Pointing to a map showing the density of S-300, S-400, and Pantsir surface to air missile launchers misses the reality of Russia's inability to adapt to drones.
People looking at this video of a Ukrainian drone being downed by a Pantsir missile (TOR-M SAM have smoke trails) think of it as a successful Russian Defense.
...for which there are no redundant rail line route arounds as well as natural gas pipeline hub for the Russian federation.
Russian electric engines on depowered rail lines block diesel engine trains.
16/
Small, cheap, low & slow drones are a b*tch of a target for modern integrated air defenses (IADS) in the age of satellite radar interference tracking of all active Russian air defense radars
Two satellite radar interference passes overlayed will draw an "X marks the spot" of the location of a surface to air missile radar in the "C" & "X" bands, which covers most RuAF SAMs.
Ukraine's satellite radar interference tracking and electronic tools like Cambridge Pixel app below together can predict where Russian radar coverage can see low flying drones for drone swarm strikes like the one at Moscow.
Russia has a much larger exposed economic & logistical "cross section" compared to Ukraine.
This means Ukraine has a much more massive target set to demolish via strategic drone bombing.
20/
It also means there are too many vital targets for Russian missile defenses to protect that were built with the Soviet Union's "One Big Plant" gigantism.
Precision drone strikes on key power & gas infrastructure feeding those key plants will have disproportionate effects.
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It appears the Ukrainian Kusk incursion has been accompanied by a new Security Service of Ukraine fixed wing FPV drone called the Gray Widow-1 that has a range of 50 km to stop Russian road & rail traffic.
The video of the Gray Widow-1 operations make clear it is now in service.
It's an easy to use munition that is logistically simpler to move and set up than a 60mm mortar and outranges a M109A6 155mm/L39 Cal gun firing an Excalibur GPS guided shell.
I've seen pro-Russian trolls waving this IMF freak flag after one of my posts pointing out the history of how Russian agricultural sector collapse precedes a bigger economic collapse.
Let's look at the official Russian numbers, courtesy of Joe Bloggs. 1/
This is a spreadsheet comparing the hard numbers of US versus Russian economic growth of Jan 2018 - Dec 2023.
BLUF:
The US economy grew more.
2/
This spreadsheet is a comparison of economic purchasing power of the Russian economy over time given the ruble's decline in value in the world economy in terms of the US dollar.
BLUF:
Russian world purchasing power fell 16% from Dec. 2017 to Dec 2023. 3/
This is an English translation 🧵of a Russian language article describing the RuAF "final 10 km to the front line" motor transport logistics made up of donated and stolen civilian motor transport.
The Front-Line troops and Russian Army MP's are now drawing guns on one another as the Russian MP's latest leader in occupied Ukraine is trying to enforce a year-old order to confiscate "Non-standard" motor transport from the front-line troops.
2/
Culturally, this 2024 Russian wartime behavior mirrors that of the Soviet state in late 1941-early 1942 period as described in "The Soviet Home Front, 1941-1945: A Social and Economic History of the USSR in World War II" by John Barber & Mark Harrison.
This is going to be my third 🧵on the AFU's Palyanitsa one way attack (OWA) Drone and the latest information on its cluster munitions payload per the briefing from the "Reporting from Ukraine" YouTube channel.
Palyanitsa Payload/Success Analysis🧵
1/
In the first Palyanitsa thread I did a cost effectiveness analysis at a $300K price point for "American procurement realistic" numbers.
The actual Ukrainian price point of a Palyanitsa is $40K.