While russian 🇷🇺 forces are nearing #Pokrovsk city in western Donetsk oblast, ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces managed to hold this advance.
At the same time, ukrainian forces are reinforcing their 3rd and 4th lines of defense.
🧵THREAD🧵1/16 ⬇️
Here is how ukrainian defensive system was organized after Avdiivka fell in late february.
The 1st and 2nd line fell between june and august. If the first one was very useful, the second line was mainly abandonned.
This happened for one main reason, russian forces managed to push on foot along the railway. They first took Ocheretyne in late may, then Prohres in july, then Zhelanne at the end of july and Novohrodivka at the end of august.
After retreating during 2 months of summer, ukrainian brigades are now defending the 3rd line of defense stopping russian progress for more than a week.
At the same time, engeneering troops are upgrading the 4th line in front of Pokrovsk.
Here is a look north of Novohrodivka where the main ukrainian vulnerability is present : the railway.
Russian artillery and FABs air strikes are beginign to pound Pokrovsk and its neighbouring city Myrnohrad.
At the same time, new ditches are being dug between the twin cities.
Yesterday, russian strikes set the fields between the two cities on fire. The fact russian artillery is more present is a proof of ukrainian "controll" over the situation on Pokrovsk axis.
The 3rd line south of the city has been extended to the railway.
For the first time, the ditch does not stop before the railway treeline. This is exactly what cost the loss of Novohrodivka.
A bit north of this position, the 4th line is currently being upgraded at the southern entrance of Pokrovsk city.
Ukrainian forces also dug a long ditch all along the eastern entrance of Myrnohrad. This ditch can't stop infantry infiltration but it can stop russian mecanized assaults.
We can also see some artillery strikes.
On the T0504 Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka highway crossing, the ukrainian armed forces continued to dig new positions.
However, I'm still asking myself why they arn't finishing existing ditches like these ones...
Here is a map of where all the Planet images are located. I choose to show the direct Pokrovsk direction. The next image is from the town of Ukrainsk, south of here.
Now, the russian army is trying to move southwards in the direction of Kourakhove. Since a few days, they are trying to enter Ukrainsk from the south-east, while bypassing the town on the road to Hrynk.
Ukrainian forces are now trying to push back russian infantry from Selydove.
New ukrainian units helped holding back the russian advance for the last week on the Pokrovsk direction, while russian army is launching new attacks on the Kourakhove-Vulhedar direction.
According to @UAControlMap new units have been deployed to stop the advance :
2nd "Kara Dog" offensive brigade of the national guard, 93rd mechanized brigade.
And in the last month, 117th and 151st mechanized brigade, 14th NG, 71st Jager replaced other units.
Finally, after 2 months of Russian advances, (13km at least) in a highly fortified area, ukrainian brigades managed to hold the advance.
However, there are still large vulnerabilities on the defensive system : russian forces may advance along the railway to Pokrovsk and russian progress is still ongoing near Ukrainsk where the ukrainian are currently retreating from Nevelske.
16/16
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Le Mali 🇲🇱 va-t-il s'effondrer face à l'offensive du JNIM ?
Le blocus de la capitale Bamako, ne fait que s'intensifier depuis plusieurs semaines.
La poussée vers le sud des djihadistes fait craindre un effondrement, même s'ils ne contrôlent aucune ville.
🧵THREAD🧵1/17 ⬇️
Il y a 2 mois, l'une des meilleures source cartographique sur le Mali (@criticalthreats) a publié cette carte du blocus de Bamako et des principales villes du pays par le JNIM (groupe de soutien à l'Islam et aux musulmans, liés à Al Qaïda).
Depuis ma dernière actualisation cartographique à la fin de l'été, le JNIM a progressé, principalement vers le centre et le sud du pays.
Celui-ci opère désormais dans la majorité du pays, même s'il ne met pas en place de contrôle direct du territoire.
L'armée russe 🇷🇺 a conquis la majeure partie de Pokrovsk, plus grande ville prise depuis mai 2023.
Les infiltrations russes au sud du chemin de fer ont été consolidées, l'armée russe pousse désormais vers la périphérie nord. Myrnohrad est quasi encerclée.
🧵THREAD🧵1/15 ⬇️
En septembre 2024, l'armée russe arrivait pour la première fois aux portes est de la ville après la prise de Novohrodivka.
