Moscow’s ultimate goal in its war against Ukraine was stated by Putin as early as April 2008 at the Nato summit in Bucharest: the eradication of Ukraine as an independent state and nation. 1/8 The Kremlin envisions to achieve the first part of its aim by dismantling Ukraine, annexing most of it into Russia, and leaving the barely functional remnants to neighbouring European countries with historical ties to those regions. 2/8

It's relatively straightforward to anticipate the political warfare tactics Russia might employ against the West. The key lies in understanding the tactics Russia believes the West is using against it. Russia feels justified in "returning the favour" – in other words, it often mirrors the actions it perceives the West is directing toward it, responding in kind based on what it considers hostile practices. 1/5 The Putin regime believes that Western nations are interfering in Russian internal politics, supporting opposition leaders and influencers, anti-governmental protests, and media and NGOs critical of the Kremlin to foster unrest. In a “reverse-engineering” mode, Russia is supporting all Western-based stakeholders that challenge the mainstream authorities. 2/5

A quick take on the Georgian parliamentary elections the day after: the situation, I’m afraid, looks desperate. 1/13 The pro-regime exit poll gave the lead to the ruling pro-Russian and anti-Western “Georgian Dream” party run by the richest Georgian oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili (56.1%), while the two exit polls commissioned by two pro-democratic TV stations projected a victory of the potential coalition of several pro-Western parties. 2/13

While I am generally supportive of the idea of offering NATO membership to Ukraine without including territories outside of Kyiv's sustainable control under the Article 5 umbrella, I think we should be honest to ourselves: if that, indeed, happens, Ukraine will unlikely ever re-gain those territories in any foreseeable future. 1/10 The reason why the above-mentioned security arrangement cannot be called "a divided Germany scenario" lies in the conceptual difference between the Soviet occupation of parts of Germany and Russian occupation of parts of Ukraine. 2/10

Earlier this month, Italian cities saw a pro-Russian billboard campaign: “Russia is not our enemy” was written on billboards that also depicted an Italy-Russia handshake. The billboards also called on stopping to provide money for “weapons for Ukraine and Israel”. 1/15 Ukraine’s Embassy in Italy responded quickly to the campaign saying that it was “deeply concerned by the arrogance of Russian propaganda” in Rome and asking the Rome authorities “to reconsider granting permits for such posters that have a clear purpose of rehabilitating the image of the aggressor state” 2/15

https://x.com/UKRinIT/status/1832813095473029570

A brief comment on the FT recent piece on Michel Houellebecq. First, a quote. 1/6 When I read "Submission" - knowing that it was considered controversial - I actually could not understand why it was seen as such. I myself thought it was some artsy porn tinged with parlour political conversations - a sort of a pale, hollowed-up version of revolutionary porn of Marquis de Sade. 2/6

While the links between Russia and the far-right riots in the UK remain hypothetical, the connection between a number of Russian stakeholders and Tommy Robinson (real name: Stephen Yaxley-Lennon) is well established. Let me review them in this thread. 1/17 Robinson appeared in the Kremlin-controlled Russian-language media sphere around summer 2019. His first Russian media contact was Edvard Chesnokov, a correspondent working at the foreign affairs desk of the Russian pro-regime tabloid Komsomolsksaya pravda. 2/17

Nigel Farage's claims that the West allegedly provoked the Russian invasion of Ukraine are not coming out of nowhere, and the context behind this picture from a few years ago helps understand his claims. Left: Farage, right: Nadia Borodi (Sass). 1/10 Borodi is originally from Ukraine, and together with her partner Oleh Voloshyn they operated an agent network in Europe on behalf of Ukrainian pro-Russian politician Viktor Medvedchuk. Left: Borodi, right: Voloshyn. 2/10

Ukrainian athlete Olga Kharlan refused to shake her Russian opponent Anna Smirnova’s hand after winning the bout at the Fencing World Championships, and was disqualified by the International Fencing Federation @FIE_fencing. 1/7 The International Fencing Federation (FIE) was, until recently, presided by a Russian Kremlin-linked businessman Alisher Usmanov, here in the right. 2/7

