Ukraine's OpSec in planning the Kursk operation has been spectacular. WSJ obtained new details of the operation:
CinC Syrskyi gathered senior officers for a secret meeting in late July where he disclosed an audacious plan to revive the country’s flagging war effort. 1/10⬇️
Syrskiy had evidently drawn conclusions from Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive during the summer of 2023, when Ukraine consulted with the U.S. and other Western partners, deployed newly formed brigades and telegraphed its plans with videos and public comments. 2/10
Only a small number of senior officers took part in the meetings, led by Syrskiy, to thrash out detailed plans for the incursion. Syrskiy tapped battle-hardened units, such as the 80th and 82nd Air Assault Brigades, to lead the incursion and didn’t inform the U.S. of plans. 3/10
“The strong point of Syrskiy is that he is a general who can act unusually, suddenly, unexpectedly for the enemy" Serhiy Cherevatiy, Syrskiy’s former communications adviser. “He knows we don’t have parity and can’t go head-to-head, so he uses cunning and any advantage we have.”
Before Syrskiy’s July meeting with senior officers from units selected for the operation, troops from the 61st Brigade had spent months training in the east for what officers assumed would be another defensive engagement. 5/10
Even after the general’s disclosure that they would be going into Russia, Kholodkevych, the brigade’s chief of staff, thought it might simply be a bluff, meant to deceive the Russians. 6/10
The transfer of the 61st Brigade from the east was accompanied by a disinformation campaign indicating they were headed for Vovchansk, a northern city under assault since May, when Russia launched its own cross-border incursion. 7/10
Ukraine is using new tactics and equipment to gain an upper hand where Russian defenses are weaker, including using small explosive drones to strike down helicopters and Russian surveillance drones. 8/10
The commander of a drone unit, call sign Aristarkh, said that was allowing Ukrainian artillery to move more freely and hit more targets as the threat of discovery is lower. 9/10
Aristarkh’s teams operate strike drones with a range of 30 miles that can drop aerial bombs on high-value targets such as artillery guns. 10/10
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General Andriy Biletsky, Commander of Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps:
Peace, in practical terms, means forcing Russia into a strategic stalemate — a dead end in which further advances are either impossible or achievable only at completely unacceptable losses. 1/14
Only then does it make sense for them to sit down at the negotiating table.
if the winter is endured and Russian advances are fully halted in the spring, making it evident that Moscow’s objectives in the Donbas are unattainable, the situation would change fundamentally. 2/14
Should it become clear that even 2026 is unrealistic for achieving these aims, genuine and serious incentives for the Russian leadership to enter negotiations are likely to emerge. 3/14
The active front line stretches about 1,200 km; the kill zone extends 15–20 km in depth.
Enemy strength is around 712,000 personnel, but casualty levels exceed Russia’s ability to replenish forces. 1/6
Kupiansk: Russian diversionary groups of up to 40–50 fighters remain in the city. Russia is actively using fiber-optic drones at distances of 30 km and beyond.
In Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, measures are underway to improve the tactical positions of Ukrainian forces. 2/6
Work continues to increase the effectiveness of drones in air defense. Plans include redistributing functions between surface-to-air missile forces and a new branch of forces responsible for protecting critical infrastructure. 3/6
The Russian economy has entered one of its weakest years in 2026 since the launch of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. 1/12
Russia’s energy revenues fell by about one-fifth last year compared with 2024. High interest rates and a heavy debt burden are squeezing corporate profitability, pushing up the number of financially distressed firms, while lower oil prices and the absence of meaningful growth are further undermining budget revenues. 2/12
As Russian businesses were still adjusting to a VAT hike, officials quickly turned to raising new and existing taxes to patch a budget gap made worse by the collapse in oil and gas revenues in early 2026. 3/12
Ukraine’s strategy in 2026 is largely built around holding existing front lines while pursuing a sustained campaign of exhaustion against Russian manpower and the Russian economy. 1/15
As President Zelenskyy and the new Defense Minister Fedorov have stated, Ukraine’s target is to inflict up to 50,000 Russian troop casualties per month. In December 2025, Ukrainian forces eliminated approximately 35,000 Russian soldiers. 2/15
If the figures are accurate, Ukraine has significantly increased its kill rate since early 2025. According to the Ministry of Digital Transformation, more than 20,000 Russian soldiers per month were verified as killed or severely wounded at the beginning of 2025. 3/15
I believe the Russian strategy is founded on three main pillars: offensive operations, negotiations and terrorizing Ukrainian civilians.
Negotiations: there are several reasons for the Kremlin to engage in peace talks. 1/15
First of all, Moscow intends to evade the imposition of additional sanctions or stricter enforcement by the West, as well as to delay the provision of advanced weaponry, especially long-range capabilities that Ukraine desperately needs. 2/15
Against the backdrop of strained U.S.–Europe relations, the Kremlin sees an opportunity to further sow transatlantic divisions. 3/ 15
Profound insights from Oleh Luhovskyi, Deputy Chief of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service:
The Kremlin’s top leadership is not prepared for genuine negotiations to end the war and is instead pursuing a strategy of deliberate delay. 1/10
Moscow believes that sustained offensive operations at the front and blackouts in the rear can break Ukraine and force it to accept Russia’s terms.
We distinguish two main areas of assistance from China. 2/10
The first is economic support. China has become Russia’s key trading partner, with Russia growing critically dependent on exports of oil, gas, and metals, as well as on imports of machine tools, UAV components, and pharmaceuticals. 3/10