At 1,300 KIA/MIA a day, the Russians lose all the ground combat elements of a Russian division a week.
The drop in Russian artillery losses from 70 to 10 a day reflects either fewer tubes being used or an unwillingness to expose tubes w/o heavy drone jamming covering them.
We really need to talk about the huge opportunity that Mullah financial corruption has given the Trump Administration to crash Iran's financial system with E-bombs, AKA non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse.
Wiping the financial records of failing Mullah banks in a revolution...
What jumped out for me about @shanaka86 substack article was the implications of secure digital text communications for the Maoist model of Revolutionary warfare.
See the @grok summary of Mao's 4-level revolutionary model below. ⬇️
2/
Maoist Level 1 & 2 warfare has never had the secure digital text communications Starlink provides.
This means a whole heck of a lot and shoots decades of counter-insurgency doctrine about controlling/blocking guerilla communications in the head.
Okay folks, we have to say at this point what is driving the uprising in Iran isn't the strength of the protests.
It is the WEAKNESS OF THE IRANIAN STATE. Basij commander Shoushtari's killing is the neon sign of Mullah-ocracy weakness. It had to be an inside job, reasons.
This means we need to talk about Russia's LAST PLANE OUT OF TEHRAN. 🧵
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Just as US military evacuations of Saigon and Kabul required securing the embassy & airport for evacuation.
Perhaps as soon as 48 hours from now, the Russian VDV will have to secure the Tehran airport to evacuate not only Iranian Mullah gold, but lots of Russian intel & technical experts.
2/
The Fall of Kabul made clear you not only need marines for ground security.
You also needed a USAF operation/maintenance squadron (-) for loading, refueling and operating air traffic control as you can't count on the locals to run the airport as the security situation collapses.
3/
Job training for a PATRIOT fire control enhanced operator requires 10 weeks of Basic Combat Training and 20 weeks of Advanced Individual Training with on-the-job instruction.
Russian S-300 are far worse than Patriot in terms of human interface & "plug and play" maintenance. 2/
They were literally designed to be operated by drafted Ukrainian university educated STEM students.
The Maduro regime didn't trust anyone from the Venezuelan middle class to operate the oil industry, let alone Russian and Chinese air defense equipment.