Emil Kastehelmi Profile picture
Sep 6, 2024 6 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Recently, a new development in drone warfare has been sighted - the so-called Dragon drones.

Ukrainian drones are pouring thermite on Russian positions. This is something different from FPVs and bombers, and from a psychological viewpoint rather terrifying. 1/🧵
Thermite is a substance that burns at very high temperatures. Not only do the trees and bushes burn, but it can also damage equipment, vehicles and fortifications, and cause severe burns to soldiers.

With less vegetation, drone recon and strike missions are more effective. 2/
This is also a new twist to the fear of drones.

Imagine: out of nowhere, fire starts raining down from the sky, and there’s nothing you can do to stop it. You can’t put it out with water. Your comrades are screaming, caught in flames, like human torches. 3/
This tactic hasn't been widely seen before, and I'm unsure how common it will become. It won't replace FPVs or bombers as a common strike method against infantry or vehicles, but it's a potential addition to existing capabilities, at least for special purposes. 4/ Image
Even though the first examples of Dragon drones have been seen very recently, the innovation has been there for some time already. After the first public video, many brigades and groups quickly posted material of the Dragons from various parts of the front. 5/ Image
There are still open questions about the Dragons, and it's too early to assess their actual effect on the battlefield and how they might evolve. The Russians might also adopt the innovation in some form if it proves to be effective.

In any case, an interesting phenomenon. 6/6

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More from @emilkastehelmi

Aug 15
According to Ukrainian 1st Corps (Azov), the situation east of Dobropillia has been stabilized and the Russians have been pushed out of six villages. They also reported that the combined Russian losses in the area are 385 men, 37 vehicles, 2 AFVs and 1 tank.

A few thoughts: 1/🧵 Image
It is evident that this operation was not merely a few infiltration groups slipping past Ukrainian lines only to be destroyed. While it may have begun as a lighter operation, Russian forces were prepared to exploit breakthroughs, successfully advancing into the Ukrainian rear. 2/
If the reported losses are accurate, it implies multiple Russian battalions were engaged in the battle, with many still fighting, as Russia has not lost all gained territory. The Russians are now likely trying to consolidate and defend the southern part of the corridor. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Aug 12
Russians have recently advanced deep in the area east of Dobropillia. The situation has concerning elements which can escalate it into a serious crisis, but at this stage we’re still not witnessing a disaster – and by definition, not even a breakthrough. I’ll explain. 1/ Image
The situation had been deteriorating for some time. The Russians had been attempting to advance in the Dobropillia direction earlier this month. A gray zone had formed in the area, as the Ukrainians struggled to maintain a firm defence against the infiltrating enemy. 2/
Russia has an advantage in expendable manpower – once it finds a weak spot, it can aggressively try to exploit it by pushing more infantry into the area. Small infiltration groups will try to advance as far as possible, which is enabled by the porous Ukrainian defences. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Jul 3
According to our data, the Russians did not accelerate their advance during June. The pace isn't slow, but most of the Russian gains last month were in less crucial areas.

It can be argued that Russia mostly wasted June without achieving significant success. 1/
The situation isn't great for Ukraine, but it could be worse.

The salient between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka is still an issue, but it didn't rapidly expand in June. The front in Sumy was also stabilized. The worst-case scenarios didn't materialize, at least not yet. 2/
A large part of the Russian gains were south of Pokrovsk, where they are pushing towards the administrative borders of Donetsk oblast. Entering Dnipropetrovsk oblast doesn't change the general situation much, even though there's a lot of Russian propaganda about it. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Jun 5
On June 1, Ukraine conducted a successful operation targeting Russian strategic bombers and other aircraft.

Our battle damage assessment can confirm the following losses: 12 destroyed and 3 damaged aircraft, of which 14 are strategic bombers and 1 is a transport aircraft. 1/ Image
From videos and satellite images, 23 distinct aircraft were identified in total as potentially targeted. The condition of 4 aircraft seen in videos remains unclear. Available evidence doesn’t allow for assessing potential damage or whether nearby drones even detonated. 2/ Image
The highest possible number for total losses is 19, if all aircraft in unknown condition are actually damaged. However, this can’t be confirmed at the moment.

In 4 cases, it appears the drones likely missed, did not explode or cause visible damage for other reasons. 3/
Read 17 tweets
Jun 1
Ukraine has struck multiple strategic bombers in Olenya, Murmansk oblast, 1800 km from Ukraine. This is one of the most successful drone strikes against against Russian air bases in the entire war. The extent of the damage is yet unclear, but I can already say it's significant. 1/
Russia had transferred the valuable planes to Olenya to avoid the exact scenario we're seeing on the videos and photos coming from the area. Bombers operating from the field have repeatedly struck Ukraine with cruise missiles. 2/ Image
These are major and expensive losses for Russia that can't be replaced quickly.

Additionally, the air base in Belaya, roughly 4300 km from Ukraine, has been hit. Also Dyagilevo and Ivanovo air bases are burning. This is a very, very successful day for Ukraine. 3/
Read 5 tweets
May 28
During April and May, the Russians formed a dangerous salient against the Ukrainian defenses between Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk.

The so-called spring offensive has progressed relatively quickly, and serious issues may lie ahead in the near future. 1/ Image
Defending forces in the area initially consisted of newer, less capable brigades, such as the 142nd, 155th & 157th. Elements from other units were also present. Reserves have been brought in – first the 36th marine brigade, and now the 82nd air assault brigade, among others. 2/
Russia's probable operational objectives for the coming months in the area include:

Formation of an encirclement threat around Kostiantynivka

Formation of an encirclement threat around Pokrovsk

Disruption of Ukrainian supply & command elements in the cities in the AO 3/ Image
Read 13 tweets

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