Recently, a new development in drone warfare has been sighted - the so-called Dragon drones.
Ukrainian drones are pouring thermite on Russian positions. This is something different from FPVs and bombers, and from a psychological viewpoint rather terrifying. 1/🧵
Thermite is a substance that burns at very high temperatures. Not only do the trees and bushes burn, but it can also damage equipment, vehicles and fortifications, and cause severe burns to soldiers.
With less vegetation, drone recon and strike missions are more effective. 2/
This is also a new twist to the fear of drones.
Imagine: out of nowhere, fire starts raining down from the sky, and there’s nothing you can do to stop it. You can’t put it out with water. Your comrades are screaming, caught in flames, like human torches. 3/
This tactic hasn't been widely seen before, and I'm unsure how common it will become. It won't replace FPVs or bombers as a common strike method against infantry or vehicles, but it's a potential addition to existing capabilities, at least for special purposes. 4/
Even though the first examples of Dragon drones have been seen very recently, the innovation has been there for some time already. After the first public video, many brigades and groups quickly posted material of the Dragons from various parts of the front. 5/
There are still open questions about the Dragons, and it's too early to assess their actual effect on the battlefield and how they might evolve. The Russians might also adopt the innovation in some form if it proves to be effective.
In any case, an interesting phenomenon. 6/6
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Ukraine has been fighting for three years in increasingly difficult conditions. Today, the Nordic and Baltic countries announced that they will “pledge to provide equipment and training for a scalable brigade-sized unit”. It’s a textbook example of too little, too late. 1/
As far as I understand from this statement, there will be a new Ukrainian brigade based on Nordic & Baltic training and equipment. In theory, this is positive news. This could, at its best, produce a highly capable unit, trained by some of the best militaries in Europe. 2/
But here’s the catch: this brigade is being formed at a time when Ukraine faces a chronic manpower shortage. Simply put, Ukraine doesn’t lack brigades, it lacks men. Depending on its structure, this Nordic-Baltic-trained brigade could be somewhere between 3000-5000 soldiers. 3/
Ukraine has carried out a series of counterattacks in several directions, especially southeast of Pokrovsk. They have entered Pishchane, but currently it's unclear if they have fully retaken the village.
At the same time, the Russians are still attacking in the area too. 1/
Ukrainians are achieving limited success. It's likely an attempt to further grind down the Russian attacks which have slowed down during the last two months. The Ukrainians certainly also want to contain the threat of an encirclement around Pokrovsk. 2/
The Russians have multiple simultaneous issues and they have taken significant losses for many months. At some point the offensive has to slow down, and we may be seeing that currently. I don't expect a major collapse to happen, but this is still a positive signal for Ukraine. 3/
After six months of combat in the Kursk salient, the Ukrainians launched another attack in the southeastern direction of Sudzha. The Ukrainians seemingly breached the first Russian defences, and an armored column managed to advance up to 5-7 kilometers deep towards Ulanok. 1/
The attack was carried out by a battlegroup of likely 1-2 battalions in size, also equipped with engineering vehicles. Ukraine has a relatively large grouping of air assault, mechanized and other brigades in Kursk, but it’s unclear which participated in this operation. 2/
The attack appeared to advance on a narrow front towards Ulanok. The troops took control of the small villages of Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Fanaseevka along the road. It is unclear how far the Ukrainians advanced – possibly as far as the outskirts of the village of Ulanok. 3/
Vellyka Novosilka and Kurakhove have fallen, and Russians continue their offensive towards Pokrovsk.
In this thread I will examine what is to be expected of the most critical area of the eastern front in the near future, and what can the Russians realistically achieve. 1/
The losses of Velyka Novosilka and also Kurakhove ultimately had a rather limited impact on the broader dynamics of the battlefield in the southern and central Donetsk directions. The defensive importance of the towns had already decreased earlier, as the flanks fell. 2/
Apart from simply reaching the administrative borders of the Donetsk region, there is little to be achieved in the Velyka Novosilka direction now. There are only small villages, fields and some limiting terrain. Ukrainians have fortified many dominant heights and ridges. 3/
Ukrainians have continued their attacks in Kursk. Today, an armored column advanced towards Bolshoye Soldatskoye, and reportedly fighting is ongoing in other villages too.
I find it unlikely that these actions could produce very significant results. 1/
The Ukrainians are facing a stronger enemy. It's possible they achieve some tactical success with the element of surprise, and in the best case scenarios they may be able to enter some villages. In the big picture, however, the general situation will likely remain the same. 2/
The Ukrainians have lost more than half of the area in Kursk that they controlled at most in August-September 2024. Even if the new attacks were to advance ten kilometers, the battles would still be fought in the same general areas where fighting has been going on for months. 3/
During the past year, there have been several attacks against critical infrastructure near Finland. Russians are being increasingly apparent in their will to escalate the situation in the Baltic Sea.
These events must be set in the right context to understand why they happen. 1/
In the most recent case, cargo ship Eagle S damaged the Estlink-2 cable. The investigation has just begun, so officially Finland isn’t blaming anyone. However, there’s a recurring pattern and practically only one country can be behind it - Russia. 2/
Nothing happens randomly. Before the current events, Russia has used careful consideration in launching a series of attacks against the critical infrastructure of Finland and other Nato countries in the Baltic Sea region. Russia is deliberately seeking to increase hostilities. 3/