The Supreme Court has concluded hearing on the appeal through which the National Assembly, the Office of the Attorney General and the CS Treasury are seeking reinstatement of the Finance Act 2023 following nullification by the Court of Appeal.
· The Supreme Court will deliver its Judgement on notice (meaning the apex court is not binding itself on a timeline within which it will deliver its judgement, we now just wait for a notice).
· If you missed my summary of highlights from day 1, see quoted 🧵 for details.
Key take away points from today below.
A 🧵
First, my take
This matter seems to be drilling down to a few questions:
· Does the judgement on Petition No.5/2017 British American Tobacco Kenya, PLC vs CS Ministry of Health & 2 others & the prescribed principles of public participation provide adequate framework for public participation in Kenya & if yes, did Finance Act 2023 adhere to this?
· Did the Court of Appeal in nullifying Finance Act 2023 contradict itself when compared to its judgement on Pevans East Africa Limited & Another vs. Chairman, Betting Control & Licensing Board & 7 Others?
Mahat Somane tabled a very interesting argument:
· Each clause of the Finance Bill (& the Appropriations Bill) is subjected to a vote on the floor of the House.
· So the bill should be looked at with each clause standing on its own as a provision of the law
· The application of severability (i.e, if some provisions are deemed unconstitutional, others should still be allowed to be in force) should apply
· The Law Society of Kenya has countered the plea from former Attorney General, Githu Muigai, acting on behalf of the government, challenging the Court of Appeal's determination on the doctrine of mootness regarding the Affordable Housing Levy
· The Society argues the High Court was well within its mandate to throw out the Housing Levy
· The argument by the government of Kenya that the question of public participation & its underlying principles were exhaustively handled in Petition No.5/2017 British American Tobacco Kenya, PLC vs CS Ministry of Health & 2 others was challenged
· Specifically, the view that principle viii providing that "an allegation of lack of public participation does not automatically vitiate the process. The allegations must be considered within the peculiar circumstances of each case: the mode, degree, scope and extent of public participation is to be determined on a case to case basis" were challenged to the extent that they are static on the question of public participation
Still on public participation:
· The question of Petition No.5/2017 British American Tobacco Kenya, PLC vs CS Ministry of Health & 2 others as well as Pevans East Africa Limited & Another vs. Chairman, Betting Control & Licensing Board & 7 Others
· The argument has been levelled that the circumstances differ (when compared to Petition No.5/2017 British American Tobacco Kenya, PLC vs CS Ministry of Health & 2 others) & in no way has the Court of Appeal contradicted itself in nullifying Finance Act 2023 (when compared to Pevans East Africa Limited & Another vs. Chairman, Betting Control & Licensing Board & 7 Others)
Kiragu Kimani asked:
· Suppose we opted for the route that post-Committee stage amendments should then be subjected to public participation, should it then be limited to only those who submitted memoranda? Should it again be open to everyone?
· Is the argument of the respondents a case of elevating direct public participation over indirect public participation & if yes, what does that mean for Article 94(1) of the Constitution?
· The argument that nullification of Finance Act 2023 threatens delivery of government services was challenged
· "Public service outside the provisions of law is not service at all. When legislation is adopted outside the confines of law, it is fit for annulment"
The question of the Appropriations Bill/Act the fact that it should contain revenue estimates per Article 221(1) of the Constitution also stood out
Finally,
The Supreme Court is expected to deliver its judgement on notice.
Ends!
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This week has been heavy from a Public Finance standpoint.
