After the loud announcement of the Russian counteroffensive in the Kursk region, the news from the Russian side has died down. The Russian Defense Ministry reports "the destruction of 12,000 Ukrainian soldiers," but there is no video, no photos, no statements about regaining
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control over major settlements. Putin gave the order to recapture the Kursk region by October 1, but the counteroffensive is stalling. Ukrainian soldiers write in Telegram that heavy fighting is underway, not without losses, but the counterattack was expected and
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the Russians were expected. Russia has now switched from bombing to frontal attacks, which allows for greater resource losses. Ukraine expected and prepared for this step and to inflict serious damage on the advancing troops. Apparently, Syrskyi plan has begun to work and
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Russia has transferred resources to the Kursk region and will transfer more to fulfill Putin's decree. If this becomes a priority for the Russian army, then we can expect a decrease in the intensity of Russia's offensive in the Donetsk region. The offensive on Pokrovsk has
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already started to stall, but this is compared to August. Russia is still storming there every day and there are very difficult battles. Autumn has come and soon it will be more difficult to conduct military operations. Especially to conduct an offensive. If Russia does
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not recapture the Kursk region before the rains start, it will be more difficult for it to do so. It will be even more difficult to do so if Ukraine starts to strike deep into Russia. Apparently, Great Britain is lifting restrictions on the use of Storm Shadow deep into
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Russian territory and there is talk of the United States making the same decision. Most likely, the missiles supplied will have a range of about 250 kilometers, because this is an export version, but within this radius there are many juicy targets for Ukrainian missiles.
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Logistics, airfields in Rostov-on-Don, Voronezh, Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk, troop columns - this is only a small list of targets that Ukraine can hit first. If talk of lifting restrictions turns out to be true, it will be another problem added to the huge list of difficulties
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in Russia. The red lines are over, the nuclear scarecrow does not work, the economy is at the limit and is about to collapse, resources are depleted. The equipment is running out, but there are still people. But in 2 years there is no longer a professional army and the army
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consists of cripples, alcoholics, criminals and old men with conscripts. But this army also causes colossal damage. It is precisely because of this composition that it has no morality and leaves behind a trail of war crimes and scorched earth. Although the "professional
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army" in Russia is not much different from this. But the crisis in the Russian army and management is growing. This is a downward spiral that cannot be stopped and sooner or later Russia will fall into a free fall to the bottom.
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Russia has once again staged a media stunt with the story about a drone attack on Putin’s residence. In the Novgorod region no one heard air raid sirens, yet according to Lavrov, 91 drones were launched from Ukraine and all of
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them were shot down. There is not a single video and not a single piece of evidence. Why is this needed? This entire performance was staged specifically for Trump. Putin personally called the American president and told him about it. Russia has long convinced Trump that it
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is Zelensky together with the “warmongering shadow government of Europe” who allegedly do not want the war to end. This show was played out so that Ukraine would be blamed for the failure of peace talks. Unfortunately, with Trump, this works. Meanwhile, Lavrov declares that
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Daily strikes by Ukrainian drones and missiles on Russian oil depots, warehouses and refineries have created an image in the information space of a “leaky” Russian air defense system. This image sharply contrasts with what Russian propaganda had been instilling in its audience🧵
for decades, namely the idea of an “impenetrable shield” capable, according to Defense Minister Andrey Belousov, of intercepting up to 97 percent of targets. The reality of a full scale war has proven far more complex. Ukraine has not managed to destroy Russian air defense as a
single integrated system, but it has succeeded in exposing its real limits. As analysis by the Royal United Services Institute shows, the strength of Russian air defense depends not only on missiles and radars, but also on industry, logistics and the ability to replenish losses
Seven German journalism students tracked Russian-crewed freighters lurking off the Dutch and German coast and connected them to drone swarms over military bases. Using public tracking tools, their own drones and even driving 2500 kilometers while following a ship, they produced🧵
a far more coherent picture of the Germany and Netherlands drone mystery than months of official hand-wringing and coordinated stonewalling. “Our trail leads to Russia,” the team concludes. “Not beyond doubt, but it’s currently the most probable explanation. We systematically
laid both things side by side: the secret reports about drone incidents and the routes of the ships. You can at least recognize a pattern.” They did not find a drone on any ship and they cannot prove causation, but they established the following: ships with Russian crews showed
Brussels has found a way to make decisions on blocking Russian assets without the consent of all EU member states, the Financial Times reports. This would allow the assets to be frozen indefinitely rather than having the blockade renewed every six months as is currently 1/9
the case. According to the publication, this is made possible by one of the EU treaty provisions stating that unanimous approval is not required in situations of economic shocks, which Brussels considers the war in Ukraine to be. Until now, when extending the freeze, there 2/9
was a risk that one EU country, for example Hungary, could oppose it, and without unanimous agreement the assets would be unfrozen. In early December, the European Commission approved two options for financing Ukraine for 2026 and 2027. The first plan involves providing 3/9
Russia is laying the groundwork to make the 1990s look like a walk in the park. Everyone says Russia is returning to the nineties, but what does that mean? The collapse of the Soviet Union was driven by many factors. Economic problems had already begun in the 1970s. The USSR
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economy was built on the export of energy resources (oil and gas), metals, timber and grain. Most of the revenue went into the arms race of the Cold War. This is very similar to Russia today, whose military budget has reached record levels. The 1973 oil crisis initially
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worked in the USSR's favor by increasing export revenues, but soon an event occurred that had a greater impact on the crisis of the 1990s than anything else - the war in Afghanistan. Although the Soviet Union spent about $20 billion on the war, this was negligible compared
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US-Russia negotiations will not lead to peace. Diplomacy with Russia does not work and this truth is something the Trump administration refuses to see. The more we learn about the details of the US-Russia deal on Ukraine, the clearer it becomes that this administration 1/9
is pursuing only personal gain, both in the form of stakes in Russian business and in the form of a share of the frozen Russian assets whose unfreezing after a peace deal the US administration insists on. Russia is not striving for any peace and has never done so - this is 2/9
obvious to anyone who truly understands the issue. Russia uses the same old Soviet negotiation tactics that Kaja Kallas described when she quoted Andrei Gromyko. Three things: first demand the maximum. Do not ask but demand something that has never been yours. Secondly, 3/9