Emil Kastehelmi Profile picture
Sep 6 6 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Recently, a new development in drone warfare has been sighted - the so-called Dragon drones.

Ukrainian drones are pouring thermite on Russian positions. This is something different from FPVs and bombers, and from a psychological viewpoint rather terrifying. 1/🧵
Thermite is a substance that burns at very high temperatures. Not only do the trees and bushes burn, but it can also damage equipment, vehicles and fortifications, and cause severe burns to soldiers.

With less vegetation, drone recon and strike missions are more effective. 2/
This is also a new twist to the fear of drones.

Imagine: out of nowhere, fire starts raining down from the sky, and there’s nothing you can do to stop it. You can’t put it out with water. Your comrades are screaming, caught in flames, like human torches. 3/
This tactic hasn't been widely seen before, and I'm unsure how common it will become. It won't replace FPVs or bombers as a common strike method against infantry or vehicles, but it's a potential addition to existing capabilities, at least for special purposes. 4/ Image
Even though the first examples of Dragon drones have been seen very recently, the innovation has been there for some time already. After the first public video, many brigades and groups quickly posted material of the Dragons from various parts of the front. 5/ Image
There are still open questions about the Dragons, and it's too early to assess their actual effect on the battlefield and how they might evolve. The Russians might also adopt the innovation in some form if it proves to be effective.

In any case, an interesting phenomenon. 6/6

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More from @emilkastehelmi

Dec 14
It has been claimed that this is a video of North Korean infantry attacking in Kursk. A few of points:

Firstly, this isn't a human wave assault, as there's no fighting. Around 40 soldiers can be counted, which means it's likely a platoon on the move through an open field. 1/
The video quality is low, I can't visually confirm if they are NK soldiers. However, it's possible they are, as they should currently be in the area.

Other videos of similar actions from nearby locations have also been posted on Telegram channels.
All the videos posted today show roughly three platoons on the move at different times of day. The videos do not provide enough information of the tactics these units use in combat, so I can't comment on that unfortunately. Here's where the movement happened. 3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
Dec 13
It seems that the Ukrainian defenders in Hannivka may be encircled, as Russians pushed deeper into Uspenivka.

Based on geolocated footage and both Russian and Ukrainian Telegram channels, a Ukrainian detachment of unknown size has been cut off from the rest of the troops. 1/ Image
The situation in Hannivka has reportedly been difficult before already, as the enemy could threaten the thin supply lines from both sides. Despite the obvious threats the Ukrainians seemingly were not given the order to retreat from the dangerous positions. 2/
Reportedly, efforts are underway to relieve the defenders, and the current situation is unclear. Succeeding in this operation depends a lot on how well the Russians are able to entrench themselves in Uspenivka. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Dec 1
This fall has been grim for Ukraine. According to our assessment, between 1 September and 30 November, the Russians captured over 1600 km2 in Ukraine, and retook roughly 500 km2 in Kursk. The rate of advance accelerated every month, despite the Russians suffering heavy losses. 1/ Image
Already at the end of the summer, the situation seemed to be developing in a worrying direction. Especially in August, the Russian gains were relatively large, and it did not seem like the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk would significantly slow down the Russians. 2/
During the fall, while making progress in Ukraine, Russia also conducted several counterattacks in Kursk. Ukraine lost the western flank of the salient, while also losing positions in the east. Between September and November, Ukraine didn’t advance significantly in the area. 3/ Image
Read 10 tweets
Nov 13
Russia is advancing, but it’s also spending significant amounts of men and material in the process.

In this thread I’ll take a look on two important directions: Kurakhove and the concerning developments there, and the politically motivated Kursk counteroffensive. 1/ Image
In Kurakhove, the Russians are closing in from almost all directions. They have entered the eastern part of the town, and it seems a couple of large Ukrainian fortified strongpoints have already fallen. Some troops also entered the village of Dalne. 2/ Image
The latest advances are threatening the Ukrainian positions between Uspenivka and Yelyzavetivka. It’s unclear how firmly the Russians have been able to establish a presence in Dalne, but the fact that they’re getting there at all so quickly, is already an issue. 3/
Read 16 tweets
Oct 29
The Russians recently launched a large offensive in eastern and southern Donetsk, on a 70 kilometers wide front.

The attack has breached Ukrainian defences in just a few days in many areas, and there can be some dangerous developments ahead, which I’ll discuss in this thread. 1/ Image
The operation has two main focus areas, the Selydove-Kurakhivka area and the southern direction, where the enemy is currently advancing in the area between Shakhtarske and Bohoyavlenka. Both directions have their own problems and threats. 2/ Image
In a short timeframe, Ukraine has very likely lost Selydove (over 21 000 pre-invasion residents), which is the largest city Russia has captured since the fall of Avdiivka. Simultaneously Russians also captured Hirnyk (10 000 pre-invasion residents). 3/ Image
Read 18 tweets
Oct 24
Recently, it has been said that North Korean troops in Ukraine are a sign of Russia’s weakness.

While this arrangement naturally proves once again that the war isn’t going as Russia initially wanted, I view this as a practical solution rather than just simple weakness. 1/ Image
Russia's problems shouldn't, of course, be downplayed.

You don’t have to be Clausewitz to understand that the quick operation to subjugate Ukraine isn’t going very well, when you hear the words “North Korean troops will likely soon arrive in Kursk to help Russia”. 2/
However, this isn’t a relevant way to approach the matter. From Russia’s perspective, there are many benefits in cooperating with the North Koreans.

North Korea has already had a significant impact on Russia’s capabilities by selling them millions of artillery shells. 3/
Read 14 tweets

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