Here's where things stand as of now:
Finance Bill 2025
· Finance Bill 2025 sailed through the Committee of the Whole House
· The next thing we expect to see is the Vellum (cleaned up version following the clause-by-clause amendments) after which it heads for the President's assent
· Remember June 30th is the sunset date by which it must be signed because virtually all proposed measures, except just two, are effective July 1st
· The Bill tabled by National Treasury targeted Kes 30.0 billion worth of additional revenue in 2025/26, by the time the National Assembly Finance & Planning Committee was tabling its report with proposed amendments, this had been scaled down to Kes 24.0 billion
· Total revenue target for 2025/26 is Kes 3.321 trillion
1/4
Appropriation Bill 2025
· Appropriation Bill 2025 sailed through the Committee of the Whole House in a pretty fast fashion
· Just like Finance Bill, the next thing we expect to see is the Vellum (cleaned up version following the clause-by-clause amendments) after which it heads for the President's assent
· Again just like Finance Bill, June 30th is the sunset date by which it must be signed because the financial year 2025/26 kicks off on July 1st & there'll be spending
· Size of 2025/26 budget is Kes 4.291 trillion, deficit is projected at Kes 933.2 billion (4.85% of GDP) with GOK looking to borrow Kes 635.5 billion from the domestic market & Kes 287.7 billion from the external market
2/4
Mediated Division of Revenue Bill 2025
· The National Assembly adopted the Mediation Committee on the Division of Revenue Bill 2025
· This means the National Assembly approved the mediated version of the Division of Revenue Bill 2025
· As a result, the 2025/26 Equitable Share allocation for counties will now be Kes 415.0 billion
· It's a compromise, higher than the Kes 405.0 billion that the National Assembly had proposed & lower than the Kes 460.0 billion that the Senate had proposed
· This compromise pushed the 2025/26 higher than projected during the presentation of the Budget Speech on June 12th
· The documents were tabled in the House on Wednesday just before the Finance Bill '25 Committee of the Whole House (see quoted tweet)
· On the whole, there's a Kes 25.03 billion increase in the size of the budget (i.e. Supp. III vs Supp. II), if you compare Supp. III vs the baseline we can see a Kes 22.44 billion increase
· If you then do the math, 2024/25 budget size now stands at Kes 4.032 trillion
· Ordinary revenue target for 2024/25 have been revised downward again, the target is now Kes 2.496 trillion, down from Kes 2.581 trillion
1/4
Who are the biggest winners in Supp. Budget III 2024/25?
The top 5:
· State House - The budget is earmarked for a 44.21% increase (+ Kes 3.698 billion).
National Treasury says this increase is necessitated by the need to cater for shortfall on operations & maintenance expenses
· State Dept. for Social Protection - The budget is earmarked for a 35.27% increase (+ Kes 12.46 billion).
National Treasury says this increase is necessitated by the need for additional funds for the Inua Jamii (Cash Transfer) Programme
· State Dept. for Mining - The budget is earmarked for a 19.65% increase (+ Kes 312.3 million)
National Treasury says this increase is necessitated by additional Appropriations in Aid & surrender of excess provision for compensation of employees.
· State Dept. for ICT & Digital Economy - The budget is earmarked for an 18.20% increase (+ Kes 2.19 billion)
National Treasury says this increase is necessitated by an increase of Capital expenditure
· State Dept. for Water & Sanitation - The budget is earmarked for an 11.58% increase (+ Kes 3.45 billion)
National Treasury says that this increase is necessitated by adjustment on Development partner-funded projects
2/4
Who are the biggest losers in Supp. Budget III?
The biggest 5 proposed budget cuts:
· State Dept. for Economic Planning - The budget is earmarked for a 16.15% cut ( - Kes 12.03 billion)
National Treasury says this cut is on account of reduction in provision for personnel emoluments to reflect the actual requirement, reallocation of funds, while the change in Capital expenditure is on account of rationalisation of expenditure due to low absorption
· Office of the Controller of Budget - The budget is earmarked for a 9.94% cut ( - Kes 70.0 million)
National Treasury says the cut is on account of realignment of the budget to cater for operations & maintenance, reallocation of funds, and reduction in provision for personnel emoluments to reflect the actual requirement
· State Dept. for Blue Economy & Fisheries - The budget is earmarked for a 9.45% cut ( - Kes 1.21 billion)
National Treasury says this cut is on account of rationalisation of the Personnel Emolument budgetary provision to reflect the State Department's actual PE requirement & austerity measures affecting Capital expenditures
· State Dept. for Youth & Creative Economy - The budget is earmarked for an 8.64% cut ( - Kes 307.8 million
National Treasury says the slash is on account of reduction of donor commitments & a reduction in personnel emoluments
· State Dept. for Irrigation - The budget is earmarked for a 5.7% cut ( - Kes 1.188 billion)
National Treasury says the cut has been necessitated by the demands for budget rationalisation
3/4
The Report by the National Assembly's Finance & Planning Committee on Bill No.19/2025 (Finance Bill 2025) is finally out!
A short 🧵on my key highlights.
The starting point is that this Report was tabled by the Committee Chairman, @KuriaKimaniMP, on Thursday last week just before the CS National Treasury took the floor to pronounce the 2025/26 Budget Highlights.
My biggest highlight from the Committee's report is the proposal that the House drops the Finance Bill 2025 proposal seeking to amend Section 42 of the Tax Procedures Act to allow the Commissioner of the Kenya Revenue Authority to issue an agency notice where a taxpayer has appealed against an assessment specified in a decision of the Tax Appeals Tribunal or court of law.
