In Western democracies, intelligence services increasingly buy data and analyses from private firms. These companies provide OSINT reports, satellite imagery, and cybersecurity expertise, allowing governments to boost capabilities without permanently expanding bureaucracies. 1/11 In Russia, this outsourcing logic found an analogue in the fusion of state propaganda and private enterprise. Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Internet Research Agency (IRA) pioneered commercialised political warfare, blurring lines between business interests and Kremlin objectives. 2/11

Since 2010, when Viktor Orbán returned to power, he and Fidesz have been steadily checking off the boxes for building a mafia state in Hungary. At some point, Orbán seems to have decided never to leave power again. 1/11 With the opposition weak, the EU unwilling to act, and cheap Russian energy fuelling populism, Orbán’s model appeared flawless. But since early 2025, that illusion has begun to unravel. 2/11

As Russia grows concerned about the resumption of US arms deliveries to Ukraine and the introduction of new, more damaging sanctions by the US, it is playing yet another trick to delay Washington’s measures. 1/5 This latest ploy is the so-called “new and different approach” allegedly proposed to Marco Rubio by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during their meeting in Malaysia earlier today. 2/5

Putin’s daughter, Katerina Tikhonova, is rumoured to be under consideration as a potential successor to her father as Russia’s leader. This idea is presumably being pushed by the Kovalchuk brothers, who are close to Putin. 1/5 I still don’t really see Putin vacating his position before his physical demise – although, of course, he could remain the major power broker behind whoever he selects to succeed him. 2/5

Western mainstream media have played a major and deeply disturbing role in amplifying the ideas of Russian fascist ideologue Alexander Dugin, both in the West and beyond. 1/10 By falsely portraying Dugin as having considerable – if not definitive – influence on Kremlin thinking, they encouraged far-right as well as non-far-right sympathisers of the Putin regime around the world to regard his fascist ideas as legitimate critiques of Western liberal democracy. 2/10

Interesting details have emerged about the elimination yesterday of Zaur Gurtsiyev, a Russian war criminal who commanded air operations during the capture of Mariupol in Ukraine in 2022. 1/4 According to VChK-OGPU sources, Gurtsiyev was drawn into a scheme involving a homosexual honey trap. He met a man on a gay dating website, and they exchanged explicit photos. 2/4

Playing for time while preparing a new offensive against Ukraine and further sabotage operations across wider Europe, the Kremlin has – at this stage still unofficially – voiced five major demands, according to Reuters sources. 1/6 Putin “wants a ‘written’ pledge by major Western powers not to enlarge the U.S.-led NATO alliance eastwards”. Of course, NATO is one of the organisations Putin fears most – so how exactly will Russia keep destabilising Moldova and Georgia, and continue destroying Ukraine, if they join NATO? 2/6

Vladimir Medinsky, the head of the Russian delegation at the Russia-Ukraine talks, stated that Russia “fought Sweden for 21 years” and is prepared to wage war against Ukraine “however long it takes” – “Russia is prepared to fight forever”. 1/5

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1923357966880604303

Medinsky is not a random adviser to Putin; he oversees the historical revisionism mechanism, one of three key tools used to enforce Putin’s worldview on the West and Ukraine. The other two are pan-Russian ultranationalism and dehumanising political technology. 2/5

Putin has no ideology; he is, in fact, an intellectually unsophisticated person. His entire political worldview rests on two very simple narratives. 1/9 One is that the West is waging an eternal war against Russia.
The other is that Ukraine is merely an instrument of the West in the current episode of the perennial anti-Russian war. 2/9

BREAKING: Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) has exposed a Hungarian military intelligence network spying against Ukraine - for the first time in the country’s history. 1/4 The Hungarian spy cell was tasked with gathering information on the military security of the Transcarpathia region (a Ukrainian region bordering Hungary), identifying vulnerabilities in the region’s ground and air defence,… 2/4

The apparent involvement of a 30-year-old Ukrainian national from the Donetsk region in the stabbing attack in central Amsterdam at the end of March this year brings to mind an incident from May 2024. 1/7 That month, a teenage Ukrainian refugee from Kherson planted an explosive device in an IKEA store in Lithuania’s capital, Vilnius, causing an explosion and a fire. He was swiftly arrested by the Lithuanian police. 2/7

