Clément Molin Profile picture
Sep 7, 2024 16 tweets 6 min read Read on X
While russian 🇷🇺 forces are nearing #Pokrovsk city in western Donetsk oblast, ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces managed to hold this advance.

At the same time, ukrainian forces are reinforcing their 3rd and 4th lines of defense.

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Here is how ukrainian defensive system was organized after Avdiivka fell in late february.

The 1st and 2nd line fell between june and august. If the first one was very useful, the second line was mainly abandonned. Image
This happened for one main reason, russian forces managed to push on foot along the railway. They first took Ocheretyne in late may, then Prohres in july, then Zhelanne at the end of july and Novohrodivka at the end of august. Image
After retreating during 2 months of summer, ukrainian brigades are now defending the 3rd line of defense stopping russian progress for more than a week.

At the same time, engeneering troops are upgrading the 4th line in front of Pokrovsk. Image
Based on ©Planet Imageries from yesterday, I found a lot of new defensive work for the last 10 days.

Here is a look north of Novohrodivka where the main ukrainian vulnerability is present : the railway. Image
Russian artillery and FABs air strikes are beginign to pound Pokrovsk and its neighbouring city Myrnohrad.

At the same time, new ditches are being dug between the twin cities. Image
Yesterday, russian strikes set the fields between the two cities on fire. The fact russian artillery is more present is a proof of ukrainian "controll" over the situation on Pokrovsk axis. Image
The 3rd line south of the city has been extended to the railway.

For the first time, the ditch does not stop before the railway treeline. This is exactly what cost the loss of Novohrodivka. Image
A bit north of this position, the 4th line is currently being upgraded at the southern entrance of Pokrovsk city. Image
Ukrainian forces also dug a long ditch all along the eastern entrance of Myrnohrad. This ditch can't stop infantry infiltration but it can stop russian mecanized assaults.

We can also see some artillery strikes. Image
On the T0504 Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka highway crossing, the ukrainian armed forces continued to dig new positions.

However, I'm still asking myself why they arn't finishing existing ditches like these ones... Image
Here is a map of where all the Planet images are located. I choose to show the direct Pokrovsk direction. The next image is from the town of Ukrainsk, south of here. Image
Now, the russian army is trying to move southwards in the direction of Kourakhove. Since a few days, they are trying to enter Ukrainsk from the south-east, while bypassing the town on the road to Hrynk. Image
Ukrainian forces are now trying to push back russian infantry from Selydove.

New ukrainian units helped holding back the russian advance for the last week on the Pokrovsk direction, while russian army is launching new attacks on the Kourakhove-Vulhedar direction.
According to @UAControlMap new units have been deployed to stop the advance :

2nd "Kara Dog" offensive brigade of the national guard, 93rd mechanized brigade.

And in the last month, 117th and 151st mechanized brigade, 14th NG, 71st Jager replaced other units. Image
Finally, after 2 months of Russian advances, (13km at least) in a highly fortified area, ukrainian brigades managed to hold the advance.

However, there are still large vulnerabilities on the defensive system : russian forces may advance along the railway to Pokrovsk and russian progress is still ongoing near Ukrainsk where the ukrainian are currently retreating from Nevelske.

16/16Image

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More from @clement_molin

Apr 9
Zelensky is right on this one, Ukraine 🇺🇦 has no interest in giving away the remaining part of Donbas

This area is the most fortified of Ukraine, there are some of the last big cities, 200 000 inhabitants and losing it would open the path for Kharkiv or Dnipro.

🧵1/5 ⬇️ Image
Here is a map showing all the barbed wire protecting cities, towns and villages from infiltration. Going though will be costly, and this is in Donbas. Image
The main city is Kramatorsk, but there are also additionnal cities such as Sloviansk or Dobropilla.

These cities are highly fortified, but there is also heavy industry, power plants and mines. Ukraine has no interest leaving the area. Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 8
L'opération israélo-américaine en Iran est-elle un échec ?

❌Le régime n'a pas été renversé
❌Le détroit d'Ormuz a été fermé
❌Les programmes balistiques et nucléaires n'ont pas été détruits
✅L'Iran a été affaiblie
✅Le volet militaire s'est plutôt bien déroulé

🧵THREAD🧵⬇️ Image
🔸L'objectif américain : le flou

L'objectif initial, martelé à de nombreuses reprises par Trump était de renverser le régime en détruisant les gardiens de la révolution et les moyens répressifs pour permettre une prise de pouvoir par la population.

Deux objectifs secondaires suivaient, celui de détruire le programme nucléaire et le programme balistique de l'Iran.

