Clément Molin Profile picture
Sep 7, 2024 16 tweets 6 min read Read on X
While russian 🇷🇺 forces are nearing #Pokrovsk city in western Donetsk oblast, ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces managed to hold this advance.

At the same time, ukrainian forces are reinforcing their 3rd and 4th lines of defense.

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Here is how ukrainian defensive system was organized after Avdiivka fell in late february.

The 1st and 2nd line fell between june and august. If the first one was very useful, the second line was mainly abandonned. Image
This happened for one main reason, russian forces managed to push on foot along the railway. They first took Ocheretyne in late may, then Prohres in july, then Zhelanne at the end of july and Novohrodivka at the end of august. Image
After retreating during 2 months of summer, ukrainian brigades are now defending the 3rd line of defense stopping russian progress for more than a week.

At the same time, engeneering troops are upgrading the 4th line in front of Pokrovsk. Image
Based on ©Planet Imageries from yesterday, I found a lot of new defensive work for the last 10 days.

Here is a look north of Novohrodivka where the main ukrainian vulnerability is present : the railway. Image
Russian artillery and FABs air strikes are beginign to pound Pokrovsk and its neighbouring city Myrnohrad.

At the same time, new ditches are being dug between the twin cities. Image
Yesterday, russian strikes set the fields between the two cities on fire. The fact russian artillery is more present is a proof of ukrainian "controll" over the situation on Pokrovsk axis. Image
The 3rd line south of the city has been extended to the railway.

For the first time, the ditch does not stop before the railway treeline. This is exactly what cost the loss of Novohrodivka. Image
A bit north of this position, the 4th line is currently being upgraded at the southern entrance of Pokrovsk city. Image
Ukrainian forces also dug a long ditch all along the eastern entrance of Myrnohrad. This ditch can't stop infantry infiltration but it can stop russian mecanized assaults.

We can also see some artillery strikes. Image
On the T0504 Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka highway crossing, the ukrainian armed forces continued to dig new positions.

However, I'm still asking myself why they arn't finishing existing ditches like these ones... Image
Here is a map of where all the Planet images are located. I choose to show the direct Pokrovsk direction. The next image is from the town of Ukrainsk, south of here. Image
Now, the russian army is trying to move southwards in the direction of Kourakhove. Since a few days, they are trying to enter Ukrainsk from the south-east, while bypassing the town on the road to Hrynk. Image
Ukrainian forces are now trying to push back russian infantry from Selydove.

New ukrainian units helped holding back the russian advance for the last week on the Pokrovsk direction, while russian army is launching new attacks on the Kourakhove-Vulhedar direction.
According to @UAControlMap new units have been deployed to stop the advance :

2nd "Kara Dog" offensive brigade of the national guard, 93rd mechanized brigade.

And in the last month, 117th and 151st mechanized brigade, 14th NG, 71st Jager replaced other units. Image
Finally, after 2 months of Russian advances, (13km at least) in a highly fortified area, ukrainian brigades managed to hold the advance.

However, there are still large vulnerabilities on the defensive system : russian forces may advance along the railway to Pokrovsk and russian progress is still ongoing near Ukrainsk where the ukrainian are currently retreating from Nevelske.

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More from @clement_molin

Mar 19
Since the US 🇺🇸 - Israeli 🇮🇱 operations in Iran 🇮🇷 started, more than 15 000 aistrikes happened, half by the IDF, half by the USAF

Since the first day, I made around 10 different maps and gathered multiple others. Here, you can see two zones of strikes :

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️Image
My very first map was made with preliminary informations, showing US/ISR strikes and Iranian retaliation on the first day. Image
Then, I started gathering the first informations from the first few days of war. You can see which areas are the most targeted in Iran at the time, mainly the big cities as well as the western part of the country. Image
Read 20 tweets
Mar 19
I put on a map a video showing 60 russian 🇷🇺 bodies on a 700 meter road along the Kazanny Torets river near the village of Boikivka.

