Ukraine's OpSec in planning the Kursk operation has been spectacular. WSJ obtained new details of the operation:
CinC Syrskyi gathered senior officers for a secret meeting in late July where he disclosed an audacious plan to revive the country’s flagging war effort. 1/10⬇️
Syrskiy had evidently drawn conclusions from Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive during the summer of 2023, when Ukraine consulted with the U.S. and other Western partners, deployed newly formed brigades and telegraphed its plans with videos and public comments. 2/10
Only a small number of senior officers took part in the meetings, led by Syrskiy, to thrash out detailed plans for the incursion. Syrskiy tapped battle-hardened units, such as the 80th and 82nd Air Assault Brigades, to lead the incursion and didn’t inform the U.S. of plans. 3/10
“The strong point of Syrskiy is that he is a general who can act unusually, suddenly, unexpectedly for the enemy" Serhiy Cherevatiy, Syrskiy’s former communications adviser. “He knows we don’t have parity and can’t go head-to-head, so he uses cunning and any advantage we have.”
Before Syrskiy’s July meeting with senior officers from units selected for the operation, troops from the 61st Brigade had spent months training in the east for what officers assumed would be another defensive engagement. 5/10
Even after the general’s disclosure that they would be going into Russia, Kholodkevych, the brigade’s chief of staff, thought it might simply be a bluff, meant to deceive the Russians. 6/10
The transfer of the 61st Brigade from the east was accompanied by a disinformation campaign indicating they were headed for Vovchansk, a northern city under assault since May, when Russia launched its own cross-border incursion. 7/10
Ukraine is using new tactics and equipment to gain an upper hand where Russian defenses are weaker, including using small explosive drones to strike down helicopters and Russian surveillance drones. 8/10
The commander of a drone unit, call sign Aristarkh, said that was allowing Ukrainian artillery to move more freely and hit more targets as the threat of discovery is lower. 9/10
Aristarkh’s teams operate strike drones with a range of 30 miles that can drop aerial bombs on high-value targets such as artillery guns. 10/10
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A powerful open letter from President Zelenskyy to Putin:
When you came to power in Russia more than 26 years ago, many people in Ukraine viewed you positively. That is how it was. But that is now in the past. 1/19
Now, the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians view it positively that our long-range drones paid a visit to the opening of your forum in St. Petersburg, covering a distance of more than 1,000 kms. As you know very well, that distance is not the limit of our capabilities. 2/19
For 26 years, your time in power has completely changed the agenda of relations between Ukraine and Russia. From discussions about trade and other civilian matters, our nations have moved to talking almost exclusively about strikes and losses. 3/19
General Biletksyi, Commander of Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps:
Russia’s winter campaign was largely unsuccessful, and its spring campaign has also failed to achieve its objectives.
A turning point is taking place at both the tactical and operational levels. 1/10
There are certainly many factors [why Ukraine is in the best position since the 2022 counteroffensive].
One of the key indicators is territorial gains, which reflect the capabilities of both armies. 2/10
At the very least, it can be said that those capabilities have now reached a relative balance. In many respects, Russia is increasingly facing a stalemate on the battlefield. 3/10
General Budanov, Head of Ukraine's Presidential Office:
The fact that Putin is worried about his life is definitely true. There are certain reasons why he feels that way. A lot of it may be exaggerated, but ultimately people of his type tend to live with similar fears. 1/10
There are quite serious and intelligent people within the [Kremlin] system who are capable of analyzing what is happening. They can clearly see the trajectory of events and understand that regression and decline are visible in many areas. 2/10
Such developments can be tolerated for a certain period of time, but in the long run they do not lead to anything good, and that itself becomes a threat. The emergence of signs of systemic instability is what they are truly afraid of. 3/10
The overall dynamics of the war are gradually shifting in Ukraine’s favor compared to previous months. The situation for Ukraine is markedly better than it was last year. 1/9
A notable recent development is that Kyiv has intensified its mid-range strike campaign against Russian logistics at an operational depth of 18 to 65 miles inside occupied territories, such as in southeastern Ukraine. 2/9
Ukraine’s forces have also stepped up frontline operations to increase their elimination of Russian troops, while expanding their deep- and mid-range strike campaigns to pressure the Russian economy and disrupt logistics in the operational rear. 3/9
General Biletskyi, Commander of Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps:
The next six are the most critical.
Four or five months into this year, it's much more likely that the Russians will get exhausted before the Ukrainian problems come to a breaking point. 1/8
If Ukraine's military can build and maintain momentum over several months, it can gain the initiative along the frontline and push Russia to abandon its designs on the last part of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine that it does not yet occupy. 2/8
We need to define those directions where we can improve our positions, take some strategic points, and then speak with the Russians from a position of strength - not weakness - about a truly stable truce. From a military point of view, this is realistic. 3/8
General Zaluzhnyi, former Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces:
What is modern war? The era of extremely expensive precision-guided weapons, which were the true game changers of the twentieth century, has been replaced by weapons of attrition. 1/14
These are cheap, mass-produced, yet highly accurate weapons that rapidly exhaust expensive weapons systems — the very systems upon which NATO doctrine is largely built. These weapons of attrition continue to evolve systematically and effectively. 2/14
If someone thinks these are simply drones that can quickly be purchased for an army, then they are deeply mistaken. By 2026, drones are increasingly becoming merely the final instrument of a broader technological system. 3/14