For all those not worried about this, I want to help you to think as your opponent -- an important part of diplomacy. Imagine that during the Iraq War 2003-11, China or Russia had provided Iraqi militias with advanced weaponry, plus intelligence, plus targeting...
1/n
1/n
...information to attack and kill our troops. How would we have responded? What would the media and political pressure on our leaders to respond have been? Now imagine Russia and China decide that they'll give the Iraqi militias the weapons and targeting to strike Britain...
2/n
2/n
...itself. Britain says that this would constitute an act of war (especially since nobody believes the Iraqi militias are doing the intel and targeting needed to fire the weapons themselves), and Moscow or Beijing responded that the invasion of Iraq was illegal, that the...
3/n
3/n
...Iraqi militias are fighting a war of national survival, and that Britain can leave Iraq immediately to end the war. How would Britain respond to such missiles slamming into Boulmer and Catterick and Brize Norton and Sandhurst? Try to think seriously about that. Now...
4/n
4/n
...you have thought about it, ask "Is Russia going to react so much differently to us?"
Having done this exercise myself, I think it's entirely possible that such attacks will lead to some sort of dangerous escalation, namely a response from Russia that risks war. I am...
5/n
Having done this exercise myself, I think it's entirely possible that such attacks will lead to some sort of dangerous escalation, namely a response from Russia that risks war. I am...
5/n
...not certain, but I think it's possible. The problem is that the West has pushed and pushed and pushed, convinced of both its righteousness on this cause, and that Russia won't push back. Yet when Russia does respond to the crossing of red lines, such as the...
6/n
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...annexation of Crimea or the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, we act outraged and shocked and claim it was all unprovoked. It's heads your red lines mean nothing; tails you are acting like a lunatic. We are repeating this pattern with striking mainland Russia on behalf of...
7/n
7/n
...Ukraine. To be clear, I think there are very good reasons for Russia to be extremely careful about responding. At present, it has the upper hand on the battlefield, and it seems to me that one of the few ways to lose that would be to, say, bring NATO tactical airpower...
8/n
8/n
...into the theatre. Russia certainly won't want an allout war against NATO. Yet it might also feel the need to to re-establish deterrence to prevent even more damaging future escalations. I wish I could say that I thought the British government and foreign policy...
9/n
9/n
...establishment had thought this through. My fear is that they think they're in the right, so they should be able to do it. It is *your* responsibility as an engaged citizen, however, to think this through. You might think the Ukraine cause is 100% right. I'm not going...
10/n
10/n
...to disagree here, except to say that even if you *are* correct, you must think through the consequences of pursuing your righteous cause. One thing's for certain: even if Russia doesn't respond, we ought to think of incentives to get it to play ball after the war, otherwise my Iraq scenario will be made real in our next foreign adventure.
ENDS
ENDS
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