This road is only 1 500 meters from the infamous Novotoretske village with the hundreds dead russian soldiers.

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Novotoretske is usually famous for this path between a barbed wire and dragon teeths.

There is only one hole in the barbed wire so the russian soldiers have been crossing in this only place, amouting nearly 60 dead here.

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Here is the video of the road (geoloc from @giK1893) and a video from the barbed wire (showing russian soldiers walking there), geoloc from @moklasen.
Read 9 tweets
Mar 18
En cartes, les 19 jours d'opérations israélo 🇮🇱 -américaines 🇺🇸 en Iran 🇮🇷

J'ai cartographié 250 villes/villages différents frappés en Iran, 235 au Liban et 170 au Moyen-Orient :

🧵THREAD🧵1/22 ⬇️Image
En tout, les Etats-Unis et Israël auraient réalisé plus de 15 000 frappes sur l'Iran, un chiffre qui reste à vérifier.

En tout, j'ai pu confirmer 1 450 frappes (min), avec une différence entre les villes ayant les données géolocalisées et celles avec le nombre de bombardements. Image
Au Liban, j'ai pu confirmer plus de 1 200 impacts de frappes israéliennes, en particulier dans le sud et à Beyrouth.

Au Moyen-Orient, j'ai pu compter plus de 650 impacts/frappes iraniennes, même si la réalité se trouve entre 3 000 et 3 700 frappes de ripostes. Image
Read 23 tweets
Mar 17
Ukraine 🇺🇦 continues its advance in the south, strikes on Russian rear lines, while the Russian offensive on Dobropilla begins: an update on the war in Ukraine:

The Ukrainian army's tactical successes should not hide the difficulty of the overall situation.

🧵THREAD🧵1/21 ⬇️ Image
Ukrainian forces continued their local counter-attacks south of Pokrovsk'e, reaching Novohryhorivka and probably Novoivanivka on the Velika Novosilka - Hulialpole road.

This does not mean they control the area. At the same time, russian forces continue to push westwards. Image
Ukrainian forces have a significant advantage in the area with the control of 3 tactical heights behind rivers, especially around Prossiana, Mezhova and Ternuvate.

Russian forces are in a difficult terrain without any town or road, which is making any movement difficult. Image
Read 21 tweets
Mar 16
Vitaly has very good points here on where the russian 🇷🇺 offensive will happen this year in Ukraine 🇺🇦

I agree 100% with his conclusions and I also gathered a lot of data during the last 2 weeks (not publicly) that are showing the same thing.

🧵THREAD🧵1/14 ⬇️ Image
I analysed the last two years of russian units deployments on the frontlines.

Here are the localisation of the russian brigades and divisions in the last two years in the frontline areas I cut (Could do that with the 6 grouping as well). You can see the frontline trends. Image
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Here you have the current localisation of russian brigades and divisions on the frontline.

These are good informations to keep in mind. Image
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Read 14 tweets
Mar 15
La Hongrie 🇭🇺 au tournant, deux immenses marches organisées à Budapest à 1 mois des élections :

Une marche pro-Orban ("pour la paix" et Anti-Zelenski) est organisée devant le Parlement.

Une marche pro-Magyar (opposition) organisée au Heros' Square.

🧵THREAD🧵1/⬇️ Image
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C'est un jour historique pour la Hongrie. A moins d'un mois des élections générales qui opposeront principalement Victor Orban (extrême droite, au pouvoir depuis 15 ans) et le leader de l'opposition Peter Magyar (droite conservatrice), deux grandes manifestations sont en cours. Image
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Des centaines de milliers de hongrois "anti-guerre", pro-Orban, anti-UE/Zelenski rassemblés devant le Parlement de Budapest.

On aperçoit surtout des personnes plus âgées, des militants pro-russes et anti-guerre. Rassemblés devant le parlement, ils sont environ 200 000. Image
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Read 8 tweets

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