Thread by @emilkastehelmi

Recent developments on the eastern front are indicating serious issues in the Ukrainian ability to control the Russian offensive. The Pokrovsk front has the potential to turn into a larger crisis.

In this thread I'll analyze the situation and the reasons behind it. 1/🧵

Russia is focusing its attacks on two directions in eastern Ukraine: Pokrovsk and Toretsk. Recently, Russian forces have made advances in both areas, particularly in Pokrovsk.

In the last two to three weeks, the situation has been deteriorating. 2/

Pokrovsk, a mid-sized city of about 60,000 people has been a crucial logistics hub throughout the war, as it’s located at the intersection of rail and road networks. Together with the nearby town of Myrnohrad they form an urban area with over 100,000 pre-war residents. 3/

Now, Pokrovsk is under serious threat. Russian forces are 10 kilometers away, forcing the closure of some key roads and initiating civilian evacuations. As Russian artillery and drones move closer, the city becomes increasingly difficult for Ukrainian forces to operate in. 4/

The narrow salient has expanded dangerously over the summer, especially in August. Villages are now falling almost daily.

Recently, Russia took Novohrodivka, a town of ~14 000 people, in less than a week. Usually capturing such towns has taken months, even years. 5/

Simply put, the Ukrainian defenders don’t seem to be in full control of the situation. Ukrainian sources are speaking about multiple simultaneous issues, such as lack of manpower and ammo, problems with coordination, failed rotations, bad leadership and so on. 6/

The situation may be puzzling for many, given the recent media focus on Ukraine’s successes in Kursk.

According to Syrskyi, one of the goals of the Kursk offensive was to draw Russian forces away from Ukraine, especially Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions. 7/

The desired end result didn’t happen. Russia has sent units from Ukraine to Kursk, but from less important areas. The offensive didn’t yield gains significant enough to force Russia to move the fighting on Russian soil to a larger extent. 8/

After containing the Ukrainian offensive, the most acute threat scenarios and a larger breakthrough were avoided. Why should they care, if some border villages are left under Ukrainian control? Why would they sacrifice other objectives to counterattack in Kursk? 9/

At the moment, we’re seeing a rather doctrinal approach to the general situation from the Russians. They’re reinforcing success, focusing on gains in an area where significant advances are possible – while only stabilizing the problematic secondary direction of Kursk. 10/

From the Russian point of view, ceasing operations in Pokrovsk to send significant forces to Kursk would have been irrational. Everything they can occupy in Donetsk now is more valuable in relation to their political goals than anything they can realistically lose in Kursk. 11/

For Ukraine, the opportunity costs for prioritizing other directions are growing by the day. The Kursk offensive has slowed down, but it likely still ties a significant number of Ukrainian troops. It’s difficult to understand what the Ukrainian plan is at the moment. 12/

Fortifications have so far failed to stop the Russian advance. Currently, Russia is attempting to break through the main defensive line protecting Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, which consists of a network of trenches, anti-tank obstacles and strongpoints on tactically good terrain. 13/

While the Russians are closing in, Ukraine has started to construct new fortifications in various places. However, the fortifications themselves are not enough, if sufficient manpower and supporting elements are not present when they’re needed. 14/

While advancing towards Pokrovsk, the Russians are also making progress towards Kurakhove. Advancing on the ridgeline may force the Ukrainians to retreat from the fields behind Nevelske and Krasnohorivka. This may happen in the very near future. 15/

Russia will likely push aggressively as long as possible, as any significant gains in Donetsk have been very difficult to achieve quickly. The window of opportunity is open, and they will try to exploit the recently appeared cracks in the Ukrainian defences. 16/

However, the Ukrainians are still able to avoid a collapse. Even though there have been local failures, Ukraine hasn’t allowed Russia to achieve a breakthrough. There have been rumours about more reserves being sent to Pokrovsk, which could help to stabilize the situation. 17/

Thanks for reading. I hope the Ukrainains are able to solve the concerning situation as soon as possible.

Our team at @Black_BirdGroup continues to monitor the situation. Our interactive map can be found here. 18/18

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