Recently, a new development in drone warfare has been sighted - the so-called Dragon drones.
Ukrainian drones are pouring thermite on Russian positions. This is something different from FPVs and bombers, and from a psychological viewpoint rather terrifying. 1/🧵
Thermite is a substance that burns at very high temperatures. Not only do the trees and bushes burn, but it can also damage equipment, vehicles and fortifications, and cause severe burns to soldiers.
With less vegetation, drone recon and strike missions are more effective. 2/
This is also a new twist to the fear of drones.
Imagine: out of nowhere, fire starts raining down from the sky, and there’s nothing you can do to stop it. You can’t put it out with water. Your comrades are screaming, caught in flames, like human torches. 3/
This tactic hasn't been widely seen before, and I'm unsure how common it will become. It won't replace FPVs or bombers as a common strike method against infantry or vehicles, but it's a potential addition to existing capabilities, at least for special purposes. 4/
Even though the first examples of Dragon drones have been seen very recently, the innovation has been there for some time already. After the first public video, many brigades and groups quickly posted material of the Dragons from various parts of the front. 5/
There are still open questions about the Dragons, and it's too early to assess their actual effect on the battlefield and how they might evolve. The Russians might also adopt the innovation in some form if it proves to be effective.
In any case, an interesting phenomenon. 6/6
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Russia is advancing, but it’s also spending significant amounts of men and material in the process.
In this thread I’ll take a look on two important directions: Kurakhove and the concerning developments there, and the politically motivated Kursk counteroffensive. 1/
In Kurakhove, the Russians are closing in from almost all directions. They have entered the eastern part of the town, and it seems a couple of large Ukrainian fortified strongpoints have already fallen. Some troops also entered the village of Dalne. 2/
The latest advances are threatening the Ukrainian positions between Uspenivka and Yelyzavetivka. It’s unclear how firmly the Russians have been able to establish a presence in Dalne, but the fact that they’re getting there at all so quickly, is already an issue. 3/
The Russians recently launched a large offensive in eastern and southern Donetsk, on a 70 kilometers wide front.
The attack has breached Ukrainian defences in just a few days in many areas, and there can be some dangerous developments ahead, which I’ll discuss in this thread. 1/
The operation has two main focus areas, the Selydove-Kurakhivka area and the southern direction, where the enemy is currently advancing in the area between Shakhtarske and Bohoyavlenka. Both directions have their own problems and threats. 2/
In a short timeframe, Ukraine has very likely lost Selydove (over 21 000 pre-invasion residents), which is the largest city Russia has captured since the fall of Avdiivka. Simultaneously Russians also captured Hirnyk (10 000 pre-invasion residents). 3/
Recently, it has been said that North Korean troops in Ukraine are a sign of Russia’s weakness.
While this arrangement naturally proves once again that the war isn’t going as Russia initially wanted, I view this as a practical solution rather than just simple weakness. 1/
Russia's problems shouldn't, of course, be downplayed.
You don’t have to be Clausewitz to understand that the quick operation to subjugate Ukraine isn’t going very well, when you hear the words “North Korean troops will likely soon arrive in Kursk to help Russia”. 2/
However, this isn’t a relevant way to approach the matter. From Russia’s perspective, there are many benefits in cooperating with the North Koreans.
North Korea has already had a significant impact on Russia’s capabilities by selling them millions of artillery shells. 3/
In the last few days, the Russians have continued successful attacks against the western flank of the Ukrainian-controlled area in Kursk. The Ukrainian defences were breached and Russian troops were able to push relatively deep. 1/
Let’s take a brief look at the recent developments.
Russians have carried out multiple counterattacks in Kursk in September and October. The first major success was opening the land route between Glushkovo and Korenevo. For Ukraine, this was a problematic setback. 2/
From the Russian perspective, it was a pragmatic move, which was likely to happen at some point. It reduced the risk of Ukrainians cutting off and capturing Glushkovo and the area south of Seym river, as the supply didn’t solely depend on temporary bridges anymore. 3/
Vuhledar has now most likely fallen to the Russians.
Some Ukrainian sources are still reporting of resistance inside the city, but because of recent geolocations, I believe the Russians are now de facto controlling the town. The fighting continues in the surrounding fields. 1/
There can of course be some small pockets of Ukrainian defenders inside the town, and they may even have a foothold on the northeastern corner of Vuhledar. However, it can't be said that the Ukrainians would be in control of Vuhledar anymore. 2/
Capturing Vuhledar doesn't give the Russians any immediate benefits or avenues of approach towards Kurakhove.
The battles will likely soon shift to Novoukrainka and Bohoiavlenka. Between Vuhledar and Kurakhove, there's a distance of over 20 km and many fortifications. 3/
During September, Russians have made significant gains in the Vuhledar area.
The situation on a previously stable front has quickly deteriorated, and the Russians are less than five kilometers from the main supply road. 1/
Vuhledar has withstood many attacks during the years.
One of the most famous incidents was the defense against the Russian winter offensive in early 2023. The Russians attacked with a lot of armored support, but suffered very heavy losses while achieving very little. 2/
However, the battle of Vuhledar may be nearing its end soon, as the most recent developments are very concerning for the Ukrainians. There are not many fields the Russians need to capture in order to force the Ukrainians to retreat from the city. 3/