The latest report on Russian non-Kremlin right-wing extremism suggests that the war and the Kremlin’s pro-war rhetoric have emboldened the Russian far right who had been in crisis for many years. 1/10sova-center.ru/racism-xenopho… Right-wing extremists are deeply integrated into various civil society structures around the war: they help “refugees”, residents of the regions affected by the war, and the Russian military. 2/10

Since the EU Ambassadors have finally agreed on the 11th package of sanctions against Russia, a Russian "academic" Sergey Karaganov is likely among a dozen of Russian propagandists who are sanctioned by the EU individually. Here's something that one needs to note. 1/7 Karaganov hit the news recently as he suggested to the Russian leadership to target several Western countries with nuclear weapons. 2/7

A general take on the Russian émigré opposition to the Putin regime, a thread. 1/7 If there's a window of opportunity of post-Putin Russia willing to improve relations with the West, the Russian émigré opposition will be one of several Russian groups of interests that will have a say on the Russia of the future. 2/7

Russian opposition activist Alexey #Navalny wrote a 15-point programme: meduza.io/feature/2023/0… With the exception of a few disputable arguments, the programme is quite decent and is a good foundation for further discussions with progressive pro-Western Russians. A thread -> The most important point: Navalny unequivocally acknowledges the internationally recognised borders of #Ukraine (1991). Which clearly implies the need for restoration of Ukraine's sovereignty over #Crimea and all other currently occupied/annexed territories of Ukraine. 2/10

As the German edition of RT has been severely damaged by the latest round of the EU sanctions, it’s worth reviewing research our great colleagues did on that edition. 1/5 “RT DE and Other Russian State Media in Germany” by Silvia Stöber @tavisupleba : democratic-integrity.eu/rt-de-and-othe… 2/5

When Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov appeared in a home video in November 2022 to dispel the rumours about his alleged hospitalisation in Indonesia while attending the G20 summit, various Western observers focused on all the wrong things with their sarcastic comments. 1/8 Some pointed out that Lavrov used American technology (Apple Watch and Iphone), while being notorious for his public anti-American views. 2/8

Ever since the European Parliament adopted the controversial yet potentially game-changing resolution on recognising Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism (tinyurl.com/37kvj857), everybody has been - expectedly - discussing the resolution's primary thesis only. 1/7 However, the resolution featured yet another thesis, which had no direct relationship to the main point of the document but which may have a groundbreaking effect on our perception of Russia's war against Europe today. 2/7

Ukraine needs to do something painful yet necessary: a THREAD 👇🏻 Russia’s genocidal war against Ukraine is more than a conflict between Russia and Ukraine. It’s even more than Russia’s war on Europe. Essentially, what we have today is the continuation of the Second World War.

I was happy to take part in the panel discussion "A War of Values: Can Europe find its place in a new world?" organised by Debates on Europe @DebatesOnEurope in Dresden, here's the video: In particular, I argued that while Western Europe condemns #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine, it feels uneasy about Ukraine's heroic resistance because of the shift of moral authority from Western Europe to Central and Eastern Europe - three months of "We told you so". 2/4

Russian government official Dmitry Rogozin: “What has emerged in place of Ukraine is an existential threat to the Russian people, Russian history, the Russian language and Russian civilisation”. 1/9 According to the speaker of the Russian “parliament” Vyacheslav Volodin, Russia is Putin, so if you replace “Russian” with “Putin’s” in Rogozin’s quote, you’ll realise that Rogozin is actually right. 2/9

The Ukrainian Security Service published an analytical report of the Russian FSB related to #Russia's genocidal invasion of #Ukraine: ssu.gov.ua/novyny/sbu-otr… Here I will highlight some FSB's guidelines on what influence operations Russia should carry out in Europe, thread -> 1/6 Russian influence operations in Europe recommended by the FSB:
- Dropping a massive package of information on "facts" and "forecasts" on the decline of the quality of life in the EU linked to the EU governments' policies supporting "nationalist groups" in Ukraine; 2/6

Hungary gets 65% of its oil supplies from Russia via the Druzhba Pipeline that goes through Ukraine. When a Ukrainian official mentioned that the transfer of Russian oil may be used as leverage against anti-Ukrainian policies of Orbán’s regime -> 1/8 -> Hungary’s Foreign Ministry responded quite nervously saying that Hungary helps hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees. 2/8