Clément Molin Profile picture
Sep 7, 2024 16 tweets 6 min read Read on X
While russian 🇷🇺 forces are nearing #Pokrovsk city in western Donetsk oblast, ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces managed to hold this advance.

At the same time, ukrainian forces are reinforcing their 3rd and 4th lines of defense.

🧵THREAD🧵1/16 ⬇️ Image
Here is how ukrainian defensive system was organized after Avdiivka fell in late february.

The 1st and 2nd line fell between june and august. If the first one was very useful, the second line was mainly abandonned. Image
This happened for one main reason, russian forces managed to push on foot along the railway. They first took Ocheretyne in late may, then Prohres in july, then Zhelanne at the end of july and Novohrodivka at the end of august. Image
After retreating during 2 months of summer, ukrainian brigades are now defending the 3rd line of defense stopping russian progress for more than a week.

At the same time, engeneering troops are upgrading the 4th line in front of Pokrovsk. Image
Based on ©Planet Imageries from yesterday, I found a lot of new defensive work for the last 10 days.

Here is a look north of Novohrodivka where the main ukrainian vulnerability is present : the railway. Image
Russian artillery and FABs air strikes are beginign to pound Pokrovsk and its neighbouring city Myrnohrad.

At the same time, new ditches are being dug between the twin cities. Image
Yesterday, russian strikes set the fields between the two cities on fire. The fact russian artillery is more present is a proof of ukrainian "controll" over the situation on Pokrovsk axis. Image
The 3rd line south of the city has been extended to the railway.

For the first time, the ditch does not stop before the railway treeline. This is exactly what cost the loss of Novohrodivka. Image
A bit north of this position, the 4th line is currently being upgraded at the southern entrance of Pokrovsk city. Image
Ukrainian forces also dug a long ditch all along the eastern entrance of Myrnohrad. This ditch can't stop infantry infiltration but it can stop russian mecanized assaults.

We can also see some artillery strikes. Image
On the T0504 Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka highway crossing, the ukrainian armed forces continued to dig new positions.

However, I'm still asking myself why they arn't finishing existing ditches like these ones... Image
Here is a map of where all the Planet images are located. I choose to show the direct Pokrovsk direction. The next image is from the town of Ukrainsk, south of here. Image
Now, the russian army is trying to move southwards in the direction of Kourakhove. Since a few days, they are trying to enter Ukrainsk from the south-east, while bypassing the town on the road to Hrynk. Image
Ukrainian forces are now trying to push back russian infantry from Selydove.

New ukrainian units helped holding back the russian advance for the last week on the Pokrovsk direction, while russian army is launching new attacks on the Kourakhove-Vulhedar direction.
According to @UAControlMap new units have been deployed to stop the advance :

2nd "Kara Dog" offensive brigade of the national guard, 93rd mechanized brigade.

And in the last month, 117th and 151st mechanized brigade, 14th NG, 71st Jager replaced other units. Image
Finally, after 2 months of Russian advances, (13km at least) in a highly fortified area, ukrainian brigades managed to hold the advance.

However, there are still large vulnerabilities on the defensive system : russian forces may advance along the railway to Pokrovsk and russian progress is still ongoing near Ukrainsk where the ukrainian are currently retreating from Nevelske.

16/16Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Clément Molin

Clément Molin Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @clement_molin

Jan 24
Que va-t-il se passer en Ukraine 🇺🇦 en 2026 ?

A partir de la situation actuelle et sans entrer dans l'éventualité de négociations/cessez le feu, voyons 6 scénarios de la poursuite de l'offensive russe, par rapport aux objectifs stratégiques de Moscou 🇷🇺.

🧵THREAD🧵1/12 ⬇️Image
D'abord, je vous invite à relire le point de l'année dernière sur le même sujet, qui s'est avéré proche de la réalité

Ce ne sont que des hypothèses à partir de la situation actuelle, je ne dis pas que ça va se passer comme ça.
Quels sont les objectifs stratégiques supposés de Moscou ? Ils restent similaires :

-> Capturer le Donbass
-> Prendre l'ensemble du territoire sur l'Oskil
-> Eventuellement prendre Zaporizhia

-> Pour cette année, atteindre Kramatorsk, Sloviansk et Zaporizhzhia, nettoyer les dernières poches de l'Oskil.
Read 12 tweets
Jan 23
The war in Ukraine 🇺🇦 has changed so much that the differencies on the maps are sometimes measured in 5, 10, or even 15km !

A number of pro-Russian 🇷🇺 accounts use a flag, a lone dead soldier as proof of control (or perhaps it's pro-Russian propaganda or even their own imagination).

The result? Completely absurd maps that does not show the reality on the ground, and when an error is admitted, a Ukrainian counter-offensive that came out of nowhere is presented.

1/8 ⬇️Image
Thanks to this map, ukraineviews.org, we can see the difference between the areas of control according to the main mappers of the war in Ukraine. The maps are roughly half pro-Russian and half pro-Ukrainian.

Let's take the example of a specific area of ​​the front, southeast of Pokrovsk:

According to pro-Russian mappers, the Russian army controls the villages of Bratske, Vidradne, Hai and Oleksivka.

According to most pro-Ukrainian mappers (some are neutral), these villages are either in the gray zone or controlled by the Ukrainians.Image
What are the proofs to suggest something ?

For Bratske : A single video (!) dated January 8th, showing two Russian soldiers with a flag. Is this irrefutable proof of a Russian presence? Does it mean the Russians control the village (i.e., they have forces there and are using it as a base for launching offensives)?

As Playfra explained here: x.com/Playfra0/statu…, barbed wire has been placed in multiple villages along the front line in this sector. This directly contradicts the control lines of some mappers.

