Clément Molin Profile picture
Sep 7, 2024 16 tweets 6 min read Read on X
While russian 🇷🇺 forces are nearing #Pokrovsk city in western Donetsk oblast, ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces managed to hold this advance.

At the same time, ukrainian forces are reinforcing their 3rd and 4th lines of defense.

🧵THREAD🧵1/16 ⬇️ Image
Here is how ukrainian defensive system was organized after Avdiivka fell in late february.

The 1st and 2nd line fell between june and august. If the first one was very useful, the second line was mainly abandonned. Image
This happened for one main reason, russian forces managed to push on foot along the railway. They first took Ocheretyne in late may, then Prohres in july, then Zhelanne at the end of july and Novohrodivka at the end of august. Image
After retreating during 2 months of summer, ukrainian brigades are now defending the 3rd line of defense stopping russian progress for more than a week.

At the same time, engeneering troops are upgrading the 4th line in front of Pokrovsk. Image
Based on ©Planet Imageries from yesterday, I found a lot of new defensive work for the last 10 days.

Here is a look north of Novohrodivka where the main ukrainian vulnerability is present : the railway. Image
Russian artillery and FABs air strikes are beginign to pound Pokrovsk and its neighbouring city Myrnohrad.

At the same time, new ditches are being dug between the twin cities. Image
Yesterday, russian strikes set the fields between the two cities on fire. The fact russian artillery is more present is a proof of ukrainian "controll" over the situation on Pokrovsk axis. Image
The 3rd line south of the city has been extended to the railway.

For the first time, the ditch does not stop before the railway treeline. This is exactly what cost the loss of Novohrodivka. Image
A bit north of this position, the 4th line is currently being upgraded at the southern entrance of Pokrovsk city. Image
Ukrainian forces also dug a long ditch all along the eastern entrance of Myrnohrad. This ditch can't stop infantry infiltration but it can stop russian mecanized assaults.

We can also see some artillery strikes. Image
On the T0504 Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka highway crossing, the ukrainian armed forces continued to dig new positions.

However, I'm still asking myself why they arn't finishing existing ditches like these ones... Image
Here is a map of where all the Planet images are located. I choose to show the direct Pokrovsk direction. The next image is from the town of Ukrainsk, south of here. Image
Now, the russian army is trying to move southwards in the direction of Kourakhove. Since a few days, they are trying to enter Ukrainsk from the south-east, while bypassing the town on the road to Hrynk. Image
Ukrainian forces are now trying to push back russian infantry from Selydove.

New ukrainian units helped holding back the russian advance for the last week on the Pokrovsk direction, while russian army is launching new attacks on the Kourakhove-Vulhedar direction.
According to @UAControlMap new units have been deployed to stop the advance :

2nd "Kara Dog" offensive brigade of the national guard, 93rd mechanized brigade.

And in the last month, 117th and 151st mechanized brigade, 14th NG, 71st Jager replaced other units. Image
Finally, after 2 months of Russian advances, (13km at least) in a highly fortified area, ukrainian brigades managed to hold the advance.

However, there are still large vulnerabilities on the defensive system : russian forces may advance along the railway to Pokrovsk and russian progress is still ongoing near Ukrainsk where the ukrainian are currently retreating from Nevelske.

16/16Image

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More from @clement_molin

Mar 30
Pourquoi la contre-offensive ukrainienne 🇺🇦 de 2023 a-t-elle échoué ? Qui est le responsable de cet échec, Zelensky ou Zaloujny ?

Cette offensive qui n'a rien achevé porte une responsabilité partagée, ses stigmates sont aujourd'hui encore visibles.

🧵THREAD🧵1/17 ⬇️ Image
L'échec de l'offensive du sud en 2023 est avant tout l'échec de Volodimir Zelensky.

