Clément Molin Profile picture
Sep 7, 2024 16 tweets 6 min read Read on X
While russian 🇷🇺 forces are nearing #Pokrovsk city in western Donetsk oblast, ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces managed to hold this advance.

At the same time, ukrainian forces are reinforcing their 3rd and 4th lines of defense.

🧵THREAD🧵1/16 ⬇️ Image
Here is how ukrainian defensive system was organized after Avdiivka fell in late february.

The 1st and 2nd line fell between june and august. If the first one was very useful, the second line was mainly abandonned. Image
This happened for one main reason, russian forces managed to push on foot along the railway. They first took Ocheretyne in late may, then Prohres in july, then Zhelanne at the end of july and Novohrodivka at the end of august. Image
After retreating during 2 months of summer, ukrainian brigades are now defending the 3rd line of defense stopping russian progress for more than a week.

At the same time, engeneering troops are upgrading the 4th line in front of Pokrovsk. Image
Based on ©Planet Imageries from yesterday, I found a lot of new defensive work for the last 10 days.

Here is a look north of Novohrodivka where the main ukrainian vulnerability is present : the railway. Image
Russian artillery and FABs air strikes are beginign to pound Pokrovsk and its neighbouring city Myrnohrad.

At the same time, new ditches are being dug between the twin cities. Image
Yesterday, russian strikes set the fields between the two cities on fire. The fact russian artillery is more present is a proof of ukrainian "controll" over the situation on Pokrovsk axis. Image
The 3rd line south of the city has been extended to the railway.

For the first time, the ditch does not stop before the railway treeline. This is exactly what cost the loss of Novohrodivka. Image
A bit north of this position, the 4th line is currently being upgraded at the southern entrance of Pokrovsk city. Image
Ukrainian forces also dug a long ditch all along the eastern entrance of Myrnohrad. This ditch can't stop infantry infiltration but it can stop russian mecanized assaults.

We can also see some artillery strikes. Image
On the T0504 Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka highway crossing, the ukrainian armed forces continued to dig new positions.

However, I'm still asking myself why they arn't finishing existing ditches like these ones... Image
Here is a map of where all the Planet images are located. I choose to show the direct Pokrovsk direction. The next image is from the town of Ukrainsk, south of here. Image
Now, the russian army is trying to move southwards in the direction of Kourakhove. Since a few days, they are trying to enter Ukrainsk from the south-east, while bypassing the town on the road to Hrynk. Image
Ukrainian forces are now trying to push back russian infantry from Selydove.

New ukrainian units helped holding back the russian advance for the last week on the Pokrovsk direction, while russian army is launching new attacks on the Kourakhove-Vulhedar direction.
According to @UAControlMap new units have been deployed to stop the advance :

2nd "Kara Dog" offensive brigade of the national guard, 93rd mechanized brigade.

And in the last month, 117th and 151st mechanized brigade, 14th NG, 71st Jager replaced other units. Image
Finally, after 2 months of Russian advances, (13km at least) in a highly fortified area, ukrainian brigades managed to hold the advance.

However, there are still large vulnerabilities on the defensive system : russian forces may advance along the railway to Pokrovsk and russian progress is still ongoing near Ukrainsk where the ukrainian are currently retreating from Nevelske.

16/16Image

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More from @clement_molin

Jan 28
Le réveil européen 🇪🇺 tant annoncé en 2022 n'a eu lieu que dans la tête et le discours des dirigeants après 4 ans de guerre.

On nous a promis un "tournant historique" qui n'arrive pas et pendant ce temps nos adversaire s'affutent. L'heure est à un premier bilan.

🧵THREAD🧵1/7⬇️ Image
Les grands sommets, Versailles en tête, étaient censés inculquer une nouvelle dynamique. Une Europe puissance, capable de tenir tête à la Russie seule.

Les discours martiaux appelant au réarmement, à la défense européenne, au basculement stratégique n'ont pas donné de véritable suite.

D'abord, il a fallu du temps, beaucoup de temps pour se réveiller. Quand certains avaient commencés en 2014, d'autre sont partis de presque 0 en 2022, comme l'Allemagne. Il y a un bon élève, la Pologne, qui dépense 4.8% de son PIB pour la défense, qui recrute énormément pour l'armée, mais, en achetant principalement hors UE.

Les autres font mieux, mais la lenteur du processus est frappante. Certains ne se sentent même pas concernés (Espagne ou Italie)...Image
Entre 60 et 80% des armes achetés par les états membre de l'UE depuis 2022 ne proviennent pas de l'UE.

64% sont achetés directement aux Etats-Unis. Un symbole, le F35, choisit par 13 !!! Etats européens. En sachant que :*

-Le F35 est très cher
-Sa maintenance est complexe
-Les Etats-Unis peuvent l'empêcher de voler
-C'est un avion qui est très performant mais fragile, très couteux à faire voler…

Dans le cas des Etats-Unis, malgré 4 ans de guerre à l'est (et une aide américaine qui baisse constamment), les pays européens n'ont pas vraiment changé de doctrine. Certes, l'Europe aide plus l'Ukraine que les Etats-Unis, mais elle continue de compter sur Washington pour sa défense.Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 26
Big victory for the Sudanese 🇸🇩 Army after they lifted the 2.5 years long siege of the city of Dilling

It is the biggest victory for the SAF since they liberated the capital city a year ago. At the same time, RSF attempted to open a new front in Blue Nile.

