Ukraine's OpSec in planning the Kursk operation has been spectacular. WSJ obtained new details of the operation:
CinC Syrskyi gathered senior officers for a secret meeting in late July where he disclosed an audacious plan to revive the country’s flagging war effort. 1/10⬇️
Syrskiy had evidently drawn conclusions from Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive during the summer of 2023, when Ukraine consulted with the U.S. and other Western partners, deployed newly formed brigades and telegraphed its plans with videos and public comments. 2/10
Only a small number of senior officers took part in the meetings, led by Syrskiy, to thrash out detailed plans for the incursion. Syrskiy tapped battle-hardened units, such as the 80th and 82nd Air Assault Brigades, to lead the incursion and didn’t inform the U.S. of plans. 3/10
“The strong point of Syrskiy is that he is a general who can act unusually, suddenly, unexpectedly for the enemy" Serhiy Cherevatiy, Syrskiy’s former communications adviser. “He knows we don’t have parity and can’t go head-to-head, so he uses cunning and any advantage we have.”
Before Syrskiy’s July meeting with senior officers from units selected for the operation, troops from the 61st Brigade had spent months training in the east for what officers assumed would be another defensive engagement. 5/10
Even after the general’s disclosure that they would be going into Russia, Kholodkevych, the brigade’s chief of staff, thought it might simply be a bluff, meant to deceive the Russians. 6/10
The transfer of the 61st Brigade from the east was accompanied by a disinformation campaign indicating they were headed for Vovchansk, a northern city under assault since May, when Russia launched its own cross-border incursion. 7/10
Ukraine is using new tactics and equipment to gain an upper hand where Russian defenses are weaker, including using small explosive drones to strike down helicopters and Russian surveillance drones. 8/10
The commander of a drone unit, call sign Aristarkh, said that was allowing Ukrainian artillery to move more freely and hit more targets as the threat of discovery is lower. 9/10
Aristarkh’s teams operate strike drones with a range of 30 miles that can drop aerial bombs on high-value targets such as artillery guns. 10/10
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Profound insights by Robert Brovdi, Commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces:
Today, the exchange rate in tactical combat exceeds 100:1. One dollar invested in drones translates into more than $100 in Russian losses. 1/15
USF spend approximately $40 million per month on drones while inflicting around $4 billion in damage on the enemy — a ratio of roughly 1:100. Over a 10-month period, the cost of eliminating a single Russian infantryman is estimated at about $882. 2/15
In 10 months, USF has surpassed 85,000 confirmed enemy personnel eliminated. It is a significant portion of the enemy’s army, destroyed using systems made of plastic and metal costing from $300 to a few thousand dollars. 3/15
General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and current Ambassador to the UK:
Due to scientific and technological progress, it has become impossible, regardless of what others may claim, to carry out operational-level tasks. 1/12
An operational task is not a fight for two houses or even for a small town over the course of a year. Operational execution means achieving large-scale results within a short period of time, advancing 150, 200, even 250 kilometers. 2/12
Today, that is no longer possible. Because of technological developments, such outcomes are effectively unattainable. 3/12
Very telling remarks from Elvira Nabiullina, Russia's Central Bank Governor:
We have truly never, in the history of modern Russia, lived with such a shortage of labor until now. 1/6
We have never had anything like this before, and it is affecting the entire economic situation as well as our decisions. 2/6
The phenomenon has become abnormal for the current economic cycle. The labor shortage is directly affecting economic indicators and is a key factor the regulator takes into account when making decisions on the key interest rate and other monetary policy measures. 3/6
Interesting remarks by senior Western military leaders on the Russia–Ukraine war at the Kyiv Security Forum:
Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, Chair of the NATO Military Committee:
Russia has not achieved a quick victory, in fact, no victory at all, and this is important. 1/18
Ukraine has preserved its sovereignty, and this is a powerful example of adaptability. In the West, we are learning a great deal, learning about drones, distributed capabilities, and resilience. 2/18
Have we truly awakened? I would say yes, we have. Are we working on it? I believe the West is on the right path, with significant achievements. 3/18
The red line is straightforward and widely understood. First, nothing will be recognized. That will not happen, regardless of any pressure or attempts to force it. 1/10
As for Donbas, a solution will be found that, above all, serves Ukraine’s interests, because it is Ukrainian land, and no one has the right to trade it. No one in Ukraine, I believe, would agree to recognize the loss of even a millimeter of our territory. 2/10
A new technological leap is required, particularly in artificial intelligence and advanced signal transmission and control systems. With current technologies, both sides appear to be approaching their operational limits. 3/10