Emil Kastehelmi Profile picture
Sep 6 6 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Recently, a new development in drone warfare has been sighted - the so-called Dragon drones.

Ukrainian drones are pouring thermite on Russian positions. This is something different from FPVs and bombers, and from a psychological viewpoint rather terrifying. 1/🧵
Thermite is a substance that burns at very high temperatures. Not only do the trees and bushes burn, but it can also damage equipment, vehicles and fortifications, and cause severe burns to soldiers.

With less vegetation, drone recon and strike missions are more effective. 2/
This is also a new twist to the fear of drones.

Imagine: out of nowhere, fire starts raining down from the sky, and there’s nothing you can do to stop it. You can’t put it out with water. Your comrades are screaming, caught in flames, like human torches. 3/
This tactic hasn't been widely seen before, and I'm unsure how common it will become. It won't replace FPVs or bombers as a common strike method against infantry or vehicles, but it's a potential addition to existing capabilities, at least for special purposes. 4/ Image
Even though the first examples of Dragon drones have been seen very recently, the innovation has been there for some time already. After the first public video, many brigades and groups quickly posted material of the Dragons from various parts of the front. 5/ Image
There are still open questions about the Dragons, and it's too early to assess their actual effect on the battlefield and how they might evolve. The Russians might also adopt the innovation in some form if it proves to be effective.

In any case, an interesting phenomenon. 6/6

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More from @emilkastehelmi

Sep 1
Recent developments on the eastern front are indicating serious issues in the Ukrainian ability to control the Russian offensive. The Pokrovsk front has the potential to turn into a larger crisis.

In this thread I'll analyze the situation and the reasons behind it. 1/🧵 Image
Russia is focusing its attacks on two directions in eastern Ukraine: Pokrovsk and Toretsk. Recently, Russian forces have made advances in both areas, particularly in Pokrovsk.

In the last two to three weeks, the situation has been deteriorating. 2/ Image
Pokrovsk, a mid-sized city of about 60,000 people has been a crucial logistics hub throughout the war, as it’s located at the intersection of rail and road networks. Together with the nearby town of Myrnohrad they form an urban area with over 100,000 pre-war residents. 3/
Read 18 tweets
Aug 13
The Kursk offensive, situation update.

The operation continues. Ukrainians have expanded their area of control, pushing north towards Lgov and east towards Belitsa.

We had to modify some map visualization styles to better represent the situation. 1/ Image
Part of the Ukrainian focus seems to have shifted to the southeastern part of the AO, to the Belitsa direction.

Ukrainians have likely entered several villages between Belitsa and the state border. There are some uncertainities, as there's very little material from here. 2/
A Ukrainian APC detachment managed to go as far as to the village of Giri, next to Belitsa.

However, they suffered significant losses and likely had to retreat. Belitsa and the immediate surroundings are most likely still under Russian control. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Aug 11
Kursk offensive, situational update:

The operation has been ongoing for a almost a week. During the last days, Ukraine has not made very significant progress, but they have started solidifying their positions in the newly captured areas.

1/ Image
As expected, it took Russia a few days to transfer units to the area, and they will likely continue to do so in the coming days. With their current forces, the Russians have managed to prevent any more serious breakthroughs from happening. Local counterattacks have started. 2/
Russians are likely still holding some central and eastern parts of Sudzha, while the Ukrainians are continuing operations in the area. In Martynovka, Russians counterattacked and likely pushed Ukrainians out of the village. Reportedly Ukrainians are trying to get it back. 3/
Read 19 tweets
Aug 8
Kursk offensive, situation update:

Ukrainians have pushed further in all directions. They have at least a partial control of Sudzha and they're pushing towards Koronevo-Rylsk direction.

Smaller detachments are operating on in the area of the Sudzha-Lgov road. 1/ Image
It is unclear how large the Ukrainian area of control actually is, and what areas are so-called grey zones, where neither party has a solid control. The map is a conservative assessment - Ukrainians may control additional villages. OPSEC is still very tight. 2/
Some Ukrainian units were able to exploit the disorganized state of the Russian defences, and pushed further north towards Lgov. Most likely the Russians still don't have the situation under full control, and we may still see more areas fall to Ukrainians. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Aug 7
The ongoing Ukrainian offensive in Kursk oblast has begun successfully.

In less than two days, Ukraine has achieved a breakthrough, pushing at least 12 kilometers deep, through two lines of Russian fortifications.

The Russians seem to be in a state of disarray. 1/ Image
Why was this possible?

1. Failure of Russian military intelligence or leadership

2. Inadequate Russian border forces

3. Ukraine deciding to commit significant forces in Kursk instead of strengthening the east in order to stop the Russians in Toretsk and Pokrovsk directions

2/
The actual goals are still unclear. Ukraine might try to shift some of the Russian focus from other areas to Kursk. Ukraine may also seek better positions for future negotiations, if the purpose of the operation is to take over and hold land areas for a longer period of time. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Jul 7
Russia has been able to advance unusually quickly in the Niu York-Toretsk direction, which has been a mostly static direction since 2022.

While breaching the Ukrainian defences there, Russia has also made additional gains in the villages around Ocheretyne. 1/ Image
One of the main reasons for these rapid developments seems to be related to Ukrainian rotations.

In late June, AFU rotated the 24th Mechanized Brigade from the Toretsk-Niu York area to Chasiv Yar. 41st Mech from Chasiv Yar took over the positions in Toretsk-Niu York. 2/
Something went wrong, and the Russians were able to exploit the situation. It's not the first time when such developments are observed during rotations.

The 95th Air Assault Brigade and 32nd Mechanized Brigade have now been sent to the area to stabilize the situation. 3/
Read 7 tweets

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