Clément Molin Profile picture
Sep 7, 2024 16 tweets 6 min read Read on X
While russian 🇷🇺 forces are nearing #Pokrovsk city in western Donetsk oblast, ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces managed to hold this advance.

At the same time, ukrainian forces are reinforcing their 3rd and 4th lines of defense.

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Here is how ukrainian defensive system was organized after Avdiivka fell in late february.

The 1st and 2nd line fell between june and august. If the first one was very useful, the second line was mainly abandonned. Image
This happened for one main reason, russian forces managed to push on foot along the railway. They first took Ocheretyne in late may, then Prohres in july, then Zhelanne at the end of july and Novohrodivka at the end of august. Image
After retreating during 2 months of summer, ukrainian brigades are now defending the 3rd line of defense stopping russian progress for more than a week.

At the same time, engeneering troops are upgrading the 4th line in front of Pokrovsk. Image
Based on ©Planet Imageries from yesterday, I found a lot of new defensive work for the last 10 days.

Here is a look north of Novohrodivka where the main ukrainian vulnerability is present : the railway. Image
Russian artillery and FABs air strikes are beginign to pound Pokrovsk and its neighbouring city Myrnohrad.

At the same time, new ditches are being dug between the twin cities. Image
Yesterday, russian strikes set the fields between the two cities on fire. The fact russian artillery is more present is a proof of ukrainian "controll" over the situation on Pokrovsk axis. Image
The 3rd line south of the city has been extended to the railway.

For the first time, the ditch does not stop before the railway treeline. This is exactly what cost the loss of Novohrodivka. Image
A bit north of this position, the 4th line is currently being upgraded at the southern entrance of Pokrovsk city. Image
Ukrainian forces also dug a long ditch all along the eastern entrance of Myrnohrad. This ditch can't stop infantry infiltration but it can stop russian mecanized assaults.

We can also see some artillery strikes. Image
On the T0504 Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka highway crossing, the ukrainian armed forces continued to dig new positions.

However, I'm still asking myself why they arn't finishing existing ditches like these ones... Image
Here is a map of where all the Planet images are located. I choose to show the direct Pokrovsk direction. The next image is from the town of Ukrainsk, south of here. Image
Now, the russian army is trying to move southwards in the direction of Kourakhove. Since a few days, they are trying to enter Ukrainsk from the south-east, while bypassing the town on the road to Hrynk. Image
Ukrainian forces are now trying to push back russian infantry from Selydove.

New ukrainian units helped holding back the russian advance for the last week on the Pokrovsk direction, while russian army is launching new attacks on the Kourakhove-Vulhedar direction.
According to @UAControlMap new units have been deployed to stop the advance :

2nd "Kara Dog" offensive brigade of the national guard, 93rd mechanized brigade.

And in the last month, 117th and 151st mechanized brigade, 14th NG, 71st Jager replaced other units. Image
Finally, after 2 months of Russian advances, (13km at least) in a highly fortified area, ukrainian brigades managed to hold the advance.

However, there are still large vulnerabilities on the defensive system : russian forces may advance along the railway to Pokrovsk and russian progress is still ongoing near Ukrainsk where the ukrainian are currently retreating from Nevelske.

16/16Image

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More from @clement_molin

May 12
« It is normal that russian 🇷🇺 forces are not making big progress, they focus on destroying the Ukrainian 🇺🇦 army »

I disagree with this narrative. The Russian strategy is neither attrition nor an attempt at a breakthrough; it is a mixture of both.

🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️ Image
When failing to explain why an army isn't advancing, we try to look away, talking about a battle of attrition where the objective would be to destroy the opponent.

However, since 3 years, Russia has failed to destroy the ukrainian army. Image
To explain the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive in 2023, many have argued that the goal would be to undermine the Russian army by destroying its assets before attempting a breakthrough.

Of course it was false, the offensive just failed with russian army doing attrition Image
Read 26 tweets
May 11
Vers un accord de paix entre la RDC 🇨🇩 et le Rwanda 🇷🇼 sous l'égide des Etats-Unis 🇺🇸?