Austria’s security services (DSN) have uncovered a Russian disinformation operation, coordinated through a Bulgarian intermediary. The campaign aimed to discredit Ukraine in German-speaking countries by deploying fake pro-Ukraine content embedded with extremist cues to manipulate perception. 1/6 Graffiti near Vienna’s Soviet War Memorial mimicking Ukrainian nationalist symbols fits DSN’s findings. The operation sought to provoke moral outrage and pressure local authorities, all while reinforcing Moscow’s false narrative portraying Ukraine as a neo-Nazi state. 2/6

Ukraine’s security and intelligence agencies, in coordination with their Polish colleagues, executed a complex counterintelligence operation resulting in the detention of Kyrylo Molchanov, a Russian intelligence asset operating under the guise of a political commentator. 1/7 Molchanov was reportedly active on behalf of both the Russian FSB and SVR. A key figure in Kremlin-aligned media linked to Viktor Medvedchuk, he played a role in disinformation efforts targeting Ukraine and its international partners. 2/7

Russian internet users searched for “Michael Stürzenberger stabbed” before the knife attack on him in Mannheim, Germany, in May 2024. 1/5 Russians also accessed a live webcam feed of Mannheim’s town square shortly before the stabbing, suggesting possible foreknowledge. 2/5

Just before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) shipped over €9 billion in cash to Russia. At least 10 shipments arrived on or after 24 February, boosting liquidity as Russian forces attacked Kyiv. 1/5 Recipients included TBSS, a firm linked to Russian government agencies. Experts say the influx of foreign cash likely supported Putin’s war effort, even if RBI insists it only dealt with banks. Cash can buy loyalty – and fund war operations. 2/5

It is a legitimate point that the idiocy of Steve Witkoff’s recent comments on Ukraine stems from his complete lack of knowledge about Ukraine, or Russia, or politics in general. 1/9 After all, Witkoff has spent his entire life in real estate investment — he is simply unqualified for the role Trump has assigned to him. 2/9

“The future of Europe should not be decided in Washington or Moscow”. President Emmanuel Macron delivered his address to the French people today, here's a thread summarising his speech. 1/11 His address has outlined a strategic vision for France and Europe in response to mounting global instability, particularly the ongoing war in Ukraine and the broader Russian threat. 2/11

Have you noticed a recent uptick in "expert analyses" arguing that Russia remains a strong economy able to wage its war against Ukraine for many years? This uptick is hardly a coincidence, and a new insider report from VCHK-OGPU suggests it's part of Russian information warfare and provides even more details on what is going on inside the Kremlin regime. 1/7 In the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin tasked an informal group of loyal economists (Anton Siluanov, Maxim Oreshkin, Elvira Nabiullina, etc.) with managing economic and financial issues, as well as providing him with reports on real assessment of Russian economy. 2/7

As Ukrainian forces continue to annihilate North Korean troops and occasionally take them prisoner, some intriguing details have come to light. A short thread 🧵 1/9 Capturing POWs has proven challenging as North Koreans and Russians alike are apparently instructed to kill wounded NK soldiers to prevent them from falling into Ukrainian hands. Yet recently Ukrainians have successfully captured two NK soldiers alive. 2/9

With the holiday quiet filling my inbox, I took the opportunity to explore Russia’s potential to disrupt Western underwater cables. Here’s what I uncovered – it’s a deep dive, so buckle up! 1/21 There are three main methods to interfere with underwater cables. The first involves deploying trained professionals to manually cut the cables. This can be done using scuba divers for shallow waters up to 50 metres deep, typically near shorelines, or saturation divers for depths reaching 300 metres. However, the primary drawback of this approach is the risk of divers being caught, which significantly reduces plausible deniability of the responsible party. 2/21

A snapshot of the situation in Romania:

— A largely unknown far-right candidate shocks the nation by unexpectedly winning the first round of the presidential elections. 1/8 — The political establishment, caught off guard, demands a recount of the votes, suspecting irregularities. 2/8