Clément Molin Profile picture
Sep 7, 2024 16 tweets 6 min read Read on X
While russian 🇷🇺 forces are nearing #Pokrovsk city in western Donetsk oblast, ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces managed to hold this advance.

At the same time, ukrainian forces are reinforcing their 3rd and 4th lines of defense.

🧵THREAD🧵1/16 ⬇️ Image
Here is how ukrainian defensive system was organized after Avdiivka fell in late february.

The 1st and 2nd line fell between june and august. If the first one was very useful, the second line was mainly abandonned. Image
This happened for one main reason, russian forces managed to push on foot along the railway. They first took Ocheretyne in late may, then Prohres in july, then Zhelanne at the end of july and Novohrodivka at the end of august. Image
After retreating during 2 months of summer, ukrainian brigades are now defending the 3rd line of defense stopping russian progress for more than a week.

At the same time, engeneering troops are upgrading the 4th line in front of Pokrovsk. Image
Based on ©Planet Imageries from yesterday, I found a lot of new defensive work for the last 10 days.

Here is a look north of Novohrodivka where the main ukrainian vulnerability is present : the railway. Image
Russian artillery and FABs air strikes are beginign to pound Pokrovsk and its neighbouring city Myrnohrad.

At the same time, new ditches are being dug between the twin cities. Image
Yesterday, russian strikes set the fields between the two cities on fire. The fact russian artillery is more present is a proof of ukrainian "controll" over the situation on Pokrovsk axis. Image
The 3rd line south of the city has been extended to the railway.

For the first time, the ditch does not stop before the railway treeline. This is exactly what cost the loss of Novohrodivka. Image
A bit north of this position, the 4th line is currently being upgraded at the southern entrance of Pokrovsk city. Image
Ukrainian forces also dug a long ditch all along the eastern entrance of Myrnohrad. This ditch can't stop infantry infiltration but it can stop russian mecanized assaults.

We can also see some artillery strikes. Image
On the T0504 Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka highway crossing, the ukrainian armed forces continued to dig new positions.

However, I'm still asking myself why they arn't finishing existing ditches like these ones... Image
Here is a map of where all the Planet images are located. I choose to show the direct Pokrovsk direction. The next image is from the town of Ukrainsk, south of here. Image
Now, the russian army is trying to move southwards in the direction of Kourakhove. Since a few days, they are trying to enter Ukrainsk from the south-east, while bypassing the town on the road to Hrynk. Image
Ukrainian forces are now trying to push back russian infantry from Selydove.

New ukrainian units helped holding back the russian advance for the last week on the Pokrovsk direction, while russian army is launching new attacks on the Kourakhove-Vulhedar direction.
According to @UAControlMap new units have been deployed to stop the advance :

2nd "Kara Dog" offensive brigade of the national guard, 93rd mechanized brigade.

And in the last month, 117th and 151st mechanized brigade, 14th NG, 71st Jager replaced other units. Image
Finally, after 2 months of Russian advances, (13km at least) in a highly fortified area, ukrainian brigades managed to hold the advance.

However, there are still large vulnerabilities on the defensive system : russian forces may advance along the railway to Pokrovsk and russian progress is still ongoing near Ukrainsk where the ukrainian are currently retreating from Nevelske.

16/16Image

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More from @clement_molin

Aug 18
This is why giving away Donbass cannot be an option for Ukraine 🇺🇦

Donald Trump 🇺🇸 will ask Zelensky to give away Donbass in exchange for a ceasefire with Russia 🇷🇺.

It would mean giving 9 cities and the main fortifications to Russia without a fight.

🧵THREAD🧵1/18⬇️Image
Giving away Donbass may seem to be the solution to calm Putin and reach a ceasefire, or even the peace between Ukraine and Russia.

However this cannot be accepted by any government of Ukraine for few simple reasons. Image
Here, we are mainly talking about the non-occupied part of Donetsk oblast, since the northern part of Luhansk oblast is mainly rural and has been occupied without big fights in spring 2022.

This is what Russia took in 30 month (after the last ukrainian counter-offensive). Image
Read 18 tweets
Aug 17
Et si... l'armée russe🇷🇺 lançait une offensive dans le nord-est de l'Ukraine🇺🇦 ?

Alors que les principaux combats se déroulent dans l'est, l'éventualité de la réouverture du front nord nous amène à analyser la région.

Fortifications, rivières, forêts...

