1/ A chronic shortage of military vehicles has left the Russian army in Ukraine dependent upon civilian vehicles. This is leading to conflict – sometimes with weapons drawn – between Russian troops and military police, who are trying to confiscate the vehicles. ⬇️
2/ Two years of constant artillery and drone attacks have destroyed much of Russia's fleet of military transport vehicles. In their place, volunteers and soldiers themselves have purchased or donated numerous civilian vehicles which are used to transport ammo, supplies and men.
3/ As a result of constant attrition, according to Russian soldiers, a unit which would originally have had five trucks to transport its men now has to rely on around 50 passenger cars. At best, though, it likely only has five or ten, which constantly break down or are destroyed.
4/ Russian troops rely on civilian vehicles, purchased by themselves or donated. However, the military police have been under orders since 2023 to confiscate unregistered vehicles. Until recently this was not enforced, because it would leave the troops without transportation.
5/ Now, however, new leadership in Russia's military police has ordered a crackdown and they are seizing unregistered vehicles – despite the consequences for the troops, who are furious about the decision and have even more reason than usual to detest the military police.
6/ Russia's military police are widely despised by the troops as "cowardly parasites" who harass ordinary soldiers in the rear areas. They are notoriously corrupt, demanding bribes for minor infractions.
7/ According to a Russian milblogger interviewed by Sever.Realii, "Military police always behave like that. They haven’t seen a real war, they can’t even compare in experience with volunteers. They work where it’s almost safe."
8/ "In general, their job is to, for example, catch a drunk soldier before he manages to shoot someone, and then give his commander a dressing down for allowing this to happen."
9/ They impose harsh punishments: as well as imposing fines or demanding bribes, they imprison men in zindans (open-air pits) or make them "hug birches" (tie them to trees) for days. Soldiers require combat orders, known as 'berkas', to go through military police checkpoints.
10/ Andrey, a Russian soldier serving in the occupied part of Ukraine's Zaporizhia region, comments that without one, "[the bastards], for whose sake we’ve gathered here, won’t let him pass [the checkpoint], they’ll give him a slap on the wrist and put him in a pit for ten days."
11/ The crackdown on vehicles is happening without regard for military efficiency, according to the milblogger. It was prompted by soldiers causing traffic accidents in unauthorised civilian vehicles.
12/ "They are military, but the cars are civilian. A soldier is on the payroll, and the army has to be responsible, but the army has no idea about this vehicle.
13/ "The military police sees these situations, but they don't see how the same vehicles carry ammunition – you don't send five boxes of ammunition to the front line on a lorry under drones. And so in their eyes, the military's personal vehicles are a detriment.
14/ "And it is not customary for them to argue with orders, and to put a soldier in a zindan is a tick in the box, just like the cops do in the civilian world."
15/ Andrey, the soldier, points out that "only stupid orders like this are accepted for implementation, but orders to provide the troops with everything they need are not."
16/ "I understand if there were a lot of military vehicles, and we would use all kinds of old Ladas and Mercs to go for a ride with women, but no."
17/ He is angry that the military police pay more attention to Russian soldiers than to the disloyal Ukrainians in occupied cities such as Melitopol, where he says that "normal filtration measures were not carried out there."
18/ "They simply changed the flags, and everyone continued to live as they live. It seems to me that this contradicts the basic concept of security." Andrey says that he experiences "contempt and hatred" from "waiters" – people awaiting liberation by Ukraine.
19/ "Well, for example, I don't get cocky, I don't assert my rights and so on, but I still encounter contempt and hatred. Someone speaks the [Ukrainian] language on principle. This is a clear 'waiter', but what can I do to him, I won't drag him to the FSB for a sideways glance."
20/ Instead, he says, the military police harass ordinary soldiers even to the point of endangering their lives. A month ago, they tried to confiscate the vehicles in which his unit's medical company transports wounded soldiers (known as '300s'). As one of the company explains:
21/ "We have two ‘loaves' [UAZ vans], which we use to transport the 300s. Volunteers from Arkhangelsk gave us these loaves, they just gave them to us, we didn't pay them anything. The staff cars died a long time ago.
22/ "We still have them, but they have to be repaired after every trip, and it's not clear whether they will stop halfway through. New cars are reliable, and on staff cars we go to the city to buy medicines, which we need to replenish quickly.
23/ "And in July, the military police showed up at our door. They said they had orders to take everything, that it was unaccounted for. We sent them away and they left."
24/ The military police returned soon afterwards with a senior officer and a vehicle armed with a machine gun, and demanded the medical vehicles at gunpoint. The soldiers fobbed them off with the story that their commander was away on a mission and would need a written order.
25/ "We said that we would give them everything, but please give us a written order and come back in the evening. They seemed to calm down, and we started thinking and came up with the idea of breaking the vehicles so that they wouldn’t move, and we could easily fix them later.
26/ "In short, we just took out the spark plugs, replaced them with old ones, one by one. Anyway, these guys arrived, but, by the way, without a written order. We said 'okay, take them.' They couldn’t start the vehicles."
27/ The troops say that they are only using civilian vehicles because they lack any army-supplied alternatives. "You understand, we wouldn't need civilian cars if we had our own. Because a regular 'loaf' is not equipped with anything, you can't support it officially,...
28/ ...that is, we buy gasoline ourselves, we repair and assemble everything inside so that we can provide assistance ourselves. The issued staff cars are better equipped and more comfortable, but they have one drawback: they don't drive at all!"
