Artur Rehi Profile picture
Sep 12, 2024 11 tweets 5 min read Read on X
After the loud announcement of the Russian counteroffensive in the Kursk region, the news from the Russian side has died down. The Russian Defense Ministry reports "the destruction of 12,000 Ukrainian soldiers," but there is no video, no photos, no statements about regaining
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control over major settlements. Putin gave the order to recapture the Kursk region by October 1, but the counteroffensive is stalling. Ukrainian soldiers write in Telegram that heavy fighting is underway, not without losses, but the counterattack was expected and
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the Russians were expected. Russia has now switched from bombing to frontal attacks, which allows for greater resource losses. Ukraine expected and prepared for this step and to inflict serious damage on the advancing troops. Apparently, Syrskyi plan has begun to work and
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Russia has transferred resources to the Kursk region and will transfer more to fulfill Putin's decree. If this becomes a priority for the Russian army, then we can expect a decrease in the intensity of Russia's offensive in the Donetsk region. The offensive on Pokrovsk has
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already started to stall, but this is compared to August. Russia is still storming there every day and there are very difficult battles. Autumn has come and soon it will be more difficult to conduct military operations. Especially to conduct an offensive. If Russia does
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not recapture the Kursk region before the rains start, it will be more difficult for it to do so. It will be even more difficult to do so if Ukraine starts to strike deep into Russia. Apparently, Great Britain is lifting restrictions on the use of Storm Shadow deep into
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Russian territory and there is talk of the United States making the same decision. Most likely, the missiles supplied will have a range of about 250 kilometers, because this is an export version, but within this radius there are many juicy targets for Ukrainian missiles.
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Logistics, airfields in Rostov-on-Don, Voronezh, Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk, troop columns - this is only a small list of targets that Ukraine can hit first. If talk of lifting restrictions turns out to be true, it will be another problem added to the huge list of difficulties
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in Russia. The red lines are over, the nuclear scarecrow does not work, the economy is at the limit and is about to collapse, resources are depleted. The equipment is running out, but there are still people. But in 2 years there is no longer a professional army and the army
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consists of cripples, alcoholics, criminals and old men with conscripts. But this army also causes colossal damage. It is precisely because of this composition that it has no morality and leaves behind a trail of war crimes and scorched earth. Although the "professional
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army" in Russia is not much different from this. But the crisis in the Russian army and management is growing. This is a downward spiral that cannot be stopped and sooner or later Russia will fall into a free fall to the bottom.
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More from @ArturRehi

Oct 15
In Russia, a new wave of hatred toward Chechens is flaring up - and this time, the reason seems surprisingly harmless: a Central Bank vote to choose the image for a new 500-ruble banknote. Yet another attempt by the authorities to distract from economic and social problems
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has unexpectedly exposed deep-seated interethnic tensions that have been smoldering in the country for decades. Two options emerged as frontrunners in the online voting: Mount Elbrus and the Grozny City business center - a symbol of the modern Chechen capital. In the region
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itself, the campaign has taken on the character of a national project: authorities, schools, hospitals, and military units have been organized to participate. The process is personally supervised by Ramzan Kadyrov and his administration. This activity provoked a stormy
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Read 12 tweets
Oct 14
The Russian Ministry of Defense has drafted a bill to involve Russian citizens in the Armed Forces reserve in performing tasks during peacetime, RBC reports, citing a copy of the document. The government approved the initiative on October 13, according to a source familiar
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with the matter. The bill proposes that reservists can be called up for special training sessions by presidential decree. These “special sessions” are described as military gatherings aimed at fulfilling specific defense-related tasks in cases of armed conflict,
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counterterrorist operations, or the deployment of forces abroad. According to Andrei Kartapolov, head of the State Duma Defense Committee, the bill expands the ability to use reservists in various circumstances. He noted that it introduces broad legal definitions that would
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Read 9 tweets
Oct 13
Russian Uralvagonzavod - the country’s main manufacturer of railway cars and also tanks (since Soviet times, Russia has had a tradition of dual-purpose factories, where the producer of metal buckets might also make artillery shells) - is switching its civilian workforce
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to a four-day workweek. The change will affect only employees in the railcar production division. They were offered to transfer to “other divisions with active orders,” since the situation is quite different in tank production. Uralvagonzavod, part of the Rostec corporation,
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is Russia’s largest tank manufacturer. After the start of the war, the plant switched to a three-shift schedule, and since August 2022 has been operating around the clock. Russia’s economy is increasingly shifting to a war footing, while its civilian sector is rapidly
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Read 7 tweets
Oct 10
Another sign of growing problems in the Russian economy. Next year, Russia will cut spending on the production and repair of aircraft by one and a half times — from 139.6 billion to 85.7 billion rubles. This was reported by The Moscow Times. “The Russian government plans
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to reduce funding for the federal project ‘Production of Aircraft and Helicopters’ by 1.6 times in 2026 - from 139.6 billion to 85.7 billion rubles,” the report says. According to the draft of Russia’s new budget for 2026–2028, spending will also decrease in 2027 compared to
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previously planned figures - from 109.7 billion to 86.9 billion rubles (a 21% drop). Funding is expected to slightly increase only in 2028 - to 89.3 billion rubles. The publication notes that the most significant cuts will affect state support for Russian airlines renewing
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Read 9 tweets
Oct 6
Europe still does not fully understand the threat posed by Russia. There has been growing talk of a possible attack on the Baltic states, but in reality, this threat is minimal - and the real danger lies elsewhere. Putin has found a grey zone, and so far it brings far
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greater benefits than any ground operation could. NATO has spent its entire existence preparing for a conventional war with infantry and tanks, but the main threat today is hybrid warfare. There is no need to launch missiles to paralyze airports or completely collapse
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a country's banking or energy system - cyberwarfare is a reality, not a fantasy from Hollywood films. Putin’s goal is to sow discord within Western societies, and hybrid war offers a wide range of tools to achieve that. His main target remains Ukraine, and he is doing
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Read 18 tweets
Oct 3
The Russians carried out the most massive attack on Ukraine’s gas production infrastructure to date, according to Serhiy Koretskyi, head of the Naftogaz Group. “It was a combined strike involving 35 missiles, including a significant number of ballistic ones, and 60 drones.
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Some were shot down, unfortunately not all,” he wrote on Facebook. He specified that the Russians once again targeted Ukraine’s gas extraction facilities in the Kharkiv and Poltava regions. As a result of the attack, a significant portion of the facilities was damaged, with
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some suffering critical destruction, Koretskyi reported. Company specialists, together with Ukraine’s State Emergency Service and other agencies, are working at the scene, and efforts to eliminate the consequences of the strike are ongoing. “This is the most massive attack
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Read 6 tweets

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