Clément Molin Profile picture
Sep 7 16 tweets 6 min read Read on X
While russian 🇷🇺 forces are nearing #Pokrovsk city in western Donetsk oblast, ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces managed to hold this advance.

At the same time, ukrainian forces are reinforcing their 3rd and 4th lines of defense.

🧵THREAD🧵1/16 ⬇️ Image
Here is how ukrainian defensive system was organized after Avdiivka fell in late february.

The 1st and 2nd line fell between june and august. If the first one was very useful, the second line was mainly abandonned. Image
This happened for one main reason, russian forces managed to push on foot along the railway. They first took Ocheretyne in late may, then Prohres in july, then Zhelanne at the end of july and Novohrodivka at the end of august. Image
After retreating during 2 months of summer, ukrainian brigades are now defending the 3rd line of defense stopping russian progress for more than a week.

At the same time, engeneering troops are upgrading the 4th line in front of Pokrovsk. Image
Based on ©Planet Imageries from yesterday, I found a lot of new defensive work for the last 10 days.

Here is a look north of Novohrodivka where the main ukrainian vulnerability is present : the railway. Image
Russian artillery and FABs air strikes are beginign to pound Pokrovsk and its neighbouring city Myrnohrad.

At the same time, new ditches are being dug between the twin cities. Image
Yesterday, russian strikes set the fields between the two cities on fire. The fact russian artillery is more present is a proof of ukrainian "controll" over the situation on Pokrovsk axis. Image
The 3rd line south of the city has been extended to the railway.

For the first time, the ditch does not stop before the railway treeline. This is exactly what cost the loss of Novohrodivka. Image
A bit north of this position, the 4th line is currently being upgraded at the southern entrance of Pokrovsk city. Image
Ukrainian forces also dug a long ditch all along the eastern entrance of Myrnohrad. This ditch can't stop infantry infiltration but it can stop russian mecanized assaults.

We can also see some artillery strikes. Image
On the T0504 Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka highway crossing, the ukrainian armed forces continued to dig new positions.

However, I'm still asking myself why they arn't finishing existing ditches like these ones... Image
Here is a map of where all the Planet images are located. I choose to show the direct Pokrovsk direction. The next image is from the town of Ukrainsk, south of here. Image
Now, the russian army is trying to move southwards in the direction of Kourakhove. Since a few days, they are trying to enter Ukrainsk from the south-east, while bypassing the town on the road to Hrynk. Image
Ukrainian forces are now trying to push back russian infantry from Selydove.

New ukrainian units helped holding back the russian advance for the last week on the Pokrovsk direction, while russian army is launching new attacks on the Kourakhove-Vulhedar direction.
According to @UAControlMap new units have been deployed to stop the advance :

2nd "Kara Dog" offensive brigade of the national guard, 93rd mechanized brigade.

And in the last month, 117th and 151st mechanized brigade, 14th NG, 71st Jager replaced other units. Image
Finally, after 2 months of Russian advances, (13km at least) in a highly fortified area, ukrainian brigades managed to hold the advance.

However, there are still large vulnerabilities on the defensive system : russian forces may advance along the railway to Pokrovsk and russian progress is still ongoing near Ukrainsk where the ukrainian are currently retreating from Nevelske.

16/16Image

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More from @clement_molin

Nov 24
L'armée russe 🇷🇺 tente d'encercler la petite ville de Velika Novosilka, bastion est de la ligne défensive du sud de l'Ukraine 🇺🇦.

La progression russe vers la ville menace la solidité du front sud.

🧵THREAD🧵1/18 ⬇️ Image
Tout d'abord, je tiens à remercier @arthurdiplo et @francediplo pour l'accueil réservé à @atummundi lors de notre déplacement à Paris.

Nous avons également rencontré plusieurs diplomates étrangers, j'y reviendrais !

C'est une véritable percée des lignes ukrainiennes sur le flanc est de Velika Novosilka, une petite ville stratégique.

En 3 jours, l'armée russe a parcouru 6 km et s'approche de la rivière Mokri Yali. Image
Read 18 tweets
Nov 20
We shouldn't be afraid of Russia ☢️🇷🇺☢️

What many failed to understand is that Putin is not crazy nor stupid. He is even quite clever.

He understood we are weak. He understood we are afraid by his power. We shouldn't.

🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️Image
What did he wanted ?

Putin was humiliated by the loss of the Russian Empire. When he came to power, his obsession was to Make Russia Great Again.

