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Crémieux Profile picture
@cremieuxrecueil
Sep 4, 2024 • 2 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
In 2020, the South African government banned alcohol sales as part of their COVID measures. Then they lifted the ban, and then brought it back unexpectedly, and then did that again

Every ban saw murders decline, and every reprieve saw them return. Stunningly, prohibition worked: Image
Excessive alcohol consumption is also a mainstay of violence and stupidity in many other places. This isn't to say that the best move is thus a blanket alcohol ban, but it is to say that we have strong causal evidence for alcohol's involvement.

Source: direct.mit.edu/rest/article/1…

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Crémieux Profile picture
Jun 30
Amy Wax got in trouble for remarking that she'd not seen a Black student in the top quarter of a Penn Law class.

Thanks to hacked Columbia data, we can see that she was...

Probably right!

In the decade before her statement, there were just two top-25% Black students. Image
It is *totally* plausible that she never met these students. And it's also plausible that she rarely saw Black students in the top *half*, because each year, the number of them was just 1-4.

But, despite being 8% of the class, they were ~40% of the bottom 10%-ranked students: Image
Note: Penn is on-par/slightly less elite than Columbia, so it's likely that the Black students there were somewhat *worse*, as the article notes, making her claims more likely.

This all comes from @zagrebbi's latest article. It's well worth a read!

Link: rightrationalism.art/p/black-law-st…
Read 4 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Jun 26
The medical community has cured a mountain of diseases in the past several decades.

Diseases cured thread🧵

In 2013, hepatitis C was cured by direct-acting antivirals. Image
Peptic ulcers are now curable in more than 90% of patients via antibiotic triple/quad therapy (1994). Image
Sickle cell anemia was cured in 2023 for >96% of patients. Image
Read 22 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Jun 9
Because America has made the wise decision to compensate blood donors, it has ended up supplying some 70% of the world's blood plasma.

This is one of America's top exports, and each year, America saves hundreds of thousands of lives because it does this. Image
Some people argue against plasma donation on the basis of it being disproportionately used by poorer people

They say it's exploitative: they feel that selling something your body makes is wrong if disparate in ways they care about

But it's a lifesaver!

There's also research indicating that plasma donation can be healthy!

(And there's more indicating that, with compensation, it might reduce crime in the local area.)

Read 4 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Jun 7
It's Pride Month, so let's talk about why San Francisco is so incredibly gay.

Military policy.

🧵 Image
In 1982, Randy Shilts published his biography of Harvey Milk, entitled "The Mayor of Castro Street".

For those who don't know, Harvey Milk was the first open homosexual to be voted into public office in the state of California.

He was on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors. Image
The biography contains a fair bit of background, not just about Harvey Milk, but about San Francisco's gay community more generally.

In its early years, San Francisco attracted large waves of mainly male migrants motivated by the promise of gold in California. Image
Read 18 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Jun 1
My Uber driver says

- His license is suspended
- He was once a soldier for a Mafia family
- He's telling me about his time in Rikers
- He's showing me YouTube videos
- He's telling me his theories about Jews
He's telling me about gang wars he was in ad a kid.

He's wondering why all the Chinese girls are lined up - for an audition?

He says to go to Mother's Ruin for latin prostitutes.

All of this entirely unprompted.
"Yeah, these African guys, yeesh"

"I couldn't fuck that whore because I got the erectile dysfunction."

He just keeps going.
Read 6 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
May 29
This is just not true and it's sad that people believe it.

It's also indicting, when it's so obviously false if you just look out into the world. What you see should match what the statistics clearly show:

Estimated marriage effects for men and women are almost always similar🧵 Image
In that chart, I used the GSS and found something many people replicate:

1. Cross-sectionally, there's a relationship between being married and life satisfaction. It's similar for men and women.

2. Within persons—causally!—marriage boosts life satisfaction, but more for women.
Leveraging the same within-person design, we can use the Add Health dataset to look at stress and depression.

For both sexes, the effects are indistinguishable.

But they're also mostly not real: it's just that people who get married tend to be less stressed and depressed! Image
Read 10 tweets

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