Thread by @joni_askola

1/21 Masters of Bluff: russia may want to project an image of invincibility, but it is largely relying on bluffing. russia is in fact weak and can be defeated. This invasion of Ukraine has been a monumental failure for russia in every possible way.

2/21 A lot of people think russia is unbeatable, falling for its bluff. These are often the same pro-russians who believed Ukraine had no chance from the start, even if some hide their sympathies.

3/21 russia is militarily and economically weak, but it excels at bluffing and disinformation. russia has managed to ride on the reputation of the former Soviet Union, bluffing to make people believe it has the second-strongest military in the world.

4/21 russia's failed invasion of Ukraine has been a disaster for russia on a military, political, and demographic level. russia's military has shown its weakness, and russia is more isolated than ever before under Putin's rule.

5/21 russia's demographics were already in a dire state before the war, and the conflict has only exacerbated the situation. Over a million men have left the labor force, either to fight for russia or to flee the country and avoid conscription.

6/21 When russia launched its full-scale invasion, Ukraine controlled 23 regional capitals. Despite russia's efforts, Ukraine still controls those same 23 capitals today, demonstrating the monumental failure of russia's invasion.

7/21 russia's stated goals of 'demilitarization and denazification' require a forced regime change and an authoritarian pro-russian puppet government with ongoing russian military presence. But russia is extremely unlikely to achieve these objectives.

8/21 The fact that russian troops are still struggling to push Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region, over two and a half years into the invasion, demonstrates the monumental failure of this military campaign.

9/21 This war has shown that russia's "red lines" are a complete joke. russia continues to make nuclear threats, but ultimately takes no meaningful action, demonstrating the hollowness of these threats.

10/21 Putin is so weak and scared that he doesn't even dare call for a new mobilization. russia keeps increasing pay and bonuses to attract enough men to sacrifice themselves for russia's imperialistic ambitions.

11/21 russia hides its true economic statistics and selectively publishes data in order to misrepresent the state of its economy. In reality, russia's economy is overheating and suffering significantly due to the ongoing war and the impact of international sanctions.

12/21 russia is suffering from rampant inflation, forcing its central bank to hike interest rates from 7.5% in June 2023 up to 19% currently. This reflects deeper structural problems of high government spending and labor shortages that are expected to worsen.

13/21 russia's economy has become heavily dependent on china, which is also facing its own economic challenges. Additionally, china's consumption of oil and gas is projected to peak in the near future, which will have severe negative implications for russia's economy.

14/21 russia's heavy economic dependence on china has made it far less sovereign and more vulnerable than it was before the war. china is using russia to try to weaken the West, while at the same time despising russia for its poor economic and military performance.

15/21 russia now relies on military aid from nations like north korea and iran to sustain a war it started, a far cry from the power of the former Soviet Union that past leaders would be ashamed to witness.

16/21 russia is losing military equipment at a rate faster than it can produce replacements, depleting its stockpile of Soviet-era equipment used to cover this deficit. This will make the war increasingly difficult for russia to sustain going forward.

17/21 russia is also politically unstable, as evidenced by Yevgeny Prigozhin's coup attempt over a year ago, where he was able to seize Rostov without facing resistance, suggesting russians do not strongly defend Putin's leadership.

18/21 russian disinformation operations are increasingly being exposed as the West has finally begun to recognize and address this longstanding threat that has caused significant harm for an extended period.

19/21 If Trump were to lose the next election, that would be another major blow to russia's interests. Regardless, russia's long-term prospects appear bleak, as it faces mounting challenges on multiple fronts.

20/21 While those of us who rightfully view russia as an adversary may be grateful that Putin's actions have damaged russia's potential, the fact that this has come at the immense cost of Ukrainian lives means he deserves to be judged at the Hague for his crimes at best.

21/21 Sources:
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.oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-…
economist.com/europe/2024/07…
apnews.com/article/russia…