Clément Molin Profile picture
Sep 7, 2024 16 tweets 6 min read Read on X
While russian 🇷🇺 forces are nearing #Pokrovsk city in western Donetsk oblast, ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces managed to hold this advance.

At the same time, ukrainian forces are reinforcing their 3rd and 4th lines of defense.

🧵THREAD🧵1/16 ⬇️ Image
Here is how ukrainian defensive system was organized after Avdiivka fell in late february.

The 1st and 2nd line fell between june and august. If the first one was very useful, the second line was mainly abandonned. Image
This happened for one main reason, russian forces managed to push on foot along the railway. They first took Ocheretyne in late may, then Prohres in july, then Zhelanne at the end of july and Novohrodivka at the end of august. Image
After retreating during 2 months of summer, ukrainian brigades are now defending the 3rd line of defense stopping russian progress for more than a week.

At the same time, engeneering troops are upgrading the 4th line in front of Pokrovsk. Image
Based on ©Planet Imageries from yesterday, I found a lot of new defensive work for the last 10 days.

Here is a look north of Novohrodivka where the main ukrainian vulnerability is present : the railway. Image
Russian artillery and FABs air strikes are beginign to pound Pokrovsk and its neighbouring city Myrnohrad.

At the same time, new ditches are being dug between the twin cities. Image
Yesterday, russian strikes set the fields between the two cities on fire. The fact russian artillery is more present is a proof of ukrainian "controll" over the situation on Pokrovsk axis. Image
The 3rd line south of the city has been extended to the railway.

For the first time, the ditch does not stop before the railway treeline. This is exactly what cost the loss of Novohrodivka. Image
A bit north of this position, the 4th line is currently being upgraded at the southern entrance of Pokrovsk city. Image
Ukrainian forces also dug a long ditch all along the eastern entrance of Myrnohrad. This ditch can't stop infantry infiltration but it can stop russian mecanized assaults.

We can also see some artillery strikes. Image
On the T0504 Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka highway crossing, the ukrainian armed forces continued to dig new positions.

However, I'm still asking myself why they arn't finishing existing ditches like these ones... Image
Here is a map of where all the Planet images are located. I choose to show the direct Pokrovsk direction. The next image is from the town of Ukrainsk, south of here. Image
Now, the russian army is trying to move southwards in the direction of Kourakhove. Since a few days, they are trying to enter Ukrainsk from the south-east, while bypassing the town on the road to Hrynk. Image
Ukrainian forces are now trying to push back russian infantry from Selydove.

New ukrainian units helped holding back the russian advance for the last week on the Pokrovsk direction, while russian army is launching new attacks on the Kourakhove-Vulhedar direction.
According to @UAControlMap new units have been deployed to stop the advance :

2nd "Kara Dog" offensive brigade of the national guard, 93rd mechanized brigade.

And in the last month, 117th and 151st mechanized brigade, 14th NG, 71st Jager replaced other units. Image
Finally, after 2 months of Russian advances, (13km at least) in a highly fortified area, ukrainian brigades managed to hold the advance.

However, there are still large vulnerabilities on the defensive system : russian forces may advance along the railway to Pokrovsk and russian progress is still ongoing near Ukrainsk where the ukrainian are currently retreating from Nevelske.

16/16Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Clément Molin

Clément Molin Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @clement_molin

Feb 17
Le chiffre de 200km2 repris par l'armée ukrainienne 🇺🇦 circule, provenant de l'ISW et relayé par l'AFP.

⚠️Pourtant, ce chiffre est probablement exagéré et et manque de précisions. L'ISW est connu pour ses imprécisions, reprises par l'AFP et d'autres.

🧵THREAD🧵1/9 ⬇️ Image
En janvier dernier, alors que nous avions décelé une baisse de la progression russe (données de @Pouletvolant3), l'AFP titrait le contraire : parlant d'une augmentation x2 de la progression russe. Image
Image
En réalité, cette confiance aveugle dans l'ISW, sans vérification directe a joué un tour à l'AFP.

