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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Sep 1 • 8 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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It appears the Ukrainian Kusk incursion has been accompanied by a new Security Service of Ukraine fixed wing FPV drone called the Gray Widow-1 that has a range of 50 km to stop Russian road & rail traffic.

AFU's Cut Rate Lancet in Kursk🧵
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The twin engine Gray Widow-2 was shown in the same article.

It is unclear what the range/payload of the FPV/loitering munition will be, but something significantly over 52 km is a good guess.

2/
 mil.in.ua/en/news/a-batc…
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The video of the Gray Widow-1 operations make clear it is now in service.

It's an easy to use munition that is logistically simpler to move and set up than a 60mm mortar and outranges a M109A6 155mm/L39 Cal gun firing an Excalibur GPS guided shell.

3/
This may be the FPV drone that Russia has complained about vociferously as having severed the E-38 highway connecting Kursk City with Rylsk.

4/
A stop capture from the video shows Gray Widow-1 also comes with an explosively formed penetrator warhead option.

No pre-1979 tank or AFV design can survive such a top attack.

5/

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A 52 km range from Ukraine's frontline positions means electric rail and electrical grid power sub stations between Lgov to Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk & Oryol are in range and severable at Ukraine's will.

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If the Gray Widow-2 has a 70 km(+) range, as is likely. Then all road & rail links into Kursk proper are now under AFU's drone interdiction footprint.

That logistical reality will utterly unhing all modes of Russian ground lines of communications going into Donbas.😈

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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 31
Bwa-Ha-Ha-ha-ha...

I've seen pro-Russian trolls waving this IMF freak flag after one of my posts pointing out the history of how Russian agricultural sector collapse precedes a bigger economic collapse.

Let's look at the official Russian numbers, courtesy of Joe Bloggs.
1/
This is a spreadsheet comparing the hard numbers of US versus Russian economic growth of Jan 2018 - Dec 2023.

BLUF:

The US economy grew more.

2/
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This spreadsheet is a comparison of economic purchasing power of the Russian economy over time given the ruble's decline in value in the world economy in terms of the US dollar.

BLUF:

Russian world purchasing power fell 16% from Dec. 2017 to Dec 2023.
3/ Image
Read 10 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 31
This is an English translation 🧵of a Russian language article describing the RuAF "final 10 km to the front line" motor transport logistics made up of donated and stolen civilian motor transport.

RuAF Mafia logistics🧵
1/
The Front-Line troops and Russian Army MP's are now drawing guns on one another as the Russian MP's latest leader in occupied Ukraine is trying to enforce a year-old order to confiscate "Non-standard" motor transport from the front-line troops.

2/
Culturally, this 2024 Russian wartime behavior mirrors that of the Soviet state in late 1941-early 1942 period as described in "The Soviet Home Front, 1941-1945: A Social and Economic History of the USSR in World War II" by John Barber & Mark Harrison.

3/
 amazon.com/Soviet-Home-Fr…
Read 10 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 29
We see videos like this and there are still Western ground forces officers' denying that FPV's drones are a major battlefield threat to tanks.

The ability to steer an overmatching shaped charge to the weakest armor points on a tank requires a new approach to tank design.
1/
FYI, the highest US production rate for the M-1 Abrams at the height of the Cold War was 70 a month, 840 a year.

Pre-1979 tank designs were not built for top attack protection against major caliber shaped charge attacks FPV's deliver.

And it shows⬇️

2/
Pimping out pre-1979 tank designs are a semi-useful adaptation that are better than WW2 sandbags.

However, catastrophic top attack loss rates of over 100 tanks a month are not sustainable by anyone.

Russia lost 122 tanks in April 2024.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 28
This is going to be my third 🧵on the AFU's Palyanitsa one way attack (OWA) Drone and the latest information on its cluster munitions payload per the briefing from the "Reporting from Ukraine" YouTube channel.

Palyanitsa Payload/Success Analysis🧵

1/
In the first Palyanitsa thread I did a cost effectiveness analysis at a $300K price point for "American procurement realistic" numbers.

The actual Ukrainian price point of a Palyanitsa is $40K.

That's 75 for the price of one JASSM.

2/
The jet powered Palyanitsa has a speed of ~300 knots indicated.

This makes it a very difficult target for machine guns or 23mm autocannon's but still too cheap for most missiles to down.

3/
Read 18 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 25
What the Palyanytsia drone-missile brings that other Ukrainian OWA drones lack is _SPEED_.

They are moving at better than 300 knots indicated, compared to about 100 knots for a propeller OWA drone.

AFU Jet OWA Drone impact🧵
1/
In 30 minutes, a propeller OWA drone reaches 92 km versus 277.8 km for a Palyanytsia drone-missile.

This makes a huge difference for the VKS scrambling jets to avoid Ukrainian drone attacks.

2/
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While Russian VKS jets have moved back out of the 300 km ATACMS range.

VKS Attack helicopter forward area refueling points cannot.

This also complicates VKS attempts to shuttle bomb through forward air fields.


3/en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shuttle_b…
Read 5 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 25
This Ukrainian drone tactic of trailing Russian drones home is what the Imperial Japanese Kamikaze corps did to US Navy air strikes returning to their carriers in 1944-1945.

WW2 Kamikaze tactics, 2024 drone edition🧵
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This 2020 USNI article details some of those Imperial Japanese 'follow the enemy home' Kamikaze tactics in WW2.

2/
 usni.org/magazines/nava…
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The Imperial Japanese Kamikaze's also doxed and spoofed WW2 US Navy radars and associated identification friend or foe by staying close to USN planes in the last 18 months of WW2.

Drones are seeing these tactics repeated 80 years later.

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Read 4 tweets

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