🧵THREAD🧵1/24⬇️ Image
Depuis plusieurs semaines, le génie ukrainien renforce les positions défensives ukrainiennes autour de la ville de Soumy.

L'armée ukrainienne prépare la ville à une éventuelle opération de grande envergure. En rouge, les fortifications creusées en 2025. Image
En février 2022, plusieurs armées russes avaient pénétré les deux oblasts de Soumy et Tchernihiv dans le cadre de leur route vers Kyiv.

Il y a eu des batailles intéressante entre quelques rares unités ukrainiennes, des civils armés et des divisions entières de l'armée russe. Image
Read 26 tweets
Aug 17
Au Soudan 🇸🇩, l'immense bataille qui s'annonce

Au sud-est de la Libye, ravitaillés non-stop pendant 2 mois par les Emirats, des milliers d'hommes des FSR s'apprêtent à faire route vers le centre du Soudan.

Ils vont y rencontrer une importante force de l'armée.

🧵THREAD🧵1/17⬇️Image
D'après cet analyste, pas moins de 79 (!) avions liés aux Emirats-Arabes-Unis sont arrivés à l'aéroport de Koufrah au sud-est de la Libye depuis deux mois.

Le sud-est Libyen est devenu la base arrière principale des FSR.

Image
Le 10 juin dernier, plus de 250 pick-up des Forces de Soutiens Rapide (FSR) ont traversé la frontière libyenne pour s'emparer du triangle frontalier (Egypte-Soudan-Libye) dans l'Etat du Nord.

Cela a été rendu possible par un soutien des forces alliées à Khalifa Haftar. Image
Read 17 tweets
Aug 16
After bringing in reinforcements and being able to contain the russian 🇷🇺 breakthrough, ukrainian 🇺🇦 troops counter-attacked and managed to push back the russians.

Ukraine has taken back control of the "New Donbass Line"

🧵THREAD🧵1/15 ⬇️Image
It was not a secret anymore, as the excellent @Thorkill65 reported, ukrainian forces started counter-attacking two days ago.

Yesterday in the morning, they took back control of Zolotyi Kolodiaz and push back the russians behind the New Donbass Line. Image
A video published yesterday by Ukraine's 93rd mechanized brigade shows them engaging russian soldiers from the 132nd brigade in Vesele, ~12km from the previously known frontline.

In the process, they captured some russian soldiers and attacked them with UGV.
Read 16 tweets
Aug 14
Nouvelle construction cartographique :

-Guerre civile au Soudan 🇸🇩 : FAS 🟢/FSR🔴
-Guerre civile Somalienne 🇸🇴 : AS⚫️/Somaliland 🟠
-Guerre du Kivu 🇨🇩🇷🇼: FARDC 🟡/M23🔴/UPDF🟠
-Guerre Sahel 🇲🇱🇳🇬🇧🇫: AES🔴🟠-CEDEAO🔵 /JNIM, EIGS, ISWAP⚫️

🧵THREAD🧵1/13 ⬇️ Image
D'abord, commençons par une typologie des conflits. Il y a des dizaines de conflits en Afrique. Certains dormant, d'autres très actifs.

Prochaine étape ? Améliorer la cartographie de la Somalie et créer une cartographie libyenne et centre-africaine.
SOMALIE 🇸🇴

Carte approximative de la présence des djihadistes d'Al Shabab au sud du pays. Au nord, l'Etat séparatiste du Somaliland.

Il me manque les forces du Puntland et les djihadistes de l'Etat Islamique au nord. Image
Read 14 tweets
Aug 14
L'arrivée de renforts ukrainiens 🇺🇦 a permis de contenir la percée russe 🇷🇺, les ukrainiens lancent leurs propres contre-attaques, pour le moment localisées.

La menace reste cependant importante, on évoque aussi Lyman et Kupiansk. Carte de @Martinnkaaaa

🧵THREAD🧵1/18 ⬇️Image
L'arrivée de renforts, dont ceux du premier corps Azov a permis de contenir l'infiltration russe.

Il s'est révélé qu'elle était plus importante que prévue, ce qui contredit la minimisation faite par certains, notamment à cause de l'absence de preuves visuelles. Image
Ainsi, environ 200 russes tués et blessés, ça fait beaucoup pour une infiltration, ce qui confirme une certaine accumulation d'infanterie.

Maintenant commence le travail le plus difficile pour les forces ukrainiennes, contre-attaquer contre leurs propres fortifications.
Read 21 tweets

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