Andrew A. Michta Profile picture
Sep 1 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
🧵On this day in 1939, exactly 85 years ago, Nazi Germany invaded Poland. Some two weeks later Soviet Russia also attacked it from the East. The Poles fought bravely but were overwhelmed. France and Britain, Poland’s allies, declared war on Germany but did nothing to assist. 1/6
The German/Russian invasion of Poland started World War II-a war that cost millions upon millions of lives, leveled cities, caused untold suffering and when it was all said and done left Germany occupied and divided and all of Eastern Europe enslaved under Soviet communism. 2/6
Volumes have been written about the causes and consequences of WWII. To me there are two key lessons: (1) national security is the irreducible function of the state. In the end nothing can replace your own military readiness and your societal resilience—no treaty, no paper. 3/6
And (2) that appeasement in the face of aggression will always exact a higher price—maybe not right away, maybe in a year or two, but it always will. France and Britain appeased Germany in the 1930s, they abandoned Poland in 1939. Soon after they paid that higher price. 4/6
Today those lessons of 1939 are again as true as they have always been. And they apply not only to @NATO flank countries threatened once again with Russian aggressions. They apply to all European allies, and yes also to the United States. We need to remember them and learn. 5/6
WWII happened in part because democracies tried to appease predatory states to avoid facing up to the danger, hoping against hope that once concessions have been made, peace would be preserved. Those who believed it then were wrong. Those who think that now, are wrong as well.6/6

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More from @andrewmichta

Aug 23
🧵I have written repeatedly about the threat the "Axis of Dictatorships" (Russia, China, Iran and North Korea) poses to the United States and its allies in multiple theaters. I'm back from Europe some 11 months now and I worry about the lack of urgency in DC on this issue. 1/6
I submit that the world is today more volatile than at any point since the end of the Cold War. The ongoing realignment by smaller powers we see today is laying the foundations for what are likely to become wartime coalitions. The old verities of power politics are back. 2/6
I also submit that the last 30 years of overseas contingency operations, GWOT, etc. have not only shrunk and reformatted the US military, but also reduced our defense industrial base and that of our allies to a point where we lack the capacity to produce at speed and scale. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
Aug 10
🧵#Ukraine’s successful military raid into the #Kursk region has stunned the Russians and, equally, all the nay-sayers among armchair strategists in the West. Regardless how this operation ends, it’s already a major win for Ukraine. And there are lessons here for the West.1/5
First, let’s continue to arm #Ukraine and continue to support it politically and economically. Second, we need to stop micromanaging what happens on the battlefield. The Ukrainian military just demonstrated that they know how to fight and how to strike Russia where it hurts. 2/5
Third, we need a new approach that draws on how we supported anti-Soviet resistance in Afghanistan 1979-1989. It was US military aid that helped the Afghan resistance deal a decisive blow to the Soviet empire—the USSR disintegrated two years after its humiliating withdrawal. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Jul 21
🧵The debate on US policy towards #Ukraine has accelerated in recent days. It is striking how pessimistic the commentary has been of late, especially compared to the starry-eyed enthusiasm of the West's response in the early stages of the war. It will get worse, I'm afraid.1/9
We're close to the point of no return when it comes to @NATO articulating a clear strategy of victory in #Ukraine. Our national security wonks count tanks and bullets, rather than looking at geopolitics as well as the cultural and temporal dimensions of war. Time to redirect.2/9
For the past 2.5 years we have been paralyzed by our preoccupation with escalation management, failing to articulate a clear plan for #Russia's defeat in #Ukraine.
Instead, we substituted "Russia can't win; Ukraine can't lose" bromides for clear-eyed strategic thinking. 3/9
Read 9 tweets
Jul 19
🧵A few thoughts as I cool my heals at the Athens airport due to a network-wide outage. Here we go: It’s about our crisis of basic competence across the West. I’m generalizing for sure, but consider the post-Cold War 30yrs. First, look at the results of our economic policy. 1/6
The so-called “globalization” has led to unprecedented de-industrialization in the US (and increasingly across Europe) and has resulted in the shrinking of our middle class and increased political instability across the board. It all but destroyed our manufacturing base. 2/6
We affected a technology transfer to China and allowed Russia to selectively modernize its post-Soviet weapons system so that it poses a credible threat to our military. We also seem unable craft strategies to deliver effective outcomes—think the last 20 years of warfare. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
Jun 26
🧵A few observations about where we are relative to the Axis of Dictatorships (#Russia, #China, #Iran and #NorthKorea) more than two years after Russia's second invasion of #Ukraine. Are the US & Europe rearming/rebuilding our forces and defense industries at speed and scale?1/6
Where is @NATO when it comes to rearmament relative to what our enemies are doing? The news is troubling, although some progress has been made. Still, a number of allies, especially those not on the Eastern flank, appear unable (unwilling?) to make the requisite investments. 2/6
Reportedly, #Russia is producing approx. 250,000 artillery shells per month, or about 3 million a year; the US and Europe have the capacity to produce about 1.2 million munitions annually (almost three times less). Bottom line: Russia is running a wartime economy; we aren't. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
Jun 17
🧵I’ve read comparisons of our current security predicament to what happened in the late 1930s. There are indeed compelling similarities: Much like before WWII when Germany and Japan positioned themselves to attack, we have two powers, Russia and China, gearing up for war.1/8
Also, much like before WWII most of Europe is daydreaming that a “deal” with #Russia is possible, while the US is not ready for war and turning isolationist. But those comparisons are misleading. I submit that we are already in an early stage of a system-transforming war. 2/8
I’m tired of monikers such as “great power competition,” “strategic competition.”or “hybrid war” for IMO these are used to avoid the harsh reality of what’s happening. Talking this way allows political leaders across the West to avoid facing the harsh reality of where we are.3/8
Read 8 tweets

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