C'est lui et le pouvoir politique qui portent une grande part de responsabilité, en ayant voulu contredire ce que prévoyait le commandement militaire. Image
Le plan Zelensky :

▫️Contre-attaquer à Bakhmout
▫️Répartir ses troupes sur la ligne de front
▫️Attaquer à plusieurs endroits en même temps pour espérer un effondrement russe Image
Read 18 tweets
Mar 29
I now mapped 350 (!) ukrainian 🇺🇦 long range drone strikes into russian 🇷🇺 occupied territory

🔹19 strikes against air-defense
🔹25 strikes against radar
🔹21 strikes against planes
🔹10 strikes against trains
🔹9 strikes against rocket/missile launchers

🧵THREAD🧵1/8 ⬇️ Image
Thanks to the very good job done by @UAControlMap and @UkraineDailyUpd gathering data from geolocators like @99Dominik_ @moklasen @giK1893 and others...

I gathered all those long range strikes into occupied territory since the year started :
In total, 350 strikes, of which 260 strikes against warehouse, antennas, electric transformers and various unknown targets, a lot of which are houses and buildings that can eventually be filled with high value targets. Image
Read 8 tweets
Mar 27
Dams and bridge targeted, drone recon, airstrike campaign, mechanized assault, Russia 🇷🇺 is slowly starting its Sloviansk-Kramatorsk offensive

I mapped more than 4 000 airstrikes from the Donets river to Hulialpole this winter and analysed the troops movements :

🧵THREAD🧵1/20⬇️Image
For now more than 3 years, Russia has been preparing the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk battle.

It was the objective on defeating the Bakhmut-Soledar-Siversk line in 2023, it was the objective during the Donetsk suburbs battle (2024) and the Pokrovsk battle (2025). Image
For 2026, Russia hopes to make strategic advances to the twin cities, from the north (which implies securing Lyman), the south (implies securing Kostiantynivka, Drujkivka and Dobropilla) and the east.

This is exactly what the data I collected is showing : Image
Read 20 tweets
Mar 25
40% of russian 🇷🇺 oil exports are currently stopped after Ukraine 🇺🇦 attacked the Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiisk crude oil ports.

At the same time, the Druzhba pipeline remains closed and multiple refineries have been hit. This is a big blow to Russia.

🧵THREAD🧵1/15 ⬇️Image
With the war in Iran and the closure of the Hormuz Strait, the oil and gas prices have climbed.

Russia was hoping to capitalize on the situation to sell more oil and gas at higher prices, in order to rebuild its finances.

However, Ukraine acted to stop this.
These last few days, ukrainian long range drones and missiles targeted all 3 western ports used to export crude oil.

The first one is this one, Primorsk, 900km north of Ukraine and 50km from Finland.
Read 15 tweets
Mar 23
Since the start of the year, Ukraine 🇺🇦 dug more than 1 250 km of defenses in the rear areas of the frontline

The "kill zone grid" around the New Donbas Line is quickly expanding. Here is what you need to know and a detailed geographic analysis :

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️Image
This is the small town of Shakhtarske in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

You can see one line 5km east of the town, a second one 1km east, which is a ring, going all around, protecting it on all flanks, which will allow it to be a strongpoint. Image
In the south first, you can see here the new fortifications built this year in red. Ukrainian counter-attacks near Pokrovsk'e allowed them to reorganize the defenses of Pokrovsk'e and Novomykolaivka, both of which are now fortified strongholds. Image
Read 20 tweets
Mar 22
Le mois de mars 2026 pourrait être le pire mois de progression russe 🇷🇺 en Ukraine 🇺🇦 depuis le printemps 2024.

L'accélération promise par beaucoup d'analystes depuis 3 ans n'a toujours pas eu lieu et l'armée ukrainienne tient sans l'aide américaine.

🧵THREAD🧵1/22 ⬇️ Image
Alors que le lancement des offensives de printemps de l'armée russe se fait attendre (Ocheretyne au printemps 2024 et la route Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka en 2025), l'armée russe ne montre aucun signe d'une accélération de sa progression.

Source des données : @Pouletvolant3 ⬇️
La Russie 🇷🇺 occupe :

🔹19.5% du territoire ukrainien (contre 18.12% en janvier 2023)
🔸100% de la Crimée
🔸99.67% de l’oblast de Louhansk (98.39%)
🔸79.48% de l’oblast de Donetsk (57.16%)
🔸75.45% de l'oblast de Zaporijjia (72.52%)
🔸72.11% de l’oblast de Kherson (72.08%) Image
Read 22 tweets

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