He began by fixing the internal situation with Chechenia, saying it was war against terrorism. Image
But from 2003 to 2005, he was one more time humiliated. Many Warsaw pact and USSR countries joined NATO and the EU.

At the same time, color revolutions in Ukraine, Georgia and Kirghizistan challenged his project of great Eurasia controlled by Russia. Image
Read 27 tweets
Nov 19
3 925 jours de guerre en Ukraine 🇺🇦

Aujourd'hui, l'Ukraine fête la triste date des 1 000 jours de l'invasion russe 🇷🇺 à grande échelle. Mais la guerre a commencé bien plus tôt, dès 2014.

Au millième jour, l'Ukraine fortifie la banlieue de Kyiv.

🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️Image
Ce devait être rapide, les armées russes de Vladimir Poutine devaient balayer l'Ukraine, s'emparer de sa capitale et des 3 autres principales villes, Kharkiv, Dnipro et Odessa et changer le gouvernement en place, en intégrant l'est et le sud à la Russie.

Pourtant, tout a changé. Image
Les ukrainiens ont d'abord tenu dans les principales villes, au nord, à l'est et au sud, subissant parfois de lourdes défaites comme le franchissement des ponts du Dniepr, l'encerclement de + 6 000 soldats à Marioupol ou la traversée de la rivière Siverski Donets à Izioum. Image
Read 26 tweets
Nov 17
Quel avenir géopolitique pour l'Arménie 🇦🇲 ?

Plus d'un an après la reddition du Haut Karabagh, l'Arménie se donne un objectif : permettre l'ouverture d'une route entre l'Inde 🇮🇳 et l'Europe 🇪🇺.

🧵THREAD🧵1/23⬇️ Image
Tout d'abord, je serai très heureux de vous retrouver sur Blue Sky pour tous ceux qui ne souhaitent plus rester ici. (Moi, je reste !)



Je publierai bientôt un article sur les frontières de l'Arménie avec l'Azerbaïdjan, au cœur de ce sujet.bsky.app/profile/clemen…
Depuis l'indépendance, Erevan a regardé vers l'ouest et le nord. D'abord, elle a soutenu les séparatistes du Haut Karabagh, occupant une partie importante du territoire Azerbaïdjanais.

Dans le même temps, elle est resté très proche de Moscou, qui dispose de bases militaires. Image
Read 24 tweets
Nov 16
A l'aube de février 2022, une série de batailles dans les oblasts de Soumy et Poltava vont permettre à l'Ukraine 🇺🇦 de sauver l'ouest de Kyiv.

Voici un retour historique sur les batailles d'Okhtyrka et Trostianets au sud de l'oblast de Soumy en 2022.

🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️ Image
En guise de rappel historique, il faut bien comprendre que l'armée russe souhaitait attaquer Kyiv via 3 axes.

1- Tchernobyl-Irpin
2-Tchernihiv-Brovary
3-Soumy-Brovary

Les défenses de Tchernihiv et de Soumy seront ainsi cruciales. (+ carte des principales villes évoquées) Image
Image
Image
Du côté de l'armée russe, c'est la première armée blindé de la garde qui attaque cette direction.

Ses 30ème et 21ème brigades de fusilliés motorisés sont chargés de prendre la route Hloukhiv-Baturyn et Buryn-Konotop.

La 47ème division de chars, la 2ème division de fusillés motorisés et deux brigades, la 27ème et la 15ème doivent attaquer Soumy puis progresser jusqu'à Romny, Prylouky et Kyiv.Image
Read 25 tweets
Nov 13
J'ai commencé à rédiger un article sur l'offensive de Donetsk 🇺🇦

Ce qu'il se passe aujourd'hui à Kourakhove n'est autre que la continuation de cette offensive de Donetsk, qui a débuté en 2014 et devrait se terminer dans un mois.

Je vous explique brièvement : 🧵1/18⬇️ Image
Donetsk, c'est le fer de lance de la Novororissia russe, ce projet de nouvelle Russie allant de Kharkiv à Odessa, et passant par le Donbass et la Crimée.

Donetsk est également la 5ème ville d'Ukraine, au potentiel industriel et minier immense. Image
Dès l'indépendance de l'Ukraine, la République oligarchique ukrainienne (pour reprendre les mots si justes de @SebaGobert) voit une concurrence entre le clan de Dnipropetrovsk (Dnipro) et celui de Donetsk.

A Donetsk règne un certain Akhmetov, oligarche surpuissant jusqu'en 2014. Image
Read 18 tweets

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