Alors que le conflit meurtrier entre le M23 soutenu par le Rwanda et la RDC se poursuit dans l'est du Congo, les Etats-Unis font une entrée en scène inattendue.

🧵THREAD🧵1/9 ⬇️ Image
Le ministre des affaires étrangères rwandais a dévoilé le 6 mai un calendrier pour le processus de paix avec la République démocratique du Congo (RDC), ajoutant que l’accord final devrait être signé à la mi-juin à Washington.

Pour autant, difficile d'évaluer l'impact sur le M23 Image
Un accord sur les minerais devrait être signé entre les Etats-Unis et les deux belligérants, prévoyant des facilités d'investissement d'entreprises américaines dans les mines congolaises et des projets d’infrastructure pour soutenir l’exploitation minière dans les deux pays, y compris la transformation des minerais au Rwanda.
Read 9 tweets
May 10
Hungarian army 🇭🇺 display in the park of my ERASMUS university.

Despite this show of force, hungarian army remains weak and unprepared.

Orban's regime is hoping for a ukrainian collapse allowing him to annex Zakarpatia oblast in western Ukraine.

🧵THREAD🧵1/9 ⬇️ Image
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This oblast is home to some ethnic hungarians. Orbans thinks they would support an hungarian annexation because he thinks they are persecuted.

Some would, but majority don't care.
I already visited this particular region, which is home to Ruthenes, Ukrainians, Romanians, Poles and Hungarians. It is very diverse and isolated from the main part of Ukraine.

However, i could still see numerous ukrainian flags. Image
Read 9 tweets
May 7
Penser la diplomatie 🇫🇷

La visite du président syrien Ahmed Al Charaa est instrumentalisée. L'on y dénonce, à des fins politiques, l'accueil d'un ancien djihadiste à l'Elysée.

Mais du point de vue diplomatique, qu'est-ce qui justifie cet accueil ?

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️ Image
C'est une constance, la France a rejeté depuis 2011, le régime sanguinaire de Bachar Al Assad, soutenant une société civile et une opposition en exil et refusant la compromission avec Al Assad.

Pour beaucoup, Assad fut le protecteur des minorités, ce qui en réalité est faux.
Des personnalités politiques françaises, qui n'ont pas sourcillées pendant les 14 ans d'envoi des jeunes alaouites, chrétiens, druzes et autres au front pour massacrer des sunnites (rebelles ou djihadistes) dans la guerre civile se réveillent finalement quand le régime tombe. Image
Read 20 tweets
May 5
Russian 🇷🇺 forces managed to breakthrough the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka line and start fightings inside the trenches of the line.

For the first time, russian forces can hope reaching Kostiantynivka from the south after pushing back ukrainians 🇺🇦 from Toretsk.

🧵THREAD🧵1/17 ⬇️ Image
On this long video, a ukrainian VAB 🇫🇷🇺🇦 is targeted at the entrance of a large trench network with few dugouts.
Ukrainian soldiers jump in and start fighting against russian soldiers who took control of the fortified position, they also face constant drone attacks.
As I already said many times, those kinds of positions are not suitable for defense, in the open with not enough dugout positions, despite stong fondations (woods).
Russian observation drones can see everything and FPV drones can strike soldiers in the open. Image
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Read 17 tweets
May 4
Vers une victoire russe 🇷🇺 sur l'Oskil en 2025 ?

Dans l'est de l'Ukraine 🇺🇦, après 2 ans et demi de présence ukrainienne à l'est de l'Oskil, l'armée russe tente d'isoler le dispositif ukrainien.

Analyse d'un objectif stratégique pour Moscou.

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Sur le front de Dvorichna, l'armée russe est parvenue à traverser l'Oskil en plusieurs points et tente d'agrandir la tête de pont (infanterie uniquement) vers l'ouest et le nord, pour la connecter à la frontière russe.

Une zone qui présente un danger de plus en plus important. Image
Au sud, la capture de Dvorichna permettra un point de franchissement sur l'Oskil.

De manière générale, l'armée russe pousse vers le sud est, avec comme objectif final l'encerclement de Koupiansk, point clé de la région libéré en septembre 2022. Image
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Read 17 tweets

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