29/ Andrey notes that the Russian army is not replacing its huge losses of vehicles, leaving soldiers stuck. "How many vehicles have we already had destroyed, combat ones I mean? For every ten lost, they replenish us with one. Well, here we are, sitting without transport."
30/ The military police attempted to confiscate his own unit's vehicles – a UAZ and an old Mercedes and Lada purchased from local people. When the military police turned up to confiscate them, one of Andrey's soldiers turned an APC's machine gun on them.
31/ "He said to them: 'If you don't leave now, I will [kill] you. We don't even have to roll out the BTR, I'm going to sit in the turret, turn the cannon round and [shoot] at you.'
32/ "They were stunned, but I don't think they believed him, and he just turned round and went to open the BTR. The MPs jumped into the car and drove away.
33/ "Our daredevil came back, laughing, and I told him: 'Woodpecker [machine gunner], they'll be back with reinforcements right away.'" In the end, the MPs didn't come back, but only filed a complaint against the troops.
34/ A Russian military expert notes the futility of the military police's crackdown: "As for these cars, almost all the passenger cars that are currently in the hands of the Russian military were bought by them with their own money and handed over by volunteers.
35/ "If they all are taken away, the first question, of course, is where to put them, and secondly, let them be ready to hear a report on the failure to complete a combat mission: previously, they used a passenger car for reconnaissance, but now there is no reconnaissance.
36/ Well, of course, in general, such an approach does not really help to raise morale: you do not give us anything, we buy it ourselves, so you take it away!" /end
1/ The world faces a catastrophic cliff-edge shortage of oil due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade in the next four weeks, analysts warn. This will cause a deep recession, fuel rationing, the shutdown of entire industries, and oil prices potentially as high as $370 per barrel. ⬇️
2/ A month ago, JP Morgan published a report highlighting that the last oil shipments from the Persian Gulf countries would be delivered by 20th April. That date has come and gone, and oil shipments via the Strait of Hormuz have not resumed.
3/ Limited amounts of Gulf oil have continued to be pumped via pipelines to ports on the Red Sea and Arabian Sea. However, instead of producing enough oil supply to meet global demand, the world has been relying on emergency stockpiles.
1/ Russia faces being surrounded by Europe's mightiest power - the United Kingdom. In a commentary that highlights Russian nationalists' peculiar obsession with Britain, a warblogger predicts doom unless a military alliance is formed with China, North Korea, and Iran. ⬇️
2/ 'Tungsten' writes:
""Azerbaijan, right next door, is beginning joint production with Ukraine of anti-drone systems, FPV drones, and naval unmanned aerial vehicles.
Britain's southern thrust is on our North Caucasus through Armenia."
3/ "Norway, Denmark, and Sweden, together with Ukraine, will begin producing air defence systems and equipment for combat operations in the Arctic and North Atlantic, along the border with Russia, starting in June of this year.
1/ Russian soldiers in the Kherson region complain that they've been forbidden to shoot down Ukrainian drones. This may be related to Russians elsewhere shooting down their own drones, sticking swastikas on the wings, and claiming they're Ukrainian. ⬇️
2/ A soldier writes to the 'Svarschiki' Telegram channel:
"Hello, I’m from the Kherson direction. Over us, the asshole fart-planes constantly fly by, their wings roam completely freely, and at night the Bony One [Death] does whatever the hell it wants…"
3/ "Three months ago we proposed to the command the idea of air defence against airplane-type drones and training the crews at the training ground.
1/ There will never be a better time than now to attack Europe, says a prominent Russian warblogger. Alexey Zhivov says that victory in Ukraine is slipping away, so Russia needs to act like Iran and attack all the facilities in the EU that are being used to help Ukraine. ⬇️
2/ Zhivov calls 2026 "A Window of Opportunity, or Why Ukraine's Allies Need to Be Attacked Now." He envisages Russia carrying out Europe-wide missile attacks against factories and bases which are supporting Ukraine's war effort, while relying on Trump not helping Europe:
3/ "King Charles of Great Britain's visit to the United States and his address to Congress demonstrated that Trump has lost influence over the Ukrainian peace process since November. With the Republicans' defeat [in November], Trump will finally "wash his hands of the situation."
1/ Russians are increasingly worried that they face a repeat of one of the greatest traumas of their recent history: the loss of their savings, as last happened in the economic crisis of the 1990s. Russian commentators are aghast at the prospect. ⬇️
2/ Central bank officials and politicians in Russia have recently been floating the possibility that, due to Russia's worsening budget deficit caused by sanctions and the war in Ukraine, the government may confiscate deposits above a certain amount and issue credit notes instead.
3/ 'Troika' is one of many commentators on Telegram who is reacting strongly to this prospect:
"The process of withdrawing 67 trillion rubles in deposits in exchange for toilet paper has begun."
1/ The Russian government's lackdaisical response to Ukrainian drone strikes on Tuapse, which have caused an environmental disaster, has caused growing anger among Russian commentators. They foresee "the beginning of a major logistical collapse." ⬇️
2/ A scathing commentary on the 'Federation Towers' Telegram channel ('Towers' is a euphemism for the Kremlin's factions) blames the increasingly disastrous situation in Tuapse and elsewhere on official buck-passing, corruption, cover-ups, and a reluctance to take responsibility:
3/ "Burning oil on the streets of Tuapse and ten thousand square meters of fuel oil in the Black Sea are more than just an environmental disaster. They are the direct cost of bureaucratic negligence and the desire to profit from the budget.