasny Oktyabr metallurgical plant in Volgograd.Image
1/n Since 2009, Russia has invested a large amount of resources into improving its metallurgical production facilities, an industry which stagnated after the fall of the Soviet Union. For the detailed research, here is the article’s link: tochnyi.info/2024/08/on-the…
2/n Krasny Oktyabr was destroyed during the siege of Stalingrad. It was rebuilt and became a major installation during the Cold War, producing millions of tons of steel annually. By 1986, the plant was responsible for 12% of the USSR's high-quality steel output, including 14% of its stainless steel.  The plant is capable of producing over 500 different grades of steel.Image
Read 12 tweets
Aug 22
🧵1/n Optical fibre and FPV drones

I have been reading a lot about wire-guided FPV drones, and despite I share my concern about their increased effectiveness due to their physical strength I am also quite optimistic about their future. Let’s try to see how. Image
2/n David detailed in his article on Forbes, he covered this twice, such methodology, which was discover already many months ago. It created a mixture of emotions among experts and commentators, but it can be seen as a natural response to a problem, EW.

forbes.com/sites/davidham…
3/n As we have consistently reported until March, FPV drones have played a significant role in fire missions on both sides, largely due to the work of Andrew Perpetua. However, both sides have expressed dissatisfaction while simultaneously deploying new EW solutions, yielding different results. From the data we have observed, the Russians, who were theoretically more capable, suffered primarily due to the way their FPV drones were acquired. This left little chance to upgrade their hardware, making them more vulnerable to Ukrainian EW.Image
Read 10 tweets
Jul 23
1/n Since the start of the war in 2022, Russia has been strengthening its military industry and increasing its military budget. An investigation on Russia’s “hidden” factories, places not secret but somehow not advertised by the propaganda. @tochnyi tochnyi.info/2024/07/russia…
@tochnyi 2/n The current level of attrition is consistently high, also thanks to the use of relatively inexpensive but effective drones such as FPV heavy bombers and kamikaze. A staggering number of observed strikes on vehicles, with a peak of 1126 observed in April. Image
@tochnyi 3/n An article from The Economist expresses doubt about Russia's ability to produce enough barrels, estimating that only 100-200 are produced annually. However, this assessment is based on the assumption that Russia has technical and logistical issues.
Read 9 tweets
Jun 29
🧨A short post on Nitrocellulose.

1/7 Cotton is crucial for textiles and producing nitrocellulose, a key ingredient in military propellants. Let’s explore the largest cotton producers and how this links to nitrocellulose production for defence.Image
2/7 🇨🇳China leads the world in cotton production with a production peak in 2022 of 6000 (1000 tonnes), followed by 🇮🇳India and 🇺🇸 the USA. There are also other important producers like Australia, Turkey and Brazil. Check out this chart for a visual comparison of their production volumes.Image
3/7 🧪 But cotton is a critical precursor for producing nitrocellulose, a key component in smokeless powder, and is also crucial for military explosives and propellants. Used in firearms, artillery, rockets, and pyrotechnics, it offers high energy density, controlled combustion, and stability, making it essential for defence and industryImage
Read 6 tweets
Jun 20
Piercing Russian heavy armor

My latest work is now on @tochnyi website, it wouldn't be possible without the support of the entire team, a special mention to @wendy_dyers for his proofreading, and to @clockworkChris for his marvellous graphics.

tochnyi.info/2024/06/pierci…
1/n Introduction
Understanding the impact of FPV drones on tanks in the Ukrainian war is complex due to several factors. Reliable and comprehensive data is essential but currently limited, with most data coming from Andrew Perpetua and his OSINT team, providing valuable but not exhaustive insights.

The evolving FPV drone technology and tactics by Ukrainian and Russian forces add complexity. Each side continuously develops and refines these drones, making it challenging to assess their impact accurately. Different drone models with various capabilities influence their effectiveness against tanks, leading to constant adaptation of strategies in response to drone threats.

Moreover, the quality of visual data, often from video footage, affects the accurate identification and counting of damaged or destroyed tanks. Poor video quality can lead to misidentification or underreporting, further complicating the assessment.
2/n Toll on Russian tank fleet

The totals amounted to 582 tanks damaged, making this the largest category and indicating that most FPV strikes result in damage rather than destruction or abandonment; 86 tanks were found to be abandoned, a smaller but notable portion, and 148 tanks destroyed; showing that while destruction is less common than damage, it is still a significant result.

The general trend indicates an increase in the number of FPV strikes over time, especially from January to March 2024. Damaged tanks consistently represent the majority of strikes each month. The number of destroyed tanks remains relatively steady, while abandoned tanks vary but also show an increase towards the later months.Image
Read 12 tweets
Jun 18
Long 🧵 on drones 1/n

Since the start of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, drones have slowly taken the front pages. Initially, it was the Bayraktar TB2, which brought a drone directly to the front line for the first time in a large-scale combat operation. Image
2/n

Analysts across the entire spectrum, from professional and academic to open-source intelligence, have observed the rise of small commercial surveillance drones for reconnaissance and, increasingly, for more kinetic operations.

For the first time in history, we have seen the successful use of naval drones in the role of direct strike assets.Image
3/n

On the other side, the Russians have strained our belief in modern air defense systems by deploying hundreds of fixed-wing kamikaze drones to saturate the airspace and deplete valuable and scarce missile supplies. Image
Read 8 tweets

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