Le mois de janvier n'avait pas vu une augmentation x2 de la progression russe, à moins que l'on ne considère la vidéo d'un soldat russe, seul, avec un drapeau (mort ou vivant) comme une preuve suffisante de contrôle.
Read 9 tweets
Feb 16
L'Ethiopie 🇪🇹 se rapproche de plus en plus de la guerre civile généralisée

La mobilisation massive de l'armée éthiopienne dans le nord, son retrait de larges zones de l'Amhara⚫️, vers le Tigré 🟡 et les tensions frontalières font craindre un conflit majeur.

🧵THREAD🧵1/24⬇️ Image
L'Ethiopie, 2ème pays le plus peuplé d'Afrique est très régulièrement surnommée la "Yougoslavie d'Afrique", car elle est en réalité une fédération ethnique.

La lutte de pouvoir qui opposent ces ethnies provoque des conflits meurtriers. Image
Ces dernières semaines et en particulier ces derniers jours, l'armée éthiopienne (ENDF) a déplacé des dizaines de milliers d'hommes vers le nord du pays.

La région visée, le Tigré était déjà au cœur d'un conflit meurtrier entre 2020 et 2022 qui avait fait 600 000 morts.
Read 24 tweets
Feb 15
Each day that passes gives Ukraine 🇺🇦 more time to prepare new fortifications that will ultimately slow down russian 🇷🇺 offensives.

The recent russian setbacks allowed Ukraine to largely reinforce its fortification strategy.

🧵THREAD🧵1/16 ⬇️ Image
Ukrainian fortifications are improving. The main defensive lines (yellow) are meant to protect Ukraine's rear.

Between these main lines, we can find multiple smaller ditches lines are barbed wire lines. This strategy is cutting the frontline : Image
We now have multiple squares and rectangles between main and secondary lines.

The frontline is literraly cut in pieces, the black ones are the finished/expected ones and the grey the larger ones, behind, that will be later cut in between. Image
Read 16 tweets
Feb 14
Contre-attaque victorieuse pour l'Ukraine 🇺🇦

Après plusieurs semaines de contre-attaques, l'armée ukrainienne a repris le contrôle de larges territoires disputés dont ~12 villages dans l'est de l'oblast de Zaporizhia.

L'armée russe 🇷🇺 a été repoussée.

🧵THREAD🧵1/18 ⬇️Image
Profitant de la suspension de Starling à l'armée russe (qui permettait de faire voler les drones russes et de communiquer) et de Telegram, l'armée ukrainienne a lancé une série de contre-attaques locales dans le secteur de Ternuvate et Pokrovsk'e, à l'est de Zaporizhia. Image
Les ukrainiens ont utilisé d'importants moyens mécanisés, une première depuis plusieurs mois, profitant notamment des mauvaises conditions météorologiques et de la suspension de Starlink qui empêchent les drones de voler.

Ces assauts ont eu lieu à l'ouest du côté de Ternuvate. Image
Read 21 tweets
Feb 12
I now managed to map 24 000 russian 🇷🇺 and ukrainian 🇺🇦 artillery strikes from the Dnipro to the russian border.

With this map, I'll show you exactly where Russia is putting its biggest offensive efforts and where Ukraine is counter-attacking.

🧵THREAD🧵1/20⬇️Image
With 12k artillery (and airstrikes) found last week, I now added 12k more, including 8k more in the same area as last week (Dnipro to Kostiantynivka).

This work is entirely volunteer and free, I mapped those 24 000 dots by myself.

You can support here : buymeacoffee.com/clement.molinImage
Most of the artillery strikes impacts are concentrated in 4 main areas :

-Hulialpole/Pokrovsk'e : 8 000 !
-Pokrovsk/Dobropilla : 7 000 !
-Siversk : 1 200
-Kupiansk : 1 200 Image
Read 20 tweets
Feb 10
Did Ukraine 🇺🇦 launch a counter-offensive in Zaporizhzhia oblast ?

Multiple accounts reported about this, but it is not really the truth.

Most of ukrainian progress happened in the grey zone, taking back villages which Russia 🇷🇺 was not controling.

🧵THREAD🧵1/12 ⬇️Image
The main question is where is the frontline. I already talked about it twice recently, especially with this analysis of shell impacts.

Take a close look on the Ternuvate direction, you can see barely no artillery/air strikes

Image
On these maps from @M0nstas, you can see the big difference on the definition of frontline from a pro-russian source and a pro-ukrainian source. Image
Image
Read 12 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(