🧵THREAD🧵1/9 ⬇️ Image
Massive forces led by the 5th division of El Obeid, the 10th division of Abu Jubaynah as well as the brigades 53rd and 38th and joint forces entered today the city of Dilling in South Kordofan.

After a month long counter-offensive south of El Obeid, those forces took the Rapid Support Forces by surprise, pushed on open terrain between the Nuba mountains and reached Habila this morning.
After that, they continued their push and reached the city of Dilling, one of the two remaining encircled garrison (after most fell, apart from Kadugli, capital city of south Kordofan, still encircled.

Held by the 54th infantry brigade alone, the city stood 2.5 years.
Read 9 tweets
Jan 25
Why is there a war ongoing in Sudan 🇸🇩 ?

Who are the actors, why are they fighting ? Is the conflict origine from money, gold, oil, power, religion or ethnicities ? Which foreign powers are involved ?

Here, you will find a general guide of the Sudan war :

🧵THREAD🧵1/24 ⬇️Image
When did it start ?

On april 15th 2023. Where ? In Khartoum, the capital city, unlike previous conflicts.

Sudan was already partly at war before, discontinuously since 1983 (1983-2005, 2nd South Sudan war, 2003-2020, Darfur war, 2011-2020, South Kordofan and Blue Nile war).Image
Who is fighting :

The Sudanese Armed Forces :

The SAF are based in Khartoum and Port Sudan; they defend the state's borders and internal stability. Their leader is Al-Burhan, and the military commanders are heirs to the military-Islamist regime of Omar al-Bashir (1989-2019).Image
Read 24 tweets
Jan 24
Que va-t-il se passer en Ukraine 🇺🇦 en 2026 ?

A partir de la situation actuelle et sans entrer dans l'éventualité de négociations/cessez le feu, voyons 6 scénarios de la poursuite de l'offensive russe, par rapport aux objectifs stratégiques de Moscou 🇷🇺.

🧵THREAD🧵1/12 ⬇️Image
D'abord, je vous invite à relire le point de l'année dernière sur le même sujet, qui s'est avéré proche de la réalité

Ce ne sont que des hypothèses à partir de la situation actuelle, je ne dis pas que ça va se passer comme ça.
Quels sont les objectifs stratégiques supposés de Moscou ? Ils restent similaires :

-> Capturer le Donbass
-> Prendre l'ensemble du territoire sur l'Oskil
-> Eventuellement prendre Zaporizhia

-> Pour cette année, atteindre Kramatorsk, Sloviansk et Zaporizhzhia, nettoyer les dernières poches de l'Oskil.
Read 12 tweets
Jan 23
The war in Ukraine 🇺🇦 has changed so much that the differencies on the maps are sometimes measured in 5, 10, or even 15km !

A number of pro-Russian 🇷🇺 accounts use a flag, a lone dead soldier as proof of control (or perhaps it's pro-Russian propaganda or even their own imagination).

The result? Completely absurd maps that does not show the reality on the ground, and when an error is admitted, a Ukrainian counter-offensive that came out of nowhere is presented.

1/8 ⬇️Image
Thanks to this map, ukraineviews.org, we can see the difference between the areas of control according to the main mappers of the war in Ukraine. The maps are roughly half pro-Russian and half pro-Ukrainian.

Let's take the example of a specific area of ​​the front, southeast of Pokrovsk:

According to pro-Russian mappers, the Russian army controls the villages of Bratske, Vidradne, Hai and Oleksivka.

According to most pro-Ukrainian mappers (some are neutral), these villages are either in the gray zone or controlled by the Ukrainians.Image
What are the proofs to suggest something ?

For Bratske : A single video (!) dated January 8th, showing two Russian soldiers with a flag. Is this irrefutable proof of a Russian presence? Does it mean the Russians control the village (i.e., they have forces there and are using it as a base for launching offensives)?

As Playfra explained here: x.com/Playfra0/statu…, barbed wire has been placed in multiple villages along the front line in this sector. This directly contradicts the control lines of some mappers.

For Vidradne, not a single video confirms the Russian claims. For Hai, there is a video of soldiers with the flag from two months ago. Since then, the barbed wire in front of the village has been reinforced, yet several maps show the village as Russian. In Oleksivka, we have plenty of videos of Russians from before 2026. Since then, nothing. Where is the evidence of effective control?Image
Read 8 tweets
Jan 21
The Dnipro campaign, from Davydiv Brid to Krinky 2022-2025 🇺🇦/🇷🇺 -- PART 2 --

After the defeat in Mykolaiv, ukrainian counter-offensives in Kherson

PART 2 : Analysis of Ukraine's counter-offensives, april-november 2022 and cross river operations

🧵THREAD🧵1/23 ⬇️
If you didn't read the first part, you can find it here, it is from february 24th 2022 to march 29th 2022.

After losing the Battle of Mykolaiv, Russian forces retreated behind new defensive lines along the border of Kherson Oblast.

Russian forces arriving from the Kyiv Front took considerably longer than the first Ukrainian brigades sent as reinforcements. These brigades brought reinforcements that pushed the Russians back behind the Inhulets River and established defensive lines in front of Mykolaiv.Image
Read 23 tweets

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