Thread by @TrentTelenko

This X post From @Prune602 I've pasted below is from a long & crunchy data filled thread looking at the crashing Russian railway system capacity.

The thread is screaming several things at me about AFU strategic bombing strategy and its objective for the Russian economy.

1/

https://twitter.com/Prune602/status/1830720023360336116

The biggest "Ah-Hah!" in the thread was the observation that the Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries and depots were less an oil campaign than a transportation campaign aimed at sucking up Russian rail capacity.

>>"Oil & Oil (Petroleum Products),

2/

...they did move more in August than previously.  This may have been because they HAD to due to the oil depot problems.

Remember, any time they ADD or REMOVE an export ban on gasoline (or similar) it causes difficulties for Russian Railways."

3/

https://x.com/kvistp/status/1810637993641943162

That is, Ukraine is forcing a just-in-time delivery system on the Russian railways for military fuels. 

This seems to be a big reason Russian troops when from Kherson and the rest of Southern Ukraine to Kursk by truck.


4/

https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1827074072846483487

In so many words, Ukrainian depot & refinery targeting is forcing the creation of priority Russian diesel & kerosine shipments that are eating up the declining Russian locomotive engine capacity.

5/

https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1830686585160970387

There are multiple other indicators Russian rail capability restrictions.

While Russian manpower losses are running 1,200 to 1,300 a day, we see a vast reduction in Russian artillery tubes losses...

6/

https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1830463715038155046

...a 20% reduction in shelling across the entire Ukrainian front lines...

7/

https://x.com/MalcontentmentT/status/1829936654808990039

...and a reduction in Russian August 2024 tank/AFV loss rates.

8/

https://x.com/verekerrichard1/status/1829209096626811116

Russian artillery tube, tank & AFV losses are directly related to their exposure to Ukrainian drones and direct fire weapons.

As replacement Russian artillery got shorter ranged, and their tubes wore down, their losses increased...

9/

https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1827779623653912834

...because the Russian tubes were closer and had to fire more due to lower accuracy in range of AFU drone surveillance.

Reduced Russian rail capacity means less shells, less firing, and thus fewer losses for immobile RuAF guns.

10/

https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1830606053182206012

Finally, all the other long crunchy data @prune602 laid out is screaming END-RUN PRODUCTION at me a 'la WW2 Nazi Germany's railway collapse.

Things like less intermediate goods being moved because oil & gasoline had to be just jumps out.

11/

The whole idea of "End-Run Production," if it is remembered at all in DC, is usually applied to the Imperial Japanese in the closing months of WW2 when 1945 Japanese production was only 32% of its peak.

The clip below is from "The Great Crusade - A New Complete History of the Second World War, Revised," page 420.

12/

The collapse of the Russian railway system carrying capability is incredibly important from the End-Run Production point of view as it 43% of all Russian transportation, much more for east-west movement and 86% of the rail freight is electric powered.

13/

https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1654168175036997632

Ukraine is forcing massive reprioritization of Russian railway traffic at the same time it is hitting Moscow power plants to disrupt the central rail hub Moscow represents.

Russian electric engines on depowered rail lines block diesel engine trains.

14/

https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1830410632408994097

Given the "One big industrial plant" ex-Soviet gigantism of Russian industry.

I'm watching all of this and setting up some popcorn for when the full effects of End Run Production arrive for the Russians.



15/15 End

https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1830410664818475035