While the links between Russia and the far-right riots in the UK remain hypothetical, the connection between a number of Russian stakeholders and Tommy Robinson (real name: Stephen Yaxley-Lennon) is well established. Let me review them in this thread. 1/17
Robinson appeared in the Kremlin-controlled Russian-language media sphere around summer 2019. His first Russian media contact was Edvard Chesnokov, a correspondent working at the foreign affairs desk of the Russian pro-regime tabloid Komsomolsksaya pravda. 2/17
At that time, the convicted criminal Robinson had, again, troubles with the British justice, and Chesnokov used Robinson’s case to attack the UK, a country that plays a major role in deterring Russian aggression against the West. Following Robinson’s own propaganda, Chesnokov presented Robinson as a victim of state repressions for his opposition to “migrant criminality”. 3/17
Chesnokov even contacted the Russian MFA to have them voice their position on Robinson’s problems with the British law: . The Russian MFA parroted Robinson’s propaganda stating that “persecution of citizens for their beliefs was unacceptable” as if Robinson was persecuted for his beliefs. 4/17kp.ru/daily/26999.7/…
Interestingly, as he noted European support for Robinson, Chesnokov mentioned German politician Petr Bystron of the German far-right “Alternative for Germany” who called on Berlin to grant political asylum to Robinson. In 2024, it was revealed that Bystron had been bribed by Russia to represent its interests in the European Parliament and German Bundestag. 5/17
But although Chesnokov officially introduced Robinson in the Russian media sphere in 2019, Robinson had been covertly promoted by the Russians as early as 2018. During one of Robinson’s imprisonments, a network of “about 600 Twitter accounts, believed to be directly tied to the Russian government or closely aligned with its propaganda [...] tweeted prolifically in Robinson’s defence”. 6/17theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/d…
Fast forward to February 2020: Robinson is on the visit to Moscow. He took part in a conference organised by Russian ultranationalist Mikhail Svetov, who also conducted an interview with Robinson for Svetov’s own media project. When asked about the reasons of his Russian visit, Robinson replied that felt he was “silenced in the UK” and that he was seeking a platform in Russia. 7/17
At that time, Robinson was banned from all major social networks including Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube and Snapchat. (The only platform that still tolerated him then was Telegram, but now Robinson is back on X) 8/17
There was an intense Russian media coverage of Robinson’s visit. He was interviewed for Vechernyaya Moskva, the FAN website (linked to now late Yevgeny Prigozhin), Tsargrad TV (linked to Russian businessman Konstantin Malofeev) and RT, among others. 9/17
His interviews featured a set of recurring disinformation narratives: the US was supporting Islamist terrorists; Russia was unlikely behind the poisoning of the Skripals in the UK; Putin is a strong leader; the EU destabilised Ukraine, while Angela Merkel planned a NATO-led invasion of Ukraine. 10/17
But the main media event involving Robinson was his press conference at Chesnokov’s newspaper Komsomolskaya pravda. The press conference was moderated by Alexander Malkevich who, in December 2018, was sanctioned by the US for his attempts to target Americans with online disinformation through the website “USA Really” linked to Yevgeny Prigozhin. 11/17
But there was perhaps something else during Robinson’s trip to Russia. British far-right activist Andrew Edge said that Robinson “had called him soon after he left prison [...] to ask about bank accounts in Russia”. Furthermore, Edge said that Robinson “later told him he had opened an account during his Russian tour”. Chesnokov “confirmed that Mr. Robinson had discussed the possibility of opening bank accounts. But he said that as far as he knew Mr. Robinson did not actually do it” 12/17nytimes.com/2021/04/23/wor…
In 2021, Robinson recorded a video in support of the Russian pro-regime party “For Truth” founded by the Russian ultranationalist author Zakhar Prilepin. 13/17
Prilepin’s deputy responsible for the party finances was Alexander Babakov, who had been for many years tasked by Moscow to recruit and engage with Western politicians for the Kremlin’s various causes. In particular, Babakov was essential in Marine Le Pen’s negotiations with the Russian officials about a €9 million loan to the National Front that the party obtained from the First Czech-Russian Bank in September 2014. 14/17
Following the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Robinson began parroting Russian anti-Ukrainian propaganda amplifying Moscow’s conspiracy theories about US biological laboratories in Ukraine, arguing that the West was supporting neo-Nazis in Ukraine, and even alleging that Ukraine was intentionally bombing its own civilians to blame Russia 15/17hopenothate.org.uk/2022/03/17/tom…