Pourtant, après le début de la guerre, le flou entretenu par un président américain utilisant ses propres déclarations pour parier de l'argent sur les marchés est resté total. L'objectif de rouvrir le détroit d'Ormuz ne figurait pas parmi les objectifs initiaux, et pourtant, c'était celui dominant dès la 2ème semaine des opérations.Image
🔸La stratégie iranienne :

L'Iran, qui s'y préparait depuis des décennies était très bien préparée (qui l'eut cru !). Frapper Israël n'avait pas d'intérêt, défendre l'espace aérien était impossible.

L'Iran a plutôt fait tout pour répandre la guerre le plus possible, en touchant avant tout les moyens de production économique (pétrole, gaz, tourisme, espaces aériens, industries) du Golfe (dont le détroit d'Ormuz) et les bases américaines.

Beaucoup annonçaient la mort de l'axe de résistance, bien que durement frappé, celui-ci est toujours là : les milices chiites d'Irak ont été très actives contre les bases américaines dans le pays, le Hezbollah a rejoins la guerre contre Israël et les Houthis du Yémen ont suffisamment menacés d'entrer en guerre, de fermer le détroit de Bab el Mandeb et de frapper les ports saoudiens occidentaux pour empêcher les Etats du Golfe d'entrer dans la guerre contre l'Iran.

En parallèle, l'Iran a bien camouflé ses lanceurs de missiles et de drones, permettant un lancement régulier (100 drones et 50 missiles par jours). L'enjeu est désormais de déterrer les milliers de lanceurs coincés dans les bases souterraines pour remplacer ceux perdus en surface.Image
Read 11 tweets
Apr 8
Overnight, Ukraine 🇺🇦 conducted yet another long range strike targeting russian 🇷🇺 assets in southern occupied Ukraine (total = + 400 strikes now !)

For you, I gathered here 20 different databases to better understand the russian invasion of Ukraine :

🧵THREAD🧵1/24 ⬇️Image
🔸Weekly russian progression since october 2023

Based on @Pouletvolant3 weekly updates, I gathered all those since Russia took the initiative, per week.

You can see two years and half of russian offensive in Ukraine, with a recent decrease. Image
🔸Monthly russian progression since october 2023

Based on @Pouletvolant3 monthly updates, I gathered all those since Russia took the initiative, per month.

You can see a traditionnal decrease in winter, with this one more important than usual. Image
Read 24 tweets
Apr 6
For the first time, in march 2026, Ukraine 🇺🇦 launched more long range drones into russian 🇷🇺 territory than Russia launched drones into Ukraine

Last night, Ukraine launched at least 283 drones south, mainly targeting the Novorossiisk port and hit a frigate.

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️ Image
After Primorsk and Ust-Luga oil terminals in Leningrad and Karelia oblast have been hit 5 days in a row last week, Ukraine attacked the Novorossiisk oil terminal.

A picture widely shared last night showed the port ablase, with intense anti-air activity. Image
For months and even years, Ukraine's indigenous long range drone and missile program has been improving.

Ukraine first launched 1 000 drones into Russia is august 2024, 3 000 in July 2025 and 7 000 in march 2026 ! Image
Read 20 tweets
Apr 4
100 km of kill zone, let's dive inside one of Ukraine's 🇺🇦 best defensive line

The Verkhnya Tersa line -with only 18 crossing over 100km- is one of the strongest and best prepared fortified line in Ukraine. Here is a detailed analysis :

🧵THREAD🧵1/18⬇️ Image
First "New Donbas Line" style prepared in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk region, this line is covered north of Novomykolaivka by 3 other lines, while only one before Novomykolaivka.

South of it, this line is the first defensive line, only protected by older line and barbed wire.Image
Here is a video from few months ago of the central part of this line, the one protecting Novomykolaivka.

This area of around 25 km is the most ready on the 100 km of that particular line. North of Novomykolaivka, barbed wire has not been installed, the frontline is too far.
Read 18 tweets
Apr 3
Il n'y a jamais eu autant de guerres 🪖 dans le monde qu'en 2026, avec 5 grands pôles conflictuels

En tout, plus de 50 Etats sont confrontés à la guerre, la plupart en Afrique et au Moyen-Orient. De nombreux conflits sont oubliés.

🧵THREAD🧵1/12 ⬇️Image
La plus grande guerre en cours est la guerre en Ukraine, en cours depuis 2014 avec une accélération en 2022.

Elle englobe aussi les frontières avec la Russie-Biélorussie et les territoires occupés par la Russie. En tout, plus de 600 000 hommes sont de chaque cpoté sur le front. Image
Un deuxième pôle conflictuel, plus traditionnel est présent au Moyen-Orient. La guerre en cours a précipité 9 Etats supplémentaires vers la guerre.

Les principaux conflits en dehors de la guerre avec l'Iran ont lieu en Palestine, au Liban, au Yémen, en Syrie et en Irak. Image
Read 13 tweets

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