Artur Rehi Profile picture
Sep 12, 2024 11 tweets 5 min read Read on X
After the loud announcement of the Russian counteroffensive in the Kursk region, the news from the Russian side has died down. The Russian Defense Ministry reports "the destruction of 12,000 Ukrainian soldiers," but there is no video, no photos, no statements about regaining
1/11 Image
control over major settlements. Putin gave the order to recapture the Kursk region by October 1, but the counteroffensive is stalling. Ukrainian soldiers write in Telegram that heavy fighting is underway, not without losses, but the counterattack was expected and
2/11 Image
the Russians were expected. Russia has now switched from bombing to frontal attacks, which allows for greater resource losses. Ukraine expected and prepared for this step and to inflict serious damage on the advancing troops. Apparently, Syrskyi plan has begun to work and
3/11 Image
Russia has transferred resources to the Kursk region and will transfer more to fulfill Putin's decree. If this becomes a priority for the Russian army, then we can expect a decrease in the intensity of Russia's offensive in the Donetsk region. The offensive on Pokrovsk has
4/11 Image
already started to stall, but this is compared to August. Russia is still storming there every day and there are very difficult battles. Autumn has come and soon it will be more difficult to conduct military operations. Especially to conduct an offensive. If Russia does
5/11 Image
not recapture the Kursk region before the rains start, it will be more difficult for it to do so. It will be even more difficult to do so if Ukraine starts to strike deep into Russia. Apparently, Great Britain is lifting restrictions on the use of Storm Shadow deep into
6/11 Image
Russian territory and there is talk of the United States making the same decision. Most likely, the missiles supplied will have a range of about 250 kilometers, because this is an export version, but within this radius there are many juicy targets for Ukrainian missiles.
7/11 Image
Logistics, airfields in Rostov-on-Don, Voronezh, Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk, troop columns - this is only a small list of targets that Ukraine can hit first. If talk of lifting restrictions turns out to be true, it will be another problem added to the huge list of difficulties
8/11 Image
in Russia. The red lines are over, the nuclear scarecrow does not work, the economy is at the limit and is about to collapse, resources are depleted. The equipment is running out, but there are still people. But in 2 years there is no longer a professional army and the army
9/11 Image
consists of cripples, alcoholics, criminals and old men with conscripts. But this army also causes colossal damage. It is precisely because of this composition that it has no morality and leaves behind a trail of war crimes and scorched earth. Although the "professional
10/11 Image
army" in Russia is not much different from this. But the crisis in the Russian army and management is growing. This is a downward spiral that cannot be stopped and sooner or later Russia will fall into a free fall to the bottom.
11/11 Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Artur Rehi

Artur Rehi Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ArturRehi

Mar 24
The story of internet shutdowns in Russia is not an accident and not a “temporary measure.” It is a system that has been built for years and has now simply begun to operate at full capacity. What many people saw in Moscow in March 2026 - the inability to pay a bill,
🧵 Image
open a map, or simply send a message - has long been the norm for other regions; Moscow has simply been the last to enter this reality. The timeline is important here: back in 2019, the law on the “sovereign internet” was adopted - formally to protect against external threats, Image
but in reality to create an infrastructure for centralized traffic control, forcing operators to install equipment under state supervision. This was followed by annual drills in which the network was tested for isolation and autonomous operation - no longer theory, but Image
Read 22 tweets
Mar 23
Exports of Russian oil through Baltic Sea ports - the main channel for shipping “black gold” abroad - have been completely halted, Reuters reports citing industry sources familiar with the situation. According to them, due to a drone attack on the Leningrad region, which 🧵 Image
became the largest since the start of the war and involved at least 60 UAVs, both Baltic ports - Primorsk and Ust-Luga - have stopped operations, and together they handle up to half of all oil exported from Russia. On the evening of March 22, Leningrad region governor Image
Alexander Drozdenko reported a drone attack on Primorsk, through which about 1 million barrels per day are exported. According to him, several fuel storage tanks caught fire in the port. Reuters sources also report that shipments at the port of Ust-Luga, through which oil Image
Read 6 tweets
Mar 19
Vladimir Putin has stopped appearing at public events in the Kremlin after details emerged about a US and Israeli operation to eliminate Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. As previously reported by Financial Times, before the strike Israeli intelligence tracked Image
Khamenei’s movements using hacked surveillance cameras. According to calculations by the outlet “Agentstvo,” the last time Putin held a public event in the Kremlin was on March 9 - a meeting on the situation in the global oil and gas market. After that, according to the Image
presidential press service, he met several times with regional governors, the Minister of Education, and the head of Sberbank, and also participated in Security Council meetings via video link. However, as “Agentstvo” notes, such meetings are often recorded in advance, Image
Read 11 tweets
Mar 18
The Estonian initiative currently being discussed in the EU to ban former Russian army combatants from entering the Schengen area should become a model for others. And here is why. The issue is not only that they pose a threat to society through the risk of committing crimes -
🧵 Image
these individuals also pose a threat to state integrity. At present, citizens from more than 120 countries and unrecognized territories are fighting on Russia’s side. The largest numbers of mercenaries come from countries such as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Nepal Image
Armenia, Moldova, Georgia, China, India, Egypt, as well as numerous African countries. These individuals are trained fighters who have undergone military preparation in an army where nearly 200,000 personnel are criminals recruited from penal colonies, pre-trial detention centers Image
Read 11 tweets
Mar 17
Russia’s war around Iran may provide only a temporary reprieve through higher oil prices but it cannot fix its deep economic problems - for higher oil revenues to meaningfully support the budget, prices would have to remain extremely high almost all year, which is unlikely
🧵 Image
given global pressures to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. On this backdrop the Russian budget has already entered a crisis phase - the deficit for the first two months was about 3.5 trillion rubles against an annual plan of 3.8 trillion rubles, meaning almost the entire planned Image
deficit accumulated in January–February, and much of the current spending now goes to servicing past obligations and debt rather than development. Additional confirmation of systemic crisis came unexpectedly from Vladimir Solovyov - in a broadcast seen in the Russian Far East Image
Read 15 tweets
Mar 10
The Baltic states and Finland are increasingly considering the use of natural landscapes as an element of defense on NATO’s eastern flank. The idea is not only to build traditional fortifications, but also to make the terrain itself less passable for a potential advancing
🧵 Image
force. Among the measures being discussed is the restoration of bogs, peatlands and other wetlands that could serve as natural barriers for heavy vehicles and slow the movement of troops. The idea is being actively discussed in Lithuania, Latvia and Finland. For example, Image
Latvia is considering restoring former peat extraction sites along its eastern border. After drainage canals are closed, such areas quickly fill with water and turn into bogs and water bodies. This approach would both repair environmental damage caused by past extraction and Image
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(