Pierre Ferragu Profile picture
Sep 3 15 tweets 2 min read Read on X
The essential pillars of democracy are:
1) freedom of expression
2) habeas corpus
3) balance of powers
4) alternance
5) constitutional reference
If you vote democrats at the next election, you lose 4 out of 5. Be a real democrat, defend democracy: vote for the other camp.
👇
Democracy is not about the popular vote.

The tyranny of the majority is not democracy.

Anyone insisting on the popular vote is a tyrant in the making. "I have the Popular vote so I do whatever I want".

Think Putin. Elected every time.
Democracy is about:
1) right to protest
2) not to fear being jailed without being judged
3) anyone in power is controlled by another independent power
4) nobody stays in power too long
5) all submits to the constitution
Think about carefully. If you have all 5, You have what Tocqueville called the least bad government. As long as citizen are engaged, the government cannot abuse power.
Now, think about today. You have four branches of power: Executive, Legislative, Judiciary, and What I would call Information Control.

This fourth branch is not part of the original theory, but is critical today. It is the media at large, including social.
You also have today a strong constitution ensuring power checks and enabling alternance.

The constitution only enables alternance; it doesn't ensure it.

For alternance to be ensured, you need the preference of electors to be able to evolve.
If the fourth branch of power doesn't let information flow, or submits to the executive power, Alternance is about to disappear.

For alternance to be ensured, you need a free flow of information and therefore, the fourth branch of power to be free from government influence.
Today, you have a mountain of evidence that the Media submits to the democrats. Just look at how their narrative uniformly evolves by the day, if not by the hour.
They take directions from the Harris campaign. If you don't recognize that you are in denial.
You even have evidences that they did for the last election - read the Twitter files and Zuck's letter. Admit it: The democrats in power use their power to control information.
In addition, democrats are now challenging the constitution. It starts at the New York Time - it is not random. If you believe the NYT publishes opinions at random, you are in denial. If Democrats come to power they will challenge the constitution.
It will be insidious, no coup, but they will deligitimate the constitution. Armed Forces plead allegiance to the constitution only. The constitution is the country. Challenging it is treason. Fine if you are a newspaper - freedom of speech. Not if you are the government.
The only way to break this is to vote dems down. I am tempted to say at all cost. I would say at all cost within the scope of democracy.
Conclusion: if you love democracy, vote against the democrat this year.
One last thing: If you vote against the democrats, you'll give the party a great service. Best chance for them to come back renewed, healed and in strength in 4, 8 or 12 years.
A good slogan came out of this impromptu thread: Vote Dems Down!!! ✌️ VDD !!!

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More from @p_ferragu

Jan 10
Long overdue research thread on what a world, in which $400bn are spent on datacenter AI chip in 2027, would look like
👇 $NVDA $AMD $AVGO $ANET and many others.
First, here is what $400bn spent on AI chips in 2027 would look like: GPU and TPU shipments quadrupling, Other in-house accelerators ramping to represent 2x the TPU footprint. Image
What would that imply in terms of installed base? 10m AI servers powered by 100m chips. This alone would more than double the current electricity consumption of datacenter! Image
Read 7 tweets
Jul 14, 2023
What to expect for $TSLA auto gross margin next week? Well... brace for a - short-term, disappointment, with a further slide in 2Q23... But also a good recovery beyond. Here is how we looked at it 👇
Tesla lowered prices materially since the end of last summer. A great move, as it kept the company on track to grow deliveries ~50% p.a. This comes at a cost, though, driving gross margins down, from a peak of 30%, to 18.3% last quarter, adjusted for credits and leasing. Image
It is not the end of it. Even if price stabilized during the first quarter, we show that some further margin pressure happened in 2Q, as in 1Q still a number of cars were delivered at better prices. This means the average selling price will drop by a further $3,000 in 2Q23 Image
Read 7 tweets
May 30, 2023
A bear arguments on $NVDA is that hyperscalers will deploy their own chips to replace GPUs. The argument has been around for a while and doesn’t seem to materialize, beyond $GOOG and the TPU. Why? The promised thread. 1/9 👇
It is true that the TPU costs 3-4x less than a GPU, first because it is a less beefed-up chip (smaller die, less HBM), and also because Broadcom, who manufactures the TPU for Google, takes a lower margin. 2/9 Image
Looking at the total cost of ownership of a TPU slice vs. an A100 HGX server, taking into account the higher efficiency of the TPU, we can conclude the latter is 4-5x more cost efficient than Nvidia’s A100. 3/9 Image
Read 9 tweets
Apr 22, 2023
I find the $TSLA controversy price cut vs. advertising spending interesting. My (strong) view: any dollar spent on advertising by Tesla today would be a waste for everybody: the company, investors, and clients. 👇
Spending on advertising is about 1) growing brand awareness (people know about your products) 2) growing perceived quality, differentiation, and relevance.
I don’t need to convince you Tesla doesn’t needs any of this. Tesla only needs to trigger transactions in a challenging environment for potential buyers (uncertainty and high interest rates)
Read 10 tweets
Mar 2, 2023
I haven’t seen a single right take on Tesla’s announcement about silicon carbide yesterday (excepting ours, of course.) let me explain:
The Silicon Carbide content of a Model 3 is ~$500. The main inverter is pure SiC. In the « Model2 », that cost is not acceptable.
Tesla will therefore combine $125 of SiC with IGBT mosfets (maybe ~~$30) to reduce the bill of material. The idea of this hybrid architecture is to run most of the time on SiC and turn on IGBTs for surges (strong acceleration.)
Read 5 tweets
Mar 2, 2023
My 5 takes on $TSLA CMD:

#1 Electrified civilization is coming. It is now unstoppable.
It is a very obvious fact and I am surprised it is widely overlooked.
#2 20m cars and 1TWh « as soon as possible » is $1tn in revenues, >$200bn in profits and >$5tn in market cap. IMO doable in 2030 or shortly after. There is no Robotaxi, no Optimus, no Insurance, no perception AI platform in this.
#3 The more I see how Tesla operates, the more worried I am for other auto manufacturers: talents, expertise, experience, pace of innovation, collaboration, integration, vision. Incumbents cannot rival Tesla on any of these dimensions.
Read 5 tweets

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