1. This is $1 trillion on a fiscal year basis. On an annualized basis, the US hit $ 1 trillion in interest a year ago. For the full fiscal year which ends Sept 30, total US interest will be over $1.2 trillion.
2. Some have pointed out that Interest on the debt has surpassed defense spending. Actually, it did that over a year ago. As of this moment, interest spending is the 2nd largest US outlay and it will surpass spending on Social Security in early 2025
3. Even if Powell cuts rates to 0 tomorrow (inflation would explode), cash interest expense will keep rising and will peak at $1.4 trillion. If the Fed cuts by "only" 100bps in the next year and keeps rate constant, interest will hit $2 trillion by 2026.
4. Income taxes (individual and corporate) now fund less than 50% of government spending. If Trump proposed to do away entirely with all income taxes, the US would need to raise "only" another $ 2.4 trillion in additional debt to the $4 trillion it raises every year.
5. The US does not have an income problem, it has a spending problem
6. Gold will soon start moving in $100 daily increments.
One final point. The next four years will see an unprecedented fiscal crisis.
Why does Trump even want to deal with this?
Just let Kamala have it so the US can reset faster.
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"We’ve found that AI can update historical data in our company models more quickly than doing so manually, but at six times the cost." - Goldman head of global equity research, Jim Covello
"We estimate that the AI infrastructure buildout will cost over $1tn in the next several years alone, which includes spending on data centers, utilities, and applications. So, the crucial question is: What $1tn problem will AI solve? Replacing low-wage jobs with tremendously costly technology is basically the polar opposite of the prior technology transitions I’ve witnessed in my thirty years of closely following the tech industry." - Covello
"people generally substantially overestimate what the technology is capable of today. In our experience, even basic summarization tasks often yield illegible and nonsensical results. This is not a matter of just some tweaks being required here and there; despite its expensive price tag, the technology is nowhere near where it needs to be in order to be useful for even such basic tasks" - Covello
Lots of false guesstimates on CRE market: the facts - size of CRE market is $11 trillion, $4.5 trillion in debt outstanding, banks account for 38% (small banks 28%, large banks 7%). The bulk of small bank deposit growth has gone into CRE
Why are some banks - like JPM - paying 0.01% on deposits? Because they don't need them, because they are still flooded with Fed reserves on which they collect hundreds of millions in interest daily. In fact, JPM is trying to slash its retail deposits which are a cost center
Other banks, mostly small regional banks, have seen their reserve exposure slide thanks to QT, and are increasingly reliant on depositors for funding. 88% of SIVB's total liabilities were deposits. Meanwhile, loan/deposit creation has collapsed due to imminent recession.
Big banks - which are not reliant on depositor funding - are incentivized to spark bank runs which will cripple small/regional banks. It's why JPMorgan was poaching SVB depositors on Thursday (per BBG).
Dallas Fed respondent: "We expect recession in the second half of this year. We already had a first round of layoffs. We are looking at each employee very carefully to learn who may have to be in a second wave of layoffs, if and when business slows down again."
Dallas Fed respondent: "It seems like someone turned off the spigot, as we have gotten stupid slow, as have others in our industry. We are not sure if it’s the Fed jacking with interest rates or else some sort of cyclical slowdown but it feels like business has ground to a halt."
Dallas Fed respondent: "February has been a slow month; it is hard to know why, but our outlook has worsened for both our business and retail activity in general."
Trust the Dallas Fed to publish redpilled respondents:
"Current federal policies are killing small businesses. From diesel prices to shortages, everything costs so much more. "
And more:
"We have a bleak outlook until the Federal Reserve stops interest hikes and the administration seeks energy independence."
And some more:
"The biggest issues facing our company are increased regulations and contact from federal, state and local entities regarding a variety of topics. Often it feels as a small business that the government does not want us to succeed."
"Never doubt the ability of the Federal Reserve to crush the economy when they intervene to stop inflation." - Dallas Fed survey respondent
"There is nothing positive in the economic outlook. The Federal Reserve should pause and let prior rate increases filter through before implementing further increases or they [will] overdo the contraction and make it harder to recover." - Another Dallas Fed respondent
"The rapid pace of wage growth is putting significant pressure on the business to outsource manufacturing outside the U.S." - a third respondent