For Vidradne, not a single video confirms the Russian claims. For Hai, there is a video of soldiers with the flag from two months ago. Since then, the barbed wire in front of the village has been reinforced, yet several maps show the village as Russian. In Oleksivka, we have plenty of videos of Russians from before 2026. Since then, nothing. Where is the evidence of effective control?Image
Read 8 tweets
Jan 21
The Dnipro campaign, from Davydiv Brid to Krinky 2022-2025 🇺🇦/🇷🇺 -- PART 2 --

After the defeat in Mykolaiv, ukrainian counter-offensives in Kherson

PART 2 : Analysis of Ukraine's counter-offensives, april-november 2022 and cross river operations

🧵THREAD🧵1/23 ⬇️
If you didn't read the first part, you can find it here, it is from february 24th 2022 to march 29th 2022.

After losing the Battle of Mykolaiv, Russian forces retreated behind new defensive lines along the border of Kherson Oblast.

Russian forces arriving from the Kyiv Front took considerably longer than the first Ukrainian brigades sent as reinforcements. These brigades brought reinforcements that pushed the Russians back behind the Inhulets River and established defensive lines in front of Mykolaiv.Image
Read 23 tweets
Jan 18
Ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces continue to prepare important obstacle lines everywhere on the frontlines.

In the Donbas, we now have multiple "New Donbas Lines", as well as tens barbed wire lines, In Zaporizhzhia, there is now more and more of those barbed wire. Every progress will be costly.

▪️East and South of Kramatorsk, we can count numerous small obstacle lines. West of the city, we can count 3 large lines (the third one is being expanded north), each cut every 10km by a parallel line (I can count around 4 right now), forming small 10/5km rectangles.
▪️In the south, the Novomykolaivka line is now continuous, it is 100km long. East of it, it seems too late to build new lines, but ukrainian forces started to prepare multiple barbed wire lines west of their current defense, the Haichur river.
▪️North of the two defensive lines built in 2024 (the big lines looking south), we can see the first preparations for a third reinforced line that will probably join the Novomykolaivka and the Vilniansk ones, offering a retreat line north of Orikhiv.
▪️In the Pavlohrad direction, a third line in front of Vassylivka is being prepared. The first one is the unfinished line in front of Pokrovsk'e which continues in front of Prossiana, the second is the nearly finished one, which is the longest continuous line Ukraine has (it goes from Ternuvate to Kramatorsk, that's the big one going behind the main cities) and this third line is being prepared south of Vassylivka and west of the second.
▪️Despite the snow, a lot of construction is ongoing everywhere in Ukraine and new lines are getting ready. Every week Russia is waiting means more time and men to get through those lines.Image
Image
Image
Image
Here those "kill rectangles", the new portion we've been waiting for to connect Veliky Burluk line with Karkhiv one, the multiple barbed wire in front of Prossiana and a map of all Ukraine. Image
Image
Image
Image
Here a simplified view, with in yellow the main lines and in white secondary lines. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jan 18
En #Syrie 🇸🇾, les Forces Démocratiques Syriennes (dirigées par les Kurdes) se sont effondrées

Les milices arabes locales et l'armée syrienne sont entrées dans Raqqa et la région, avec une population syrienne en liesse.

Ce soir un cessez-le-feu est annoncé.

🧵THREAD🧵1/20⬇️Image
C'est presque un tiers du pays qui échappait encore au contrôle de Damas un an après la chute d'Assad.

Dans le nord-est syrien, les Forces Démocratiques Syriennes, dominées par les Kurdes (YPG/YPJ) contrôlaient un vaste territoire allant jusqu'à l'Euphrate et au delà. Image
Il faut dire que dans les 4 gouvernorats sous contrôle des FDS, tous sont à majorité arabe, en particulier ceux de Deir-Ez-Zor et Raqqa.

Les Kurdes, concentrés dans le corner du Nord-Est et à Kobané ne formaient qu'une minorité. Image
Read 20 tweets
Jan 16
The Dnipro campaign, from Kalanchak to Vosenssensk, 2022-2025 🇺🇦/🇷🇺

With this series of 42 historical maps, let's revisit one of the most unique military campaigns of the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦.

PART 1 : Analysis of Ukraine's southern front, february-march 2022

🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️
Feburary 23rd, 2022. More than 20 000 russian 🇷🇺 soldiers amass themselves on the border, facing around 500 ukrainian 🇺🇦 defenders.

Russian 58th, 49th and 22nd army are facing ~1 300 soldiers from the 58th motorized brigade (including 1 000 of whom are at the training ground of Oleshky sands).

This unit is the only one facing the russian invasion south of the Dnipro river. The closest reinforcements are in Mykolaiv (35th Marines), in Zaporizhia, Odessa or Mariupol (they are quite busy). A day before the invasion, 300 soldiers from the 58th motorized are repositioned to Henichesk and Chaplinka, to support the 137th Marine bataillon and border guards (200 soldiers in total).

Why so few men ? Because Ukraine thought Russia would attack in the Donbass, usually, 3 brigades should have been positionned in front of Crimea (the 93rd mechanized brigade was redeployed a week before to Kharkiv, and managed to save the city), only one was there and was not occupying border positions.Image
On the morning of the 24th, Russia launched massive air and missile strikes on ukrainian positions, radars, airport and air-defense.

The 58th motorized brigade moved from Oleshky sands to meet the russians while the 137th and border guards started fleeing to the bridges.

Russia strikes on to directions, with the 58th army attacking Henichesk and the 49th Kalanchak. Both armies were supported by numerous helicopters and planes.Image
Read 25 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(