Thread by @WarintheFuture

I have posted my weekly update with events in #Ukraine, Russia, and the Pacific theatre, as well as my recommended readings. Some key points in the thread below. (Image: @DefenceU) 1/11 🧵

2/ In Russia, Ukraine’s Kursk campaign continues although advances in the past week have been fewer than in the initial part of their post-break through exploitation operations. Russia’s response has gathered momentum.

3/ While there have been some advances, the Ukrainian incursion appears to have reached - or is close to reaching - the ‘limit of exploitation’ that I discussed in this articleback on 12 August. In that piece, I examined what Ukraine’s options were once that occured. These include defending all terrain seized in Kursk, selecting defendable terrain and withdrawing into that, and withdrawing back into Ukraine altogether. It appears that the second option is most likely at this point.

4/ The real question is this: how does Ukraine ensure this military advance and seizure of Russian territory results in political and strategic advantage? While there is an argument that the offensive has seized the initiaitve for Ukraine and changed the status quo of the war, given the tradeoffs they have had to make in defending in the Donbas, the political and strategic returns on the Kursk offensive are yet to fully materialise. (Image: @UAControlMap)

5/ This week, debate also continued over whether the U.S. would change its policy on the use of its weapons for long-range strikes inside Russia. One observation of the situation, made by the Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis was that “Russian planes are better protected by Western guarantees than Ukrainian civilians.”

6/ While Ukraine seeks to change American policy on the use of long-range strike weapons in Russia, they have continued to develop indigenous solutions to attack a variety of targets in Russia. President Zelenskyy revealed this week that Ukraine has developed its own ballistic missile which has now been successfully tested. Earlier this month he also unveiled a long-range strike missile, which is named the Palianytsia.

7/ In Ukraine, two key developments are worth noting. First, the news on the ground in eastern Ukraine is not good. The Russians continue to grind out their advance towards the regional centre of Pokrovsk. While the rate of advance is nowhere near as impressive as Ukraine’s rate of advance in the first week of its Kursk campaign, the Russians are nonetheless now within striking distance of the city.

8/ Russia also conducted a massive aerial assault against Ukrainian targets this week. Employing 127 missiles and 109 attack drones, the strike hit targets in multiple locations throughout Ukraine and multiple people. Russia followed up this massive aerial attack 24 hours later with a smaller attack using 60 drones and 5 missiles, and a third attack on the 29th of August.

9/ The Donbas remains Russia’s main effort overall. This is not just a military orientation. The Russian Donbas campaign, along with the air and missile attacks against Ukrainian infrastructure, is a political signal from Putin that he is far more committed to hurting Ukraine and its citizens, and achieving his strategic goal of destroying Ukrainian sovereignty, than he is in defending his own people and protecting Russia’s sovereignty.

10/ Finally, this week President Zelenskyy indicated that
#Ukraine did indeed have a ‘victory plan’ and that he would be briefing the plan to President Biden next month. Developing a viable ‘theory of victory’ is harder than many assume. It must balance domestic and international political concerns, as well as resourcing, influence operations by the enemy and an array of other factors.

11/ was about these issues, updates from the Pacific theatre and of course, my top 5 weekly reads, at my latest edition of The Big Five. End. mickryan.substack.com/p/the-big-five…