In December 2022, after the revelations of the Russian genocidal plans in Ukraine became too obvious, Robinson organised a miniscule protest by the Ukrainian Embassy in London protesting against the UK’s support for Ukraine. Robinson’s fringe protest was dutifully covered by Chesnokov in Komsomolskaya pravda. 16/17
I have not seen any compelling evidence that Russia was involved in instigating riots in the UK beyond amplifying far-right online messaging linked to the riots, but Russian connections of Tommy Robinson, one of the main figures behind the developments in the UK, are simply impossible to ignore. 17/17
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Have you noticed a recent uptick in "expert analyses" arguing that Russia remains a strong economy able to wage its war against Ukraine for many years? This uptick is hardly a coincidence, and a new insider report from VCHK-OGPU suggests it's part of Russian information warfare and provides even more details on what is going on inside the Kremlin regime. 1/7
In the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin tasked an informal group of loyal economists (Anton Siluanov, Maxim Oreshkin, Elvira Nabiullina, etc.) with managing economic and financial issues, as well as providing him with reports on real assessment of Russian economy. 2/7
Internationally, however, the Putin regime has aimed at convincing US administrations (first Biden, then Trump) of Russia’s economic resilience and its ability to sustain the conflict, thereby pushing for favourable agreements. This approach - demonstrating strength while masking vulnerabilities - has been more or less successful even with the people close to Trump in autumn last year. 3/7
As Ukrainian forces continue to annihilate North Korean troops and occasionally take them prisoner, some intriguing details have come to light. A short thread 🧵 1/9
Capturing POWs has proven challenging as North Koreans and Russians alike are apparently instructed to kill wounded NK soldiers to prevent them from falling into Ukrainian hands. Yet recently Ukrainians have successfully captured two NK soldiers alive. 2/9
Both individuals carried Russian military service cards alleging they were born in the Tuva Republic, a region included in the Russian Federation. Russian non-regime media also report that the Russian authorities transferred identities of actual Tuvans to drafted NK soldiers. 3/9
With the holiday quiet filling my inbox, I took the opportunity to explore Russia’s potential to disrupt Western underwater cables. Here’s what I uncovered – it’s a deep dive, so buckle up! 1/21
There are three main methods to interfere with underwater cables. The first involves deploying trained professionals to manually cut the cables. This can be done using scuba divers for shallow waters up to 50 metres deep, typically near shorelines, or saturation divers for depths reaching 300 metres. However, the primary drawback of this approach is the risk of divers being caught, which significantly reduces plausible deniability of the responsible party. 2/21
The second method involves using either a fishing net or an anchor to tamper with the cable. One approach is to hook the cable with a fishing net, lift it onto a “fishing vessel”, and cut it there. Alternatively, an anchor can be used to drag the cable and cut it underwater. 3/21
Moscow’s ultimate goal in its war against Ukraine was stated by Putin as early as April 2008 at the Nato summit in Bucharest: the eradication of Ukraine as an independent state and nation. 1/8
The Kremlin envisions to achieve the first part of its aim by dismantling Ukraine, annexing most of it into Russia, and leaving the barely functional remnants to neighbouring European countries with historical ties to those regions. 2/8
Poland would be offered Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Volyn regions; Hungary – Transcarpathia; and Romania – Bukovina and Southern Bessarabia. In fact, Russian officials have already made some of these offers. 3/8
It's relatively straightforward to anticipate the political warfare tactics Russia might employ against the West. The key lies in understanding the tactics Russia believes the West is using against it. Russia feels justified in "returning the favour" – in other words, it often mirrors the actions it perceives the West is directing toward it, responding in kind based on what it considers hostile practices. 1/5
The Putin regime believes that Western nations are interfering in Russian internal politics, supporting opposition leaders and influencers, anti-governmental protests, and media and NGOs critical of the Kremlin to foster unrest. In a “reverse-engineering” mode, Russia is supporting all Western-based stakeholders that challenge the mainstream authorities. 2/5
The Kremlin believes the West conducts propaganda and disinformation campaigns to tarnish Russia’s image internationally, blaming it for various global issues and spreading anti-Russian narratives. Russia does and will continuing doing exactly what it accuses the West of doing. 3/5