Il aura fallu un an et deux mois pour contourner les défenses de Pokrovsk par le sud puis le nord-est avant de prendre la ville. (carte de @Deepstate_UA)
Il est indéniable que la bataille pour la ville aura été centrale dans la stratégie défensive ukrainienne.
La progression de 40km à l'ouest d'Avdiivka a été stoppée aux portes de la ville. Il aura fallu un long contournement et beaucoup de temps pour parvenir à isoler la ville.
The core of ukrainian strategy in 2022 was to retreat from the countrysides into large cities, this happened in the north, Nyzhin, Chernihiv, Konotop, Romny...
During the movement warfare, cities were the base of the defense, and Ukraine tryied to keep it later.
In 2023, Ukraine also based its defense on major cities, the main example is Bakhmut, for which the urban battle was one of the biggest and longest (talking about fightings inside, not in the flanks).
-> Bakhmut was the last battle fought during long time inside a city
Most maps of the war in Ukraine are showing the same perspective and the same informations. Here, you will see rivers, railways, fortifications, forests...
20 surprising maps on the war in Ukraine
🧵THREAD🧵1/23 ⬇️⬇️⬇️
1- The frontline in december 2022
Days after the end of the Kharkiv and Kherson counter-offensive, russian army was controling less than 50% of the Donetsk region. The battle for Bakhmut just started and Donetsk was still threatened.
This map may seem old or out of context, but it actually helps to better understand the evolution of the Russian offensives in the Donbas.
One must put oneself in the shoes of the political and military decision-makers in Moscow: they had failed to take Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Odessa, to force Ukraine to capitulate, they had been humiliated in Kharkiv, and had to retreat from Kherson. It was therefore the full force of Soviet firepower that was deployed in the east of the country and became ruthless in the ensuing battles, sometimes at the cost of very heavy losses, as at Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
2- Three years in Donbas
The last 3 years of war have mainly been fought in Donbass.
After very slow and costly advances for the Russian army in Bakhmut and Avdiivka in 2023, the offensive towards Pokrovsk accelerated in 2024, with the Ukrainian army surrendering the best fortifications in the Donetsk suburbs.
The main Russian victory took place in South Donetsk, now completely under Russian control, but many months of campaigning remain, at the current pace, between one and two years to capture the last strongholds in North Donetsk. These three years have seen a constant offensive, the gradual depletion of Ukrainian reserves, and the deaths of hundreds of thousands of soldiers in a relentless war of attrition. On paper, the Ukrainian army has held its ground and not yielded, despite local setbacks. It remains to be seen whether it will maintain its endurance.
L'Armée Soudanaise 🇸🇩 continue d'offrir une base arrière pour les rebelles Tigréens 🔴🟡en réaction au soutien Ethiopien 🇪🇹 aux FSR.
Sur cette vidéo, 500 recrues de l'Armée 70 du TPLF participent à une cérémonie de remise des diplômes dans l'est du Soudan.
🧵THREAD🧵1/8⬇️
En tout, l'Armée 70 compterai plus de 5 000 hommes basés dans l'Etat du Gédaref, à l'est du Soudan.
Ces hommes ont fuit le Tigré en 2020, lorsque l'Ethiopie, l'Erythrée et les forces de l'Amhara avaient coupé la rébellion Tigréenne de la frontière soudanaise.
La région de Welkait, à l'ouest du Tigré (annexée par la région tigréenne à l'Amhara dans les années 1990) a été prise et annexée par l'amhara en 2020, coupant l'accès au Soudan, crucial pour les tigréens.
With two months to go before the end of 2025, the Russian army continues to lay the groundwork for major battles in 2026.
With Pokrovsk falling, Putin will not stop his war before conquering Kramatorsk.
🧵THREAD🧵1/21 ⬇️
The capture of Pokrovsk is drawing closer, culminating a two-year offensive to first clear the outskirts of Donetsk and then assault this strategic city.
Situated on a hilltop and boasting a significant rail and road network, Pokrovsk will give the russians a major advantage.
The capture of Pokrovsk is not yet a done deal, and I estimate that the battle, particularly in the suburbs, will continue for several more months.
The Ukrainian army still holds the strongholds of Udachne and Rodynske, preventing any overrun on its flanks.