Trent Telenko Profile picture
Sep 2 4 tweets 2 min read Read on X
At 1,300 KIA/MIA a day, the Russians lose all the ground combat elements of a Russian division a week.

The drop in Russian artillery losses from 70 to 10 a day reflects either fewer tubes being used or an unwillingness to expose tubes w/o heavy drone jamming covering them.

1/
I am struggling to think of a post WW2 campaign with loss rates of a division per week.

Maybe the 1980's Iranian marsh offensives Iran-Iraq war?

Yet this is a material truth has not put a dent into the convictions in the DC elites around the Biden-Sullivan Administration

2/

Image
Image
Image
...that Russia is surging ahead in material and manpower.

RuAF shell fire, plus their tube & tank loss rates are all declining.

Yet I see this nonsense popping up all over the place in media sources for which veracity is a meaningless concept.

3/3
@threadreaderapp unroll please

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Trent Telenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @TrentTelenko

Dec 8
I've been thinking on what is going on to reduce Russia VKS glide bomb attacks as shown

There are many possible reasons.

Fewer Russian glide bomb drops 🧵
1/
My first thought was to wonder if:

"Are we seeing Russian supply chain problems across its PGM production base due to foreign exchange shortages?"

Russia's Shaheed clones have new and inferior Chinese servo motors.⬇️
2/
I asked around and I was pointed to Ukrainian GNSS (AKA global positioning satellite signals) Spoofing as a more likely cause of the Shaheed-136 clone failures.

Also, that would have nothing with reduced glide bomb drops.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Dec 7
In another round of very useful translation, @sambendett points out the Russians have learned that drones are how combat power is measured in the 21st century.

The Russians didn't share drone tech with the SAA at scale.

Ukraine did with the HTS starting in June 2024.
1/
So the Assad regime fell.

Had Russia sent it's 'troublesome' drone units to Syria, rather than in meat grinder infantry assaults. Things might have turned out differently.

Dmitry "Goodwin" Lysakovsky was a legendary Russian extremist who became a drone
2/
...operator in the DPR army and stayed when it became Russian. 

"Goodwin" ran cross ways of his regimental commander for calling him out for dealing drugs to his own troops on social media.
3/
Read 5 tweets
Dec 7
The Russian use of FPV's to kill Ukrainian boat drones was well established six months ago.

1/
Ukraine gave the Russian navy some really big reasons to go there dating to that time.

Boat-Drones toting large heat seeking missiles to kill helicopters.

2/
That reason is why Russian naval helicopters have been carrying large numbers of FPV's since September 2024.

Why Western Navies have ignored these trends is a very good question for various Western governments.🤔

3/
Read 4 tweets
Dec 7
Mud season is over in Kursk.

Mobik frostbite & trench foot season is here, like has been blindingly obvious for the entire war.

Frostbite & Trench Foot 🧵

1/
The lack of Russian winter uniforms and waterproof winter boots in the "Professional" Russian Army was endemic in the winter of 2021-to-2022.

2/

The Wagner merc & Mobik filled winter of 2022-to-2023 was worse.

3/
Read 9 tweets
Dec 5
While these bases in Syria are a top Russian logistical priority, per the 🧵below.

The issue is the Russian version of the West's expeditionary warfare model is failing in the age of drones.

1/
Ukraine's HUR has had a drone warfare presence in Syria since June 2024 per Business Insider.

HUR spent that time teaching Syrian opposition militia how to do AFU style drone warfare.

Short form - The Syrian opposition has organic drone airpower.

2/
I've beaten on the drum for literally years about how Western analysts and the DC military-industrial complex types in particular don't understand small/cheap drones because it is against their interest to do so.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Nov 30
Pro-Russian/Pro-Syrian accounts on X seem to be a little behind on battlefield developments in Syria.

Assad SAA forces cannot be holding a defense line at Hama, if large columns of Syrian opposition forces have passed through Hama on the way to Homs.🙄

1/3
The reported mutiny of the 47th Brigade of the 11th SAA Division near Hama is playing a large role in this development.⬇️

Syrian opposition offensive is beginning to look a lot like the fall of the Republic of South Vietnam in 1975.

2/3
I've got some popcorn ready for the "VKS evacuation helicopters off of the Russian embassy in Damascus" moment.

Something like this Saigon 1975 photo with an Mi-17 in the starring role.

3/3 Image
Image
Image
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(