The National Treasury Cabinet Secretary has presented the highlights of Kenya's Budget 2025/26 before the National Assembly.
Just like Finance Bill '25, I found it to be lean on scope but relatively heavy on technicality unlike what we are used to.
So what stood out for me?
A 🧵
First, there have been adjustment in the numbers at the macros level.
Musings:
· The size of the budget has been bumped up to Kes 4.291 trillion from the previous Kes 4.239 trillion
· So the size of the budget is Kes 52.0 billion larger than earlier projected
· Total revenue now pegged at Kes 3.321 trillion, marginally higher than the earlier projected Kes 3.316 trillion
· Important to observe at this point that the Budget & Appropriations Committee had recommended that the projected revenue be at Kes 3.328 trillion
· Deficit is now projected at Kes 923.2 billion (4.8% of GDP), higher than the earlier projected Kes 876.1 billion (4.5% of GDP)
· GOK will come in much stronger than earlier projected into the domestic market. It now looks to borrow Kes 635.5 billion, earlier projection was Kes 591.9 billion
· GOK will tap just a little more than earlier projected into the external market. It now looks to borrow Kes 287.7 billion, earlier projection was Kes 284.2 billion
On Finance Bill 2025:
· It is targeting Kes 30.0 billion worth of additional revenue in 2025/26
· The proposed radical clean up of the 1st & 2nd Schedules of the VAT Act are not going anywhere
The @WorldBankKenya has published the latest edition of Public Finance Review for Kenya & I think it makes for an important read, especially coming right in the middle of conversations on Finance Bill 2025 & Budget Estimates 2025/26.
My key take aways.
A 🧵
The Bank argues that Kenya bloated public sector wage bill is hinged largely on its allowances system.
The Bank says:
· When Kenyan civil servants from various job groups undertake an official overseas trip to the United States, the current government rates lead to an average expenditure of US$513.0/day per person
· If the per diem & accommodation rates are standardised across all job groups using rates from Ministries, Departments & Agencies, the average daily cost per officer drops to US$326.0, a saving of US$187.0/day
· Alternatively, if the rates are standardised across all job groups using the UNDP rate, the average daily cost per officer is US$460.0, a saving of US$53.0 per day
The Bank is recommending:
· Reduction of the public sector's travel-related budget, estimated at Kes 19.6 billion, by 50.0%
· A hiring freeze for two years, conducting a skills audit, & redeploying existing staff across the public service
· Phase out the market adjustment component of current remunerative allowance practice & instead incorporate the appropriate compensation for skills into the basic salary
The last time we saw Finance Bill close to this lean in pages was in 2021 (47 pages) & that was coming on the back of two COVID-19 induced Tax Laws legislations.
Some key highlights from my reading.
A 🧵
First thing to flag is that GOK has done away with the traditional three tiered effective dates.
· Finance Bill 2025 doesn't have any provisions slated for September 1st as the effective dates
· We have only two provisions kicked down to take effect on Jan 1st, 2026, all the remaining 57 clauses are effective July 1st, 2025
Musings
· Granted this Finance Bill is much leaner than what we've seen in the recent past but this tells us GOK is keen on its cashflows at the earliest possible
· If you want to make sense of this, the latest Cabinet Despatch & the adjustments to expenditure & the 2025/26 fiscal deficit are the guide
There's some heavy clean up on the VAT side.
The Bill proposes to expunge the following from the Schedule of VAT Zero Rated products & move them to the VAT Exempt schedule:
· Inputs or raw materials (either produced locally or imported) supplied to pharmaceutical manufacturers in Kenya for manufacturing medicaments
· Transportation of sugarcane from farms to milling factories
· The supply of locally assembled & manufactured mobile phones
· The supply of electric bicycles
· The supply of solar and lithium ion batteries
· Inputs or raw materials locally purchased or imported for the manufacture of animal feeds
Musings:
· Zero Rating means that businesses have the ability to reclaim the VAT paid on purchases of supplies & ideally this reduces their costs
· So expunging the products from Zero Rating means consumers will likely be saddled with the impact of that cost
· A lot of this has been proposed in the past & GOK back-pedalled after backlash (like with standard rating VAT on electric mobility, lithium batteries & animal feeds inputs)
· Key thing to remember here is that Zero-rated goods are not taxed during sale but producers can claim a credit for the VAT paid on inputs. Exempt goods are not taxed either, however producers cannot get